The Note: History's Lessons, Part VII

— -- WASHINGTON, July 12

Is this the (late) October Surprise that will actually determine control of the House?LINK

Just asking.

A man who knows the answer, President Bush, along with the First Lady, left for Heiligendamm, Germany earlier this morning, where Le POTUS meets with Prime Minister Angela Merkel (and confronts a small army of protestors) before heading to St. Petersburg on Friday for a G8 summit, marking the first time Russia has hosted the annual meeting.LINK and LINK

Meanwhile, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld is on an unannounced trip to Iraq today.

Bob Novak discusses the Valerie Plame leak investigation on FNC's "Special Report with Brit Hume" at 6:00 pm ET and then does another Fox show later in the evening.

Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) joins Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-MA), Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY), Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ), and Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL) for a 1:45 pm ET press conference in the Senate Radio and Television Gallery to discuss a new report which shows that CEO, congressional, and presidential pay have increased while minimum wage workers have been left behind under the Bush economy.

According to Sen. Kennedy's office, since the last time the minimum wage was increased (1997), CEO's have seen a 73% increase in pay while the pay of members of Congress is up 24% and the President's salary has increased 100%.

Earlier in the day, Sen. Clinton joins Sen. Conrad Burns (R-MT) and others at a 10:00 am ET press conference to "demonstrate the need to provide federal funds for states and localities to implement the E9-1-1 service."

Bush Cabinet members gathered with members of Congress -- including Sen. Clinton, Sen. Ted Stevens (R-AK), and Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) -- to promote the release of "WOW! Facts 2006," a compendium of demographic data on women and minorities, at 9:00 am ET this morning.

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), Sen. Sam Brownback (R-KS), and Sen. Kennedy join religious leaders and others for an interfaith conference addressing the intersection of immigration reform and moral principles at 11:30 am ET.

Day two of Gov. Mark Warner's (D-VA) Iowa feet-wetting expedition is as busy as the first: at 10:00 am ET, Warner roundtables with teachers in Davenport; he attends a luncheon on behalf of State Senator Rogert Stewart at 12:15 pm ET; he accompanies the Democratic congressional candidate for Iowa's first district, Bruce Braley, to a 4:15 pm ET tour of a small business, Van G. Miller and Associates; and he joins Braley for he 6:00 pm ET opening of the latter's new Waterloo office.

Speaking of potential presidential hopefuls, Wednesday marks the middle of former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani's (R-NY) manic week of stumping for 2006 candidates before heading off to Bermuda with the wife. Today he sticks to the mid-Atlantic with an appearance on behalf of gubernatorial candidate Lynn Swann (R-PA) in King of Prussia, PA as well as for Gov. Robert Erlich (R-MD) in Baltimore, MD.

Not to be left out, Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee (R-AR) stays active, attending the second day of the National Forum on Education Policy in Minneapolis, MN.

Former House Speakers Newt Gingrich (R-GA) and Tom Foley (D-WA) appeared at the American Enterprise Institute earlier today to discuss Thomas Mann and Norman Ornstein's new book, "The Broken Branch: A Look at the Contemporary Congress." LINK

Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) keynotes the Center for American Progress' 2006 Campus Progress National Student Conference at 12:05 pm ET at DC's Marriott Wardman Park Hotel.

The Democrats' pick for the Ohio Senate, Rep. Sherrod Brown (D-OH), headlined a joint AFL-CIO and U.S. Business and Industry Council Conference, "Trade Summit 2006: Crisis and Opportunity," at 9:00 am ET at the National Press Club in Washington, DC.

The House Republican Conference met behind closed doors today at 9:00 am ET at the Capitol.

House Republicans, represented by Majority Whip Roy Blunt (R-MO), Conference Chairman Deborah Pryce (R-OH), and Rep. Ed Royce (R-CA) hold a 10:00 am ET press conference at the Capitol Hill Club to discuss the ways in which they are focused on "protecting American values."

In a dueling 10:00 am ET press conference, House Democratic leaders, including Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), Minority Whip Steny Hoyer (D-MD), Caucus Chairman James Clyburn (D-SC), and Rep. John Larson (D-CT) hold a news conference on "the Bush deficit economy" in the Cannon House Office Building.

The immigration debate continues to simmer at 9:30 am ET with Round Two of the Senate Judiciary Committee's investigation of comprehensive immigration reform; the full committee convened at the Dirksen Senate Office Building.

And it doesn't appear that the debate will die down anytime soon: House Majority Leader John Boehner (R-OH) and others will brief the press on a new calendar of border security hearings at 11:00 am ET. (See the "Politics of Immigration" section for details).

The Commerce Department released May's trade balance report at 8:30 am ET.

CEA chairman Edward Lazear speaks on American productivity at the National Economists Club luncheon at 12:00 pm ET.

Grover Norquist's Americans for Tax Reform holds its annual Cost of Government Day news conference at 2:15 pm ET in the Cannon House Office Building.

Voting Rights Act:
The Los Angeles Times' Wallsten and Neuman deliver a must-read look at how the Republican divide over the Voting Rights Act renewal, paired with the Republican divide over immigration, President Bush, Karl Rove, and Ken Mehlman's goal of being seen as an inclusive and outreaching party to minorities is far from being achieved. LINK

(Be sure to Note the reference to President Bush's possible plans to address the NAACP.)

(Also, Note this: "One House leadership aide, who requested anonymity because of the delicate nature of the negotiations [sighed] . . . at the turn of events since the renewal first sailed through the House Judiciary Committee this year, [and] . . .added: 'The reason we brought this whole thing up is to show people we're for extending the Voting Rights Act. Instead, we created our own problem.'")

(Finally, Note how fully the Gang of 500 is dismissive of the concerns of some conservative members on this issue).

At 2:45 pm ET, Congressional Black Caucus Chairman Melvin Watt (D-NC) holds a news conference to discuss the failure of the House of Representatives to vote to renew the Voting Rights Act. Simultaneously, the Black Leadership Forum and the National Coalition on Black Civic Participation holds a vigil outside the U.S. Capitol urging Congress to promptly reauthorize the Voting Rights Act without amendment.