The Note: Faux-mentum?
— -- WASHINGTON, August 7
It is a truth universally believed by the Gang of 500, national Democrats, leading Connecticut Democrats, and even some of Joe Lieberman's own advisers that he will badly lose tomorrow's Nutmeg State Democrat Senate primary to Ned Lamont and will then succumb to heavy pressure to drop out of the race and not run as an independent -- an announcement he will make by sundown on Wednesday.
Even before today's new Quinnipiac poll showing the race at Lamont 51, Lieberman 45 (narrowed from 54-41 last week), The Note was more optimistic about Lieberman's chances than, well, than pretty much anyone. There is just something squirrelly about an August primary that adds a measure of unpredictability to the whole thing.
Why has, per the Q-piac data, the race tightened? Perhaps (a) Lieberman's negative radio spots highlighting Lamont's membership in an exclusive country club (and other voter contact messages the press doesn't even know about -- yet); (b) The Note's beloved "natural tightening" phenomenon; (c) voters being drawn to Lieberman's "come home, Connecticut" message; (d) the Bill Clinton endorsement; or, (e) other.
Still, brace yourself for 36 hours of speculation about when Chris Dodd will say, "Joe, it is time to go." (Remember: there are no network exit polls tomorrow, so everyone we'll have to be patient, well into primetime.)
There will also be during those same 36 hours (and beyond) a lot more speculating and punditing about What It All Means if Lieberman loses.
One thing it means: a lot of voters are passionate about the Iraq issue.
However, some of the WIAMs speculation has been and will be overblown. We hate to rain on the Chattering Class parade, but there is a danger in over interpreting a Lieberman loss in the primary. (And, remember, The Note is certain that no Connecticut Democrats will base their votes on what is written here.)
Why Joe Lieberman's case is sui generis:
1. He is the most conservative Democratic Senator in a Blue State.
2. No other Democrat has said "in matters of war, we undermine presidential credibility at our nation's peril," or written a Wall Street Journal op-ed piece talking about how much progress had been made in Iraq. LINK
3. Most incumbent Senators, even if they have no obvious opposition, raise plenty of money, build competent campaign structures, and take issue positions intended to shore up their political standing. Lieberman did none of those things.
4. Connecticut is a very liberal, very anti-war state.
So take a deep breath or two before you start to (a) assume Lieberman will lose, or (b) assume that there are big implications for 2006 and/or 2008 if he does.
And/but while it is too early to call the race, learn lessons from its outcome, or game out the sequence by which David Lightman, Bill Clinton, John Sweeney, Carter Eskew, Howard Dean, and Chris Dodd will get Lieberman to end his planned indy bid, it isn't too early to be thinking about how the Senator might spend the next few years.
Joe Lieberman's one dozen post-Senate career options:
1. George W. Bush's second Secretary of Defense, replacing pal Donald Rumsfeld.
2. Move to Florida to take advantage of early bird specials.
3. Fox News Channel commentator.
4. Become a blogger: LINK
5. Form a political consulting firm with Dan Gerstein to advise losing candidates.
6. Editor of the New Republic.
7. Become Larry King's primary substitute and heir apparent.
8. Borscht Belt comedian.
9. Yale Law School professor of international law.
10. Major League Baseball commissioner (what he actually wants to do).
11. Volunteer in Iraq.
12. Quietly lay the groundwork for Gore-Lieberman 2008.
That Quinnipiac Poll showing Lamont leading Lieberman 51-45 has liberal Democrats (who predominate in this primary) dividing 65-32 for Lamont. Moderate and conservative Democrats are 53-43 for Lieberman.
"Joe-Joe," ABC News' Jake Tapper on Sen. Lieberman's slight "bounce." LINK
On this final day of campaigning before voters go to the polls, Lieberman began the day by bringing breakfast to the Fire Fighters at the New Haven Fire House at 8:30 am ET. He then was scheduled to visit workers at a construction site in New Haven at 9:15 am ET.
He speak to employees at Mass Mutual in Enfield at 11:45 am ET, has lunch with customers at Rajun Cajun in Hartford at 12:50 pm ET, meets with customers at Vito's By The Park in Hartford at 5:20 pm ET, and walks through the Hartford Jazz Festival at 6:00 pm ET.
He finishes the day by joining customers for dinner at Anthony Jack's Restaurant in Southington at 7:10 pm ET, and then attending a Little League game between the Glastonbury American and the Colchester, VT team at 8:00 pm ET.
For his part, Ned Lamont was scheduled to visit at 5:00 am ET with third shift workers and ER staff at Lawrence & Memorial Hospital in New London, CT. Lamont wanted to thank them for taking care of 27 people—including three members of his own staff—who were injured last month when a station wagon unintentionally plowed into a crowd at the city's annual Sailfest.
Lamont was then scheduled to visit Electric Boat in Groton, CT from 6:15-7:15 am ET. Lamont is apparently spending most of the rest of the day doing media interviews.
Be sure to tune in to Nightline at 11:35 pm ET for Terry Moran's on-the-road interview with Sen. Lieberman. And you can expect Terry to file from out there on World News with Charles Gibson as well.
"Ney drops out of fall race," Pittsburgh Tribune-Review on embattled Rep. Bob Ney's (R-OH) decision not to seek re-election, citing family strain caused by the ongoing investigation into his relationship with disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff. LINK
"Bob Ney won't seek re-election," the Associated Press on the same, Noting also that state Sen. Joy Padgett (R-OH) will run in his place. LINK
For more on that race, see below. For more on how that impacts Republican chances of holding the seat, see tomorrow's Note.
With Secretary of State Rice by his side, President Bush makes a statement on efforts to halt the fighting in the Middle East at 10:00 am ET at the Bush ranch in Crawford, TX.
Back in Washington, DC, the National Press club Newsmaker Luncheon Program holds a discussion with Gov. George Pataki (R-NY) at 1:00 pm ET on "Energy Freedom: Putting an End to Foreign Oil's Dangerous Grip on America's Future." Gov. Pataki's office is billing his National Press Club appearance as a "major policy speech."
"Even as terrorists continue their barbaric efforts to prevent democracy in Iraq, even as our ally Israel continues to be attacked from the very lands it ceded in the name of peace, even as a number of governments throughout the Middle East continue to support, harbor, and encourage the terrorists that threaten America and our allies, we continue to spend hundreds of billions on the imported oil that funds their operations," Gov. Pataki is expected to say according to excerpts of the speech obtained by The Note.
More: "Let's replace the equivalent of every drop of OPEC oil - 25% of our current consumption -- with greater efficiency, greater domestic production, and greater use of petroleum alternatives, and let's commit to doing it within the next ten years."
Gov. Pataki plans to call for a "Petroleum Reduction Incentive" - production tax credits that get larger as vehicles become less dependent on petroleum.
Pataki previewed his energy ideas in Iowa over the weekend: LINK
One of the Democrats who is hoping to succeed Pataki as governor of New York will be the subject of a 2:00 pm ET book discussion at the American Enterprise Institute. "Spoiling for a Fight: The Rise of Eliot Spitzer" was reviewed over the weekend in the Washington Post. LINK
andNew York Times. LINK
Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) joins healthcare advocates and representatives from Planned Parenthood, NARAL Pro-Choice New York and Family Planning Advocates of New York State at a press conference in New York City to call on Acting FDA Commissioner Von Eschenbach to stop the continual delaying tactics and make a decision on Plan B.
Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) appears on "The Tonight Show With Jay Leno" at 11:35 pm ET.
Amnesty International sponsors a 4:30 pm ET vigil calling for "an immediate ceasefire in the Lebanon/Israel conflict outside of the State Department.
The National Foreign Trade Council holds a 10:00 am ET press conference to announce a lawsuit against the state of Illinois challenging the constitutionality of the Act to End Terrorism and Atrocities in the Sudan at the National Press Club.
Neither the House nor Senate is in session.
Sen. Lieberman's primary politics: if he loses, will he still run in November?:
In a Sunday must-read, Mark Pazniokas and David Lightman had Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT) finding himself "less comfortable talking about Sen. Lieberman's stated intention to continue as a petitioning candidate" if he loses to Lamont in Tuesday's primary. LINK
"'I'm not going to buy into this right now,' Dodd said Saturday. 'I'm going to spend four days campaigning for my friend, and I believe there's still a chance for him to win this.'"
"But he did not deny that a difficult conversation might be necessary. With Democrats in Connecticut trying to win three U.S. House seats held by Republicans, some Democrats say privately they will look to Dodd to help avoid a distracting three-way Senate race."
"'Wednesday will come, and we'll deal with Wednesday on Wednesday,' Dodd said. 'One thing at a time.'"
"Senator Suggests Lieberman Abandon Independent Run if He Stumbles in Primary," AP on Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D-NJ) suggesting that Sen. Lieberman abandon an independent run if he stumbles in the primary. LINK
When asked by ABC News' George Stephanopoulos about running as an independent in November, Sen. Lieberman said Friday in a piece that aired Sunday: "I'm not talking about what's going to happen after Tuesday, because I am confident that I'm going to win the primary on Tuesday." He went on to say, "I'm going to win the Democratic primary. And that's my last word on that question."
"'Scapegoat' Lieberman hits back," the Washington Times on the Lieberman-Lamont appearances on "This Week." LINK
Sen. Lieberman's primary politics: The Closing Argument:
"Lieberman Confronts Criticism Over Iraq," Dan Balz and Shailagh Murray in a story that has Del. Eleanor Holmes Norton (D-DC) calling Sen. Lieberman "dead wrong" on the war while Noting that many other Democrats in the House and Senate were on the same side as the Connecticut Senator, "including the front-runner for president of the United States, Hillary Clinton. She agrees with him, and is anybody going to vote her out of office anytime soon?"
"Lieberman Explains His Stance on Iraq," New York Times on Sen. Lieberman's "last ditch" effort to convince Connecticut voters that his support of the war is not support of President Bush.
Lieberman was sure to get his red meat line in, saying, "My opponent has done his best to distort my record, spending more than $4 million of his own money to mislead people -- or try -- into thinking that I am someone I am not . . . This is not unlike what Republicans did to Max Cleland."
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