The Note: Who Do You Trust … Blah, Blah, Blah

WASHINGTON, Oct. 22, 2004 — -- NOTED NOW

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ABC News Vote 2004: Bush vs. Kerry:

Walter Shapiro sucks you in with this lead: "Although it may be hard to remember amid the hyperbole and the hysteria of a presidential race so endless that it has encompassed two Britney Spears marriages, either George W. Bush or John Kerry will deliver his inaugural address in just 90 days." LINK

The Boston Globe team of Kornblut and Johnson write that yesterday's Kerry/Bush appeals "came in a pair of battleground states — Ohio for Kerry, Pennsylvania for Bush — and offered a glimpse of the competing strategies as Bush and Kerry seek votes from undecided voters. The president is warning of the perils of a Kerry presidency, while the Massachusetts senator is trying to present himself as visionary and hopeful, even as he jabs at Bush." LINK

The Washington Post 's Ceci Connolly Notes "The health care debate in this year's presidential contest has been largely boiled down to an argument over degree: Democrat John F. Kerry proposes an ambitious, costly expansion of health coverage, while President Bush takes a far more modest approach." LINK

The New York Times ' Glen Justice breaks down the money stats: "President Bush, Senator John Kerry and their political parties spent more than $120 million in the first two weeks of this month, running through an average of about $9 million a day." LINK

Not to mention the massive spending by the parties and the outside groups.

FEC reports through Oct. 13 show BC04 with more than $22 million in casho on hand, and the RNC with about $53 million, compared with KE04's $24.5 million and the DNC's $24 million-plus, he writes. Justice also Notes that the FEC is expected next week to decide whether the candidates and parties can use soft money to finance a recount.

The Wall Street Journal 's Jim Carlton looks at a small group of hunters and fishermen who consider themselves one-issue voters concerned about conservation and wildlife policies who say that their disappointment with the Bush Administration's approach to these issues is leading them to consider leaving behind their Republican roots this election. And, Carlton writes, the one-issue voter phenomenon cuts across both parties. "Each may represent only a small sliver of the electorate — but in an election this close, such slivers could turn out to matter." LINK

Staying on that sliver theme, Al Hunt writes in his Campaign Journal takes a look at how small subgroups (Catholics, independents, Midwestern voters, married women, and seniors) are leaning, based on the latest Wall Street Journal /NBC News poll. LINK

John Harwood offers further slicing and dicing of the poll, looking at which charges have stuck and affected voters' perceptions of the candidates, and how stem cell research and gay marriage are forming the front lines of the values war.

The Washington Post 's boy-at-heart Mark Leibovich on politics and baseball. LINK

Knight Ridder's Charles Homans looks at the impact of federal grants to battleground states. LINK

"Drawn by the war in Iraq and an uncertain economy, college students are showing more interest in politics this year than they did in 2000, and they favor Democratic presidential candidate John F. Kerry over President Bush by 13 percentage points, according to a poll released Thursday by Harvard University," reports the Los Angeles Times. LINK

Alan E. Wirzbicki probably has affixed a Limbaughian bullseye to his back with this story: the Program on International Policy Attitudes released a study finding "Supporters of President Bush are less knowledgeable about the president's foreign policy positions and are more likely to be mistaken about factual issues in world affairs than voters who back John F. Kerry," LINK

ABC News Vote 2004: Kerry-Edwards '04:

ABC News' Jake Tapper on Al Gore's visit to Florida. LINK

Glen Johnson of the Boston Globe succumbs to the Kerry/Red Sox metaphor. The Note will cut him a break … . The Kerry camp is reportedly struggling with that to do with it. "At the same time, as exemplified by carrying instead of wearing his cap, Kerry and his aides are wrestling with how to take advantage of the confluence of events, and limit the risk in doing so." LINK

The Boston Globe 's White and Regan ask and attempt to answer the question, "What, if any, are the political implications of the intersection of sports and politics?" LINK

Ron Brownstein of the Los Angeles Times looks at how the Southwest is the new South for Democrats, or so they hope. But it is Paul Maslin who (unsurprisingly) makes the all important final point here. As much as Kerry needs some help in the Southwest to win the White House, the Democrats will need to continue to harvest this region of the country for political survival in the future. LINK

Abe Estimada of the KGW.com staff writes about his interview with Kerry in which the presidential nominee says "he would leave Oregon's controversial medical marijuana and assisted suicide laws alone and blasted President George Bush for deepening budget deficits." LINK

The NY Daily News Notes the "Small 3' count, too" — Iowa, Minn. and Wis. are enjoying a lot more attention for their possible role in deciding the presidential race. LINK

The Philadelphia Inquirer's Pappas gives Teresa Heinz Kerry some post-Laura-Bush-comment coverage as she campaigned in the Keystone State. "While keeping the conversation on health-care issues, she also dropped several comments praising women, teachers and mothers." LINK

"A national coalition of American Islamic organizations endorsed Senator John F. Kerry for president Thursday, saying he would better restore the civil liberties many Muslims believed had been lost under the homeland security measures adopted after the Sept. 11 attacks," reports the Los Angeles Times. LINK

Jim VandeHei trolls the cabinet speculation grounds. LINK

At least three members of the Kerry steering committee in New Hampshire received this letter from Bill Bradley, who, as we remember, hasn't had the nicest things to say about John Kerry: (See: LINK)

But, reflecting the all-hands-on-deck nature of both sides, Bradley now pens: "I write to you as a private citizen who cares deeply about the future of our country. I urge you, as my supporter in the 2000 Democratic Presidential Primaries, to do everything you can in the remaining days of the presidential campaign to elect John Kerry. In New Hampshire, given the closeness of the race, a few votes could make all the difference …

"I truly believe that another four years of George Bush could seriously damage our country's long-term interests and our place in the world."

"John Kerry has shown in his campaign that he is more than an acceptable alternative to President Bush … John Kerry will serve our country well and will seek to improve the quality of life for the greatest number of Americans … "

"With my best wishes to you and your family … "

"Bill [hand signed with smiley face]"

ABC News Vote 2004: Kerry-Edwards '04: hungry like the goose:

The New York Times ' Jodi Wilgoren wraps Senator Kerry's hunting photo-op, which "was part of Mr. Kerry's lengthy effort to appeal, as a fellow sportsman, to the rural blue-collar voters who were considered critical to President Bush's victory in heartland states like this one in 2000." Detailing the BC04 reaction, Wilgoren Notes that Kerry's outfit and gun were borrowed. LINK

Deb Orin's write-up of Kerry's goose hit seems to be reflective enough of the press pool's bitterness about the whole event. LINK

The Boston Herald's Noelle Straub has the best sentence on the hunt: "Kerry's real target was not the goose, but conservative and swing voters in the Midwest." LINK

Could it backfire? The Philadelphia Inquirer's Fitzgerald slips in this little Note at the end of his write-up of Kerry's Thursday: "The National Rifle Association was not amused, running a full-page ad in the Youngstown Vindicator that said: 'If John Kerry thinks the Second Amendment is a photo op, he's Daffy.' Gun-rights groups oppose Kerry because of his support for the recently expired assault-weapons ban and other gun-control measures." LINK

Jim Gerstenzang of the Los Angeles Times looks at Bush and Cheney's reactions to Senator Kerry's hunting trip yesterday.LINK

President Bush mixed up one of his new stump lines, saying "He can run, he can even run in camo, but he cannot hide," and Cheney said "My personal opinion is his new camouflage jacket is an October disguise, an effort he's making to hide he votes against gun owners. The cover-up isn't going to work — you and I know the 2nd Amendment is more than just a photo opportunity."

ABC News Vote 2004: Bush-Cheney '04:

Nick Anderson and Ed Chen of the Los Angeles Times display perfect pitch on the politics of the president's med-mal push. LINK

"Bush's pitch, usually coupled with a lament about maternity wards forced to shut down and obstetricians forced out of practice because of high insurance bills, serves at least three political goals."

"It helps him appeal to women. It counters Democratic challenger John F. Kerry's arguments for government spending to expand access to health insurance. And, much as Democrats like to tie the president to his previous career in the oil industry, Bush's anti-litigation stance reminds voters that Kerry's vice presidential running mate, Senator John Edwards, was a trial lawyer before he came to Washington."

The New York Times ' Dick Stevenson was with President Bush in Pennsylvania yesterday, where he (the POTUS, not Dick) made a point of reaching out to Cardinal Justin Rigali, the head of the Philadelphia Archdiocese, and women voters, to whom he talked about limiting lawsuits against doctors. LINK

The Philadelphia Inquirer's Parmley and Remsen Note "The Bush campaign in Pennsylvania has been aggressively courting the Catholic vote, stressing the president's positions on stem-cell research, abortion and gay marriage. It has 10 religious-outreach staffers in the state, four or five of them assigned specifically to Catholic outreach." LINK

The New York Times ' David Rosenbaum fact-checks some of Bush's attacks on Kerry's health care plan. LINK

The Washington Post 's Barton Gellman and Dafna Linzer examine President Bush's record on the war on terror and find "results are sufficiently diffuse — and obscured in secrecy — to resist easy measure." "What is not in dispute, among scores of career national security officials and political appointees interviewed periodically since 2002, is that Bush's choice had opportunity costs — first in postwar Afghanistan, then elsewhere." LINK

The New York Times ' Neil Lewis looks at President Bush's record on judicial appointments, and two factors that helped make it that way it is: the involvement of the Federalist Society in giving advice on nominees, and Democrats' strategy in trying to block only certain judicial appointments. LINK

With his "relatively moderate travel schedule and an unusually narrow list of targeted travel states," Anne Kornblut and Rick Klein look at the president's travel and campaign schedule in the final sprint to Nov. 2, Noting that "Bush has spent six out of the last seven nights at the White House, stepping off the campaign trail some days in time to catch the baseball playoffs."LINK

Deb Orin reports, "President Bush's dad had them rolling in the aisles last night at the Al Smith charity dinner, telling how his wife, Barbara, is ready to clobber John Kerry for all his attacks on their son." LINK

The Washington Post 's Michael "Mike" Allen on Laura Bush's final election eve tour — and tone. LINK

A Washington Post correction in full: "In the Oct. 17 Sunday Source, the 'Gatherings' story described a Republican barbecue held to watch a presidential debate. The item reported 'the possibly unprecedented occurrence of a young woman in a cowboy hat pretending to make out with a poster of Dick Cheney.' The item should have explained that the woman was asked to pose with the vice president's picture by the photographer working for The Washington Post . The woman also did not pretend to "make out" with the picture; at the photographer's suggestion, she pretended to blow a kiss at it. The item should have explained that the party was hosted in response to a request from The Post , which discussed the decorations and recipes with the host and agreed to reimburse the cost of recipe ingredients. " LINK

The New York Post 's ed board writes, "The Post this morning proudly urges the reelection of President George W. Bush." LINK

ABC News Vote 2004: casting and counting:

The talented Norm Ornstein's column in Roll Call yesterday addressed the vital subject matter of how voting issues could make for a few different nail-biting Election Day worst-case scenarios. LINK

The Orlando Sentinel reports that "tens of thousands of Florida voters are also registered to vote in a second state, and more than 1,600 may have cast ballots in Florida and one of two other states in recent elections, taking advantage of an absence of safeguards to prevent illegal double voting." LINK

"In 1,650 cases, records indicate those voters cast ballots in Florida and another state in the 2000 or 2002 elections," reports the Sentinel. This may become critical if the election in Florida is as close as it was in 2000, but as a spokesman for the Florida State Attorney's office said, they have no way of insuring that votes are not cast by single individuals in multiple states.

Thomas Edsall on the RNC's complaint about Democratic coordination. LINK

Given the complaints they've already received alleging voter fraud in counties including Broward and Miami-Dade, the Florida Department of Law Enforcement has launched a statewide investigation, reports the Miami Herald 's Gary Fineout.LINK

Lucy Morgan of the St. Pete Times looks at the accusations that ACORN members forged voter registration documents and were paid for each voter they signed up. LINK

Pasco County, FL elections officials are warning voters not to give their absentee ballots to people claiming to be county elections officials. LINK

Partisan secretaries of state are in the spotlight and will remain so for at least the next 11 days. The Los Angeles Times' Glionna has the story. LINK

The Wall Street Journal 's Jeanne Cummings takes a look at how both parties are gearing up for legal challenges on Nov. 2, taking a specific look at Republicans' focus on voter fraud and Noting that the Democrats aren't the only ones with legions of lawyers. She examines an effort by Wisconsin Republicans called the Election Integrity Program, in which the party performs background checks on new voters using data obtained through the Freedom of Information Act. LINK

The Wall Street Journal 's ed board laments what the legal challenges could do to the election, closing with this cheery thought: "What we are seeing now isn't an attempt to prevent injustice but looks to be a calculated political strategy to create enough confusion at the polls to justify legal challenges that will cloud any close Presidential outcome. Let's hope we have a clear winner on Election Night, or we may all wish we were in Afghanistan."

Paul Krugman writes "we must not repeat the mistake of 2000 by refusing to acknowledge the possibility that a narrow Bush win, especially if it depends on Florida, rests on the systematic disenfranchisement of minority voters." LINK

Harry Esteve of the Oregonian reports on the unique measure that protects Oregon's mail in votes against fraud: voter signature verification. LINK

ABC News Vote 2004: casting and counting: watchdog:

One reader writes in with this information about absentee ballots in Colorado:

"I live in Jefferson County, Colorado, in a swing precinct in a swing congressional district (Colo-7, which Bob Beauprez won by 121 votes last

time) in a swing state. My absentee ballot came Monday. The return envelope — the one you HAVE to use, because the Affidavit of Voter that you sign and date is on it — bears a sticker with my name, address, precinct number AND PARTY AFFILIATION. On the outside of the envelope!"

"In other words, anyone who handles this envelope in the mails or at the county clerk's office could without opening it read the letters D-E-M right above my name, and if they were inclined to mischief, God knows what might happen. My husband's ballot envelope has no such sticker, just a bar code, the precinct codes and his name/address inkjetted on the back. He ordered his absentee ballots for both primary and general elections back last summer, before the Colorado primary in August. I ordered mine by returning a card supplied by a Democratic candidate in September."

We're looking into it, although we suspect that those who sign up with partisan groups or at political rallies are processed somewhat differently. If anyone else has a similar problem, please let us know. Our e-mail is politicalunit@abcnews.com.

Also: if you're worked for a Democratic or Republican or "non partisan" group that does voter registration and your experiences have led you to think that the company is doing something wrong, let us know: politicalunit@abcnews.com

ABC News Vote 2004: Florida:

The Boston Globe 's Scot Lehigh looks at what it takes for the Democrats to "woo" Florida. "For Kerry the keys are Miami-Dade, Palm Beach, and especially Broward County, where Gore beat Bush 67 percent to 31 percent. Which is why the most interesting news is this: Registration in the heavily Democratic county is up — way up. It has increased by 102,194, or almost 11 percent, just this year, and is almost 20 percent higher than in November 2000." LINK

Kris Hundley reports that some advertisers are having a tough time getting their spots on the air because of all of the political advertising in Florida. LINK

Amy Sherman of the Miami Herald details the efforts to get out the vote by gay activists in Broward County — motivated particularly by the president's support for a constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage. LINK

The Miami Herald 's Gary Fineout explains the Florida ballot initiative that would require parental notification for minors seeking abortions, and the sides that support and oppose it. LINK

Florida churches have become a hotbed of partisan political activity, write Alexandra Alter and Andrea Robinson of the Miami Herald , and the duo take a good look at the controversy surrounding it. LINK

ABC News Vote 2004: Pennsylvania:

Will Monday be John Kerry's last trip to Pennsylvania? The latest Quinnipiac University poll out this morning shows the Democrat with a five point lead among likely voters. Kerry gets 51 percent of the vote in the latest survey compared to President Bush's 46 percent.

The last Quinnipiac poll out of Pennsylvania was on October 12 and showed Kerry edging Bush by a narrower margin of 49 percent to 47 percent.

The Q-poll also has Senator Specter with a comfortable 15 point lead over Rep. Hoeffel and over the 50 percent mark.

Knight-Ridder's Steven Thomma analyzes a new Knight Ridder-MSNBC poll by Mason-Dixon that found Senator Kerry has made little progress in the battleground states Al Gore won in 2000. "In fact, the poll shows that three presidential debates, millions of dollars in campaign advertising and numerous visits from the candidates have changed few minds in those states in the last month." LINK

The same poll, the Philadelphia Inquirer's Tom Infield reports, found "a slight uptick of concern about domestic security and the war on terrorism" in the minds of Pennsylvania voters. LINK

The Philadelphia Inquirer reports that the president was met by friends and foes alike when he campaigned in Pennsylvania yesterday. LINK

The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette's Barnes writes, "If President Bush is to carry Pennsylvania on Nov. 2, it will take the help of the thousands of true believers who filled Hersheypark Stadium on a wet, chilly afternoon yesterday." LINK

Gen. Wesley Clark's campaign visits to East Pittsburgh and Johnstown on behalf of the Kerry-Edwards ticket gets some Pittsburgh Post-Gazette coverage. LINK

As does Condoleezza Rice's visit to Pittsburgh where she "vigorously defended" the administration's Iraq policies. LINK

The Philadelphia Inquirer continues its "21 Reasons to Elect John Kerry" series with an editorial today on his economic policies — explaining that President Bush is for big corporations and Senator Kerry is for everyone else. LINK

The Philadelphia Daily News reports that some Pennsylvania college students have been duped into changing their voter registration to Republican by being told they were signing a petition to legalize dope. LINK

Dennis Roddy of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette takes the story further by reporting "The canvassers have visited campuses asking students to sign petitions advocating lower auto insurance rates, medical marijuana or stricter rape laws, according to elections officials." LINK

"In multiple instances, students already registered to vote have had their registrations changed without their consent, elections officials said yesterday."

More: "Petition canvassers in Pennsylvania apparently did not identify themselves, although one told a University of Pittsburgh student that he was being paid by the Republican Party." LINK

The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette details the political mud-slinging being thrown in Westmoreland County leaving voters with questions of what's real and what's not. LINK

Special Note: The Note's friend and colleague Peter Jennings gets some local coverage in the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review today following his visit to the battleground state yesterday. LINK

ABC News Vote 2004: Ohio:

The Columbus Dispatch gives front page coverage to Kerry's stem cell address with Dana Reeve's appearance. LINK

The New York Post 's Ian Bishop writes, "The Ohio Republican Party is challenging ACT to disprove that a convicted murderer is still on its payroll. The Buckeye State GOP believes there is after cross-checking records." LINK

Two voting scams in Ohio you should be aware of. LINK

Bush's Canton visit brings Timken back into the news. LINK

"Secretary of State Ken Blackwell is under fire for saying that same-sex marriage is so absurd that it defies 'barnyard logic,'" reports the Cleveland Plain Dealer. LINK

ABC News Vote 2004: New Hampshire:

It will be no surprise to either campaign that Derry has been a hotbed of registration activity. LINK

ABC News Vote 2004: Colorado:

Since early voting began Monday, more than 65,000 people have already voted in Colorado, reports the Denver Post. "Early-voting numbers this year are expected to easily eclipse previous early-voting turnouts and, in some cases, dwarf interest in past primary and off-year elections, according to county clerks." LINK

Colorado Secretary of State Donetta Davidson has "laid down the law" for poll monitors. No cell phones, secrecy is King, and each poll watcher must take an oath. LINK

A group of citizens in Boulder County who are worried about privacy filed suit Thursday "to protest the planned use of individually numbered paper ballots," reports the Denver Post. In other spots of Colorado, "voters expressed concern about party labels on absentee ballot envelopes, voting machines that didn't work and absentee ballots that still haven't arrived," writes David Olinger. LINK

"Multimillionaire brewery executive Pete Coors put another $400,000 of his own money into Colorado's U.S. Senate race," reports the Denver Post — pushing the contest to become the most expensive race in Colorado history with nearly $14 million in the hopper so far. LINK

The Rocky Mountain News Notes Coors has become a "money magnet" of late. LINK

ABC News Vote 2004: Minnesota:

A Pioneer Press poll find Minnesota is absolutely still a toss-up — 47 percent of Minnesota voters would vote for President Bush, while 45 percent favor Senator John Kerry, and 2 percent for Ralph Nader. The margin of error is 4 percent. LINK

Senator Kerry's HUGE rally in Minneapolis last night gets this headline from the Star Tribune: "Kerry ignites Dome crowd." LINK

The Pioneer Press describes the crowd. "The crowd — 30,000 by organizers' estimates — may have been the largest gathered for a presidential candidate in two decades. It was a mix of longtime party activists, union members and newcomers energized by the election. They gathered in the autumn chill because, as one supporter said, "We don't want Bush in office anymore." LINK

Nick Coleman of the Star Tribune follows up with this differing opinion: "John Kerry came to Minneapolis and dropped in on the backside parking lot of the Metrodome and droned on for half an hour to a crowd of supporters who had been waiting for two hours in the cold before he was introduced by Walter Mondale and delivered his canned stump speech." LINK

Dick Cheney follows in Minnesota today: LINK

ABC News Vote 2004: New Mexico:

Steve Terrell of the Santa Fe New Mexican has the latest Mason Dixon poll numbers (Bush 49%, Kerry 44% — MOE: +/- 4%) and declares the race still too close to call. LINK

"Bush also is ahead in the Albuquerque metropolitan area 50 to 43 percent. Last month the New Mexican-KOB poll showed Kerry ahead in Albuquerque by 1 percent," writes Terrell. This may help explain why John Kerry's Saturday visit to Las Cruces will not be his last to the Land of Enchantment. The Senator will be in Albuquerque on Tuesday.

ABC News Vote 2004: Wisconsin:

Putting a spin on the new job numbers in Wisconsin. LINK

ABC News Vote 2004: the Senate:

USA Today 's Andrea Stone paints a bad picture for Senator Bunning. LINK

The Chicago Tribune's Chase and Ford report that Obama and Keyes "attacked each other's notion of morality, Christianity and even the purity of their African-American racial heritages in a televised debate." LINK

Nader-Camejo:

Ralph Nader is asking the Supreme Court of the United States to put him to the Pennsylvania ballot. Paperwork was filed by the campaign on Thursday. The AP reports, "In a sign the high court planned to move swiftly, Justice David Souter immediately requested that Pennsylvania officials file a response to Nader's emergency request by 2:30 today."LINK

The AP Notes Ralph Nader's presidential campaign is "struggling financially." At the beginning of October the independent candidate had $178,000 on hand. "He reported raising $440,000 in September, $100,000 of it through a personal loan." LINK

The Washington Post 's Manuel Roig-Franzia and Jonathan Finer look at Nader's "dwindling support." LINK

Politics: