The Note: With This Pen, I Do Veto

— -- WASHINGTON, July 19

Five and a half years into his White House tenure, President Bush gets to try a new aspect of the job today.

At 2:15 pm ET, President Bush is expected to make remarks on stem cell research policy in the East Room where he is expected to explain to the American people why he plans to make good on his veto threat of the bill that passed the Senate yesterday aimed at expanding federal funding for embryonic stem cell research. (HHS Secretary Michael Leavitt attempts to lay the ground work in a USA Today op-ed. LINK)

Our suggestion: play the long game and focus less on the veto action itself and more on the President's speech, to get a sense of whether he has his philosophical and rhetorical mojo working (or not).

The next few months will determine control of Congress and, thus, the fate of the balance of the Bush presidency. If he is to win national security, immigration, budget, and social issue wars at home, he is going to need to be focused and impressive, not easy pickings for the Rich-Krugman-Dowd-Stewart axis.

If today's remarks make you think of the best work of Karen Hughes and Mike Gerson, bet on Tom Reynolds (and on Republicans to hold the House). If the remarks make you think of the passionless and defensive words that come out of a bureaucratic process, double down on Rahm.

At noon ET, Sens. Reid (D-NV) and Schumer (D-NY) plan to hold a pen and pad briefing to "detail the political accountability of the Senate's 63-37 vote."

The Associated Press wraps the Ralph Reed defeat, the pending Cynthia McKinney runoff, and the Taylor victory in Georgia yesterday. LINK

It is legislative advocacy day at the NAACP convention at the Washington Convention Center. Sens. Hillary Clinton (D-NY), Ted Kennedy (D-MA), Barack Obama (D-IL) and Sam Brownback (R-KS) are all expected to address the morning session around 11:00 am ET. The group's annual conference concludes tomorrow with President Bush's tradition-bucking (or is it "tradition-embracing"?) appearance.

Majority Leader John Boehner (R-OH) preaches the Republican gospel on the war on terror, border security, and fiscal restraint to the Heritage Foundation at 12:30 pm ET in Washington, DC.

On global threats: "It's important to note [sic] what separates Republicans from Capitol Hill Democrats. Republicans recognize the threat and have constructed policies reliant on strength and purpose. Democrats have instead blundered towards an empty and cosmetic mindset that underscores a shared devotion to a weak and indecisive foreign policy forever queasy about America's role in the world," Rep. Boehner is expected to say according to excerpts released by his office.

On budget reform, Boehner is expected to say, "Unfortunately, there has been little desire from Democrats to join Republicans in exercising fiscal restraint. Minority Leader Pelosi recently spoke out against the practice of earmarking millions for home-state projects, yet she's bragged about nearly $500 million in earmarks in her own press releases."

For those who want to watch the Leader live on the Heritage website, here you go: LINK

Sen. Hillary Clinton unveils the first piece of her DLC "American Dream Initiative" at a DGA-sponsored press conference with Gov. Vlisack, Sen. Carper, and others at 2:00 pm ET in Washington, DC. The policy proposal is geared toward "increasing college enrollment and improving college graduation rates, in part, by making higher education more affordable." The rest of the "American Dream Initiative" is expected to be unveiled when Sen. Clinton addresses the DLC national conversation in Denver, CO on Monday July 24.

GOP Reps. Hastert, Blunt, and Cantor meet the press at 10:00 am ET following their conference meeting.

Democratic Reps. Pelosi, Hoyer, Clyburn, and Larson do much of the same at 10:00 am ET following their caucus meeting.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is schedule to testify before the Senate Banking Committee at 10:00 am ET on the state of the economy.

Sens. Joe Biden (D-DE) and Sam Brownback (R-KS) deliver energy speeches at the National Press Club to discuss energy security and plans to roll back American dependence on foreign oil at 9:15 am ET and 11:15 am ET, respectively.

The House Homeland Security Committee begins its immigration and border security hearings in Washington, DC.

The NDN Political Fund unveils the findings of its new Hispanic voter poll in Washington, DC.

The Senate Armed Services Committee holds a hearing on detainee trials at 10:00 am ET in light of the Supreme Court's Hamdan v. Rumsfeld ruling.

RNC Chairman Ken Mehlman attends a closed press fundraiser for the Tennessee Leader Victory Fund in Washington, DC.

Stem cell politics:
ABC News' Z. Byron Wolf reports that the key "stem cell research bill, H.R. 810, which negates the Bush Administration's 2001 order restricting federal funding only to embryonic stem cell lines already in existence in 2001, passed 63-37 in the Senate. That's four votes short of the 67 that would be needed in the Senate to overcome the promised presidential veto. A veto-proof margin in the House is 291 votes. H.R. 810 fell far short of that when it got 238 upon passage in May of 2005. So don't hold your breath for a veto override."

"The House threw an unexpected monkey wrench into the White House's stem cell plans -- by voting down S-2754, the bill that would have encouraged research on non-embryonic stem cells. Democrats derided this bill (though it passed the Senate 100-0) as nothing more than political cover for Bush and Republicans opposed to the embryonic stem cell bill," reports ABC News' Liz Marlantes.

The House is not expected to vote on the bill again today -- "but will just send the two that passed (expanding embryonic stem cell research and the ban on fetus farming) on to the President. Assuming this doesn't change, this means Bush will have to issue his first veto without the hoped-for political cover," adds Marlantes.

At least two potential Democratic presidential hopefuls, Gov. Tom Vilsack (D-IA) and Gov. Bill Richardson (D-NM), support expanded embryonic stem cell research capabilities; they joined five other governors to author a letter to Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-TN) and Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) exhorting the Senate to overturn President Bush's restrictions. The AP's Mike Glover reports: LINK

ABC News' Jake Tapper and Avery Miller report on the Senate's "intense" and "emotional" debate, and President Bush's upcoming veto. &LINK

The Washington Post's Charles Babington writes, that if, as expected, the House stem cell override fails "it would kill the issue for the 109th Congress but would probably propel it toward the front ranks of the November congressional election." LINK

The Chicago Tribune's Jeremy Manier and Judith Graham claim that Karl Rove's assessment to the Denver Post's editorial board that more "promise" lies with adult stem cells than embryonic stem cells "is inaccurate, according to most stem cell research scientists." and the Bush adviser is drifting further into "deeply contentious scientific territory." LINK