The Note: Judgment Day
WASHINGTON, Nov. 2, 2004 — -- NOTED NOW
TODAY'S SCHEDULE (all times ET)
79 Days Until Inauguration Day
While you wait for someone at Fox News Channel to leak the first wave of exit polls to Drudge in the early afternoon (Just kidding: we neither expect that to happen nor condone it … ), you can go to an early movie, or you can read this:
Forget the triptych of Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio.
What matters today are the following three things.
Passion.
GOTV technical competence.
Luck.
President Bush or Senator Kerry — whichever one has supporters with more of two of THOSE three will win this election.
So: good luck to all our (best) sources.
Today is a day for last-minute robo calls, last-minute campaigning, and deft and quick re-allocation of resources based on vote goals met and unmet.
And congratulations to the young operatives on both sides, who worked hard and played by the rules to help someone they believe in get elected to the highest office in the land.
Like Linda Spidalieri, the 30-something absolute rock star from an immigrant Democrat family who has worked all day at her "real" job and then spent her nights and weekends volunteering 40+ hours per week for President Bush in Ohio. One night this week she stayed until 4:00 am doing data entry to help the campaign keep up.
And like the already-legendary Chris Bannister, a 21-year old-college student, a grizzled veteran of Iowa field who stayed up every night the last few months of the campaign compiling the field reports for John Kerry's Ohio team. In the meantime, his parents hope he goes back and finishes DePaul — and so does his college girlfriend.
As for figuring out who is going to win — from the presidential contest on down — throughout the day, we recommend you turn to ABC News.
To make sure that every legal vote is counted fairly, follow our Ballot Watch on Noted Now (LINK) with all the latest news on how the casting and counting of votes is proceeding, particularly in the battleground states.
If you see any problems in the voting process, e-mail us here: mailto:politicalunit@abcnews.com
There is — right NOW — full election coverage all day on ABC News Now, the digital cable and streaming video channel. Video on your PC and more information available here. LINK
There is also coverage right now and throughout the day and night on ABCNews.com and ABC News Radio
Check out "World News Tonight with Peter Jennings" at its regular time in the East.
And then at 7:00 pm ET, the place to be will be our primetime coverage, anchored by Peter Jennings — on the air until (gulp) the Nation has a presidential winner (or until we are deep, deep in the throes of any decisive overtime counting).
Mr. Jennings will be joined by George Stephanopoulos, Mark Halperin, George Will, Fareed Zakaria, Cokie Roberts, and other analysts and guests from around the country.
Jake Tapper mans the Ballot Watch desk, along with a network of correspondents in the key battleground states.
Kate Snow will bring you results from the Senate, House and governors' races.
Viewers' guides to election night are now a dime a dozen — you can buy them on e-Bay or hear them around the water cooler.
So we direct your focus onto just the most urgent things to watch for as the earliest polls close.
The first states to close at 7:00 pm ET are parts of Florida, New Hampshire, all of Georgia, Virginia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, and Vermont.
At 7:30 pm ET polls close in Ohio, West Virginia, and North Carolina.
At 8:00 pm ET, polls are scheduled to close in the rest of Florida and New Hampshire and all of Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Missouri, Tennessee, Maryland, Alabama, Connecticut, Oklahoma, Mississippi, Maine, the District of Columbia, and Delaware.
Here's some of what we'll be watching there and nationally early on:
1. Whether Jim Bunning holds off Dan Mongiardo.
2. Where Kerry runs in Virginia and Missouri and some of the fringe battleground states; Bush's margin in Tennessee and Lousiana.
3. What Ed Rendell and Tony Fabrizio say on MSNBC and Fox, respectfully, about their party's chances.
4. The early popular vote returns for Nader.
5. In the exit polls: the number of people who say terrorism was their key issue and Bush's job performance number.
But what will really matter to most Note readers and viewers of ABC News coverage will be the precious electoral votes in just a handful of states.
For these key states, here are the poll opening and closing times, the key ballot watch concerns to monitor, and the statistics that the pros will be watching to help them determine where the state will ultimately fall.
OHIO (20):
Polls open at 6:30 am ET and close at 7:30 pm ET.
Ballot Watch: Provisional ballots can be cast in the Buckeye State when a voter's name does not appear on the roster or if s/he forgot an ID. These provisional ballots can be cast only in a voter's home precinct. The counting of provisional ballots does not begin for 10 days. The majority of voters cast punch card ballots — 69 of 88 counties. The others use optical scan and electronic voting devices. Recounts are automatically triggered at a difference of one-fourth of 1 percent or less; it is up to the Secretary of State to order a statewide recount.
Vote Watch: (1) Who wins State Issue 1 (the same-sex marriage ban) and by how much — the higher the "yes" vote, the better for Bush; (2) African-American turnout in Cleveland; and (3) the vote and margins in Franklin, Stark, and Montgomery counties.
Weather: In Democratic Cleveland, "Occasional rain. Highs in the lower 60s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph becoming northwest. Chance of rain 80 percent." Even worse in Cincinnati, where the Republicans have their eye: "Showers. Highs in the lower 70s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph this morning. Becoming northwest this afternoon. Chance of rain 100 percent."
FLORIDA (27):
Florida's panhandle is on Central Time. Across the state, polls will open at 7:00 am ET at the earliest and close at 8:00 pm ET at the latest.
Ballot Watch: Voters are required to present an ID at a polling place or otherwise file a provisional ballot. Those who vote in the wrong precinct do not have their votes counted at all. Florida uses a mix of optical scan and touch-screen voting machines, but use of the new machines has still not been perfected. In 2002 there were many flaws and some poll workers didn't know how to operate the machines. In accordance with a court order, the machines print a log of all ballots cast as a form of a paper trail. However, there is no way to be completely sure that the log is accurate and that the computer accurately tabulated the votes.
Vote Watch: (1) Bush's margin in North Florida (above 60 percent?); (2) Kerry's in Palm Beach County (high 50s or low 50s?); (3) who wins Tampa and Orlando media markets and by how much; and (4) African-American turnout.
Weather: Democratic Miami is "mostly sunny early in the morning then becoming partly sunny. A slight chance of showers." The all-important corridor between Orlando and Tampa I-4 is Florida perfection: 87 degrees, 10 mph wind. But Red Pensacola is "Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows around 70. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent."
MAINE (4):
Polls open at 6:00 am ET at the earliest and close at 8:00 pm ET.
Ballot watch: Maine has not used punch card or lever voting machines for many years. The state currently uses paper ballots which are hand counted or optically scanned and tabulated by a machine.
Vote watch: Obviously, Bush's effort for a majority in the 2nd Congressional District.
Weather: In "battleground" CD 2: "Partly cloudy this morning. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain this afternoon. Highs in the upper 40s. North winds 5 to 10 mph … Becoming east this afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent."
NEW HAMPSHIRE (4):
Polls open at different times — the earliest at 6:00 am ET. They close at 8:00 pm ET.
Ballot Watch: Roughly 100 towns/municipalities use optical scan voting machines, including all of the heavily populated areas. The rest of New Hampshire voters perform their civic duty by marking an "X" on a paper ballot, which gets counted by hand. No punch card ballot allowed! There are no partisan canvassing boards; "moderators" count votes at the polling places in public view or at a "counting center."
Vote Watch: (1) How the Southern Tier voters who moved from Massachusetts voted; and (2) the margin of the leading candidate's lead in the towns between Manchester and Nashua.
Weather: Um … . It's New Hampshire in November. If they ain't used to it now … "Partly cloudy this morning. Then becoming cloudy. A chance of rain early this afternoon. Rain likely late. Highs in the mid 40s. North winds around 5 mph. Increasing to southeast 10 mph with gusts up to 25 mph late this morning and afternoon. Chance of precipitation 70 percent."
PENNSYLVANIA (21):
Polls open at 7:00 am ET and close at 8:00 pm ET.
Ballot Watch: Pennsylvania has not yet taken advantage of HAVA funds to upgrade its voting equipment — election officials didn't believe it would be done in time for the election. As such, the state still uses punch card, optical, lever, and direct recording voting machines. Provisional ballots can be given to those who do not appear on voter registers, or are otherwise deemed ineligible to vote. County officials will determine whether those ballots count within three days of the election.
Vote Watch: (1) How well Bush does among women in the suburbs of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh; (2) who wins and by how much in Allentown; (3) how Kerry does in Erie; and (4) African-American turnout.
Weather: The all-important Philadelphia and suburbs is "Mostly cloudy. Highs in the lower 60s. Southeast winds around 10 mph." The weather in beautiful Central City, PA , where Bush needs big margins, could be rainy: "Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain. Mainly in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 60s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent."
MICHIGAN (17):
Polls open are various times. At their earliest, it's at 6:00 am ET. They close at 9:00 pm ET.
Ballot watch: Michigan's voting is administered locally among (literally) thousands of elections officials, making it the most decentralized system in the country. Some counties use multiple systems, especially in high population areas. There are eight different systems in use statewide. 48 hours is given for recount petitions. Pray none are filed.
Vote Watch: (1) Look at the Michigan AFL-CIO's work — the labor vote — both the contribution and vote share per candidate; and (2) how well Kerry does in Detroit and its suburbs.
Weather: Detroit, Detroit, Detroit: blustery! "Occasional showers, mainly before 9:00 am. Chance of precipitation is 90 percent. High around 56. Breezy, with a north northwest wind between 14 and 21 mph."
MINNESOTA (10):
Polls open at 8:00 am ET at the earliest, and all close at 9:00 pm ET.
Ballot Watch: In Minnesota two-thirds of the state use optical scan machines and the rest use paper ballot, most of which are read and counted by scanners. At the push of a button tabulated tallies are printed. Minnesota has no early voting, and no provisional ballots either. The state has same-day registration.
Vote Watch: (1) Will Kerry's margin in the Twin Cities help him overcome deficits in the rural part of the state? (2) Does Bush win by a larger margin in the ring around the Twin Cities than he did in 2000? (3) Can Kerry improve in Olmstead County (Rochester) from what Al Gore got?
Weather: All over the state, like San Francisco in the summer: crisp and beautiful.
NEW MEXICO (5):
Polls open at 9:00 am ET and close at 9:00 pm ET.
Ballot watch: 22 counties (including all of the larger counties) use direct-record electronic voting. (Many use the first generation electronic machines with buttons not touch-screen.) 11 counties (smaller counties for the most part) use optical scan. There were significant voting problems in Bernalillo County in 2000.
Vote watch: The margin by which the leading candidate is winning Bernalillo County and the weather in Little Texas.
Weather: Are you kidding? Sunny!
WISCONSIN (10):
Polls open at 8:00 am ET and close at 9:00 pm ET.
Ballot Watch: The state has a very decentrilized system. Voters can register on Election Day in Wisconsin. Counties with fewer than 5,000 have no rolls. Wisconsin doesn't give special consideration to overseas ballots: they must be in by the close of polls. The state uses optical scan (87 percent), paper (10 percent), lever, and punch card balloting.
Vote Watch: (1) Does Bush overperform his 2000 margin in Brown County?; (2) Kerry's margin in Milwaukee; and (3) who wins the surburbs.
Weather: Kitties and puppies in blue Milwaukee: "Occasional rain before 9:00 am, then a chance for drizzle before ending. Chance of precipitation is 80 percent. High near 47. North wind between 14 and 20 mph." Green Bay is mostly cloudy.
IOWA (7):
Polls open at 8:00 am ET and close at 10:00 pm ET.
Ballot watch: Most of Iowa uses optical scan systems. Only seven counties use levers, and one has paper ballots. No punch card ballots are used.
However, there is no statewide voter database and no ID is necessary at the polls — which can set the stage for voter fraud accusations and the casting of more provisional ballots. But the state has a good reputation for clean elections, even with all those pre-election kerfluffles.
Vote watch: (1) Who wins the I-80 corridor; (2) can Bush get 45 to 50 percent of the vote in Dubuque County? (3) Does Kerry have a 15,000+ vote margin coming out of Polk?
Weather: Lazy hazy all over.
NEVADA (5):
Polls open at 10:00 am ET and close at 10:00 pm ET.
Ballot Watch: Nevada will be using Direct Recording Electronic ("DRE"— read: touch screen voting) machines statewide. These machines, unlike Florida, all print out voter verifiable receipts to allow voters to see their ballots before finalizing them. Upon approval, the vote is recorded.
Vote Watch: (1) In Nevada, watch Kerry's margin in Clark County — it needs to be superhigh, or Bush will win the state. (2) watch for the strength of Bush's margins around Reno.
Weather: Sunny.
National weather outlook: LINK
After the 22-rally, 13-state flurry of activity yesterday, the four principals have a much more relaxed day as their legions of supporters fan out to bring voters to the polls in what has been described as the most extensive and most expensive GOTV effort in history. Some quick highlights:
—Bush-Cheney's "72-hour program" claims more than 250,00 active volunteers, thousands of "coalition" leaders, and 3,000 paid staff on the ground.
—Kerry-Edwards and the DNC claim 250,00 active volunteers, 25,000 precinct leaders, and 2,500 paid staff members on the ground.
—Unions: AFL-CIO is spending $44 million, AFSCME is spending $48 million, SEIU is spending $65 million, and overall, labor groups hope to have 25,000 going door-to-door.
—America Coming Together will probably have spent in excess of $150 million by today, including employing 30,000 people in Iowa (making the group the state's largest employer, temporarily).
—Groups such as the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the NRA, National Right to Life, statewide Christian Coalitions, and spending tens of millions of dollars on behalf of the Bush-Cheney ticket.
President and Laura Bush voted in Crawford, TX this morning, and then fly to Columbus, OH to thank volunteers, make a few phone calls, and maybe even knock on some doors at about 11:45 am ET. They return to the White House at 2:05 pm. The president will watch election returns at the White House with his family, including his parents, and is expected to speak at the Reagan building after the returns have come in.
Senator Kerry visited a polling place in LaCrosse, WI at 8:20 ET this morning to take advantage of the state's same-day registration rule (and the city's proximity to Minnesota and Iowa), then flies to Boston to have his ritual Election Day lunch at the Union Oyster House, vote, and watch returns at home with his family. Kerry and Edwards speak in Copley Square tonight. (Both Kerry and Edwards also conduct satellite interviews from Boston today.)
Vice President and Lynne Cheney vote this morning at 9:00 am ET at the New Wilson Fire House in Wilson, WY, then fly to Waukesha, WI to thank campaign volunteers before heading to Washington.
Senator Edwards visits two polling places in Florida this morning, one in Tampa at 9:30 am ET and another in Orlando at 11:55 am ET, before (running in Orlando and) heading to Boston to hold at Copley.
Must-read newspaper stories with a half-life of more than 5 hours:
State of the Bush campaign:
The closer you read, the more you get the sense of a shift in the Bush campaign toward "wistfulness," as perceived by the reporters covering them.
The Los Angeles Times' leads:
"Amid all the hope and hoopla of the final day of President Bush's reelection campaign, there was a distinct note of wistfulness, of something coming to an end."
"At stop after stop, the exuberance of Senator John F. Kerry's supporters was palpable Monday as his campaign did one final lap around Florida, Wisconsin, Michigan and Ohio." LINK and LINK
More: Keen and Benedetto write the best wrap of the last day George Bush will ever spend campaigning for himself, Noting that Bush has been somewhat nostalgic behind the scenes. LINK
Mike Allen has a peak into the, uhm, wistfulness, within the Bush campaign. LINK
Means nothing: Dowd and McKinnon say they like their hand.
Ballot Watch:
The 6th Circuit Court of Appeals overnight allowed Ohio Republicans to challenge newly registered voters. LINK
The Washington Post 's Becker and Eggen have a good preview of the likely post-election challenges. LINK Ads: If you never read a single story about the ad campaign this year, or if you read every one, read Nick Anderson's story today: LINK State of the race: If you read one survey of the landscape, read the Washington Post 's Balz and Broder's version. LINK And if you read one College roundup, let it be Professor Brownstein's: LINK GOTV: The New York Times ' Bob McFadden has an excellent wrap of the country's GOTV efforts. LINK The Washington Post 's Harris and Farhi have an excellent look at the ground game in Ohio. LINK KE04: The Washington Post 's Romano and Wagner have a good look at a cautiously optimistic Kerry campaign. LINK Other: George Will provides some fine trivia fodder and tells us all, above all else, to relax. LINK Alan Murray makes a convincing case for a truly divided electorate. LINK Shailagh Murray of the Wall Street Journal has a nice piece on the coattails the presidential candidates may ride to victory in Florida. LINK Dueling Vote for Me Election Day editorials by the candidates in the USA Today : LINK and LINK TODAY SCHEDULE (all times Eastern): (Earliest poll opening and latest poll closing times listed)
—6:00 am: Polls in Connecticut open
—6:00 am: Polls in Kentucky open
—6:00 am: Polls in Maine open
—6:00 am: Polls in Michigan open
—6:00 am: Polls in New Hampshire open
—6:00 am: Polls in New Jersey open
—6:00 am: Polls in New York open
—6:00 am: Polls in Rhode Island open
—6:00 am: Polls in Vermont open
—6:00 am: Polls in Virginia open
—6:30 am: Polls in North Carolina open
—6:30 am: Polls in Ohio open
—6:30 am: Polls in West Virginia open
—7:00 am: Polls in Alabama open
—7:00 am: Polls in Delaware open
—7:00 am: Polls in District of Colombia open
—7:00 am: Polls in Florida open
—7:00 am: Polls in Georgia open
—7:00 am: Polls in Illinois open
—7:00 am: Polls in Indiana open
—7:00 am: Polls in Louisiana open
—7:00 am: Polls in Maryland open
—7:00 am: Polls in Massachusetts open
—7:00 am: Polls in Missouri open
—7:00 am: Polls in Pennsylvania open
—7:00 am: Polls in South Carolina open
—7:00 am: Polls in Tennessee open
—7:00 am: Polls in Kansas open
—8:00 am: Polls in Minnesota open
—8:00 am: Polls in Arizona open
—8:00 am: Polls in Iowa open
—8:00 am: Polls in Mississippi open
—8:00 am: Polls in North Dakota open
—8:00 am: Polls in Oklahoma open
—8:00 am: Polls in South Dakota open
—8:00 am: Polls in Texas open
—8:00 am: Polls in Wisconsin open
—8:20 am: Senator John Kerry visits a polling place, LaCrosse, WI
—8:30 am: Polls in Arkansas open
— 8:35 am: President and Laura Bush vote at the Crawford Fire Station, Crawford, TX
—9:00 am: Polls in Colorado open
—9:00 am: Polls in Montana open
—9:00 am: Polls in Nebraska open
—9:00 am: Polls in New Mexico open
—9:00 am: Polls in Oregon open
—9:00 am: Polls in Utah open
—9:00 am: Polls in Wyoming open
—9:00 am: Vice President and Lynne Cheney vote at the New Wilson Fire House, Wilson, WY
—9:30 am: Senator John Edwards visits a polling place, Tampa, FL
—10:00 am: Polls in California open
—10:00 am: Polls in Idaho open
—10:00 am: Polls in Nevada open
—10:00 am: Polls in Washington open
—11:00 am: Polls in Alaska open
—11:45 pm: President Bush visits with volunteers and supporters, Columbus, OH
—11:55 am: Senator Edwards visits a polling place, Orlando, FL
—12:00 pm: Polls in Hawaii open
—12:15 pm: Senator Kerry arrives at Hanscom Air Force Base, Bedford, MA
—1:15 pm: Vice President and Lynne Cheney hold a Victory 2004 rally at the Waukesha County Victory Center, Waukesha, WI
— 2:05 pm: President and Mrs. Bush arrive at the White House
—TBD: Senator Kerry has lunch at the Union Oyster House and votes, Boston, MA
—7:00 pm: Polls in Kentucky close
—7:00 pm: Polls in Vermont close
—7:00 pm: Polls in Virginia close
—7:00 pm: Polls in Georgia close
—7:00 pm: Polls in Indiana close
—7:00 pm: Polls in South Carolina close
—7:30 pm: Polls in North Carolina close
—7:30 pm: Polls in Ohio close
—7:30 pm: Polls in West Virginia close
—8:00 pm: Polls in Connecticut close
—8:00 pm: Polls in Maine close
—8:00 pm: Polls in New Hampshire close
—8:00 pm: Polls in New Jersey close
—8:00 pm: Polls in Alabama close
—8:00 pm: Polls in Delaware close
—8:00 pm: Polls in District of Colombia close
—8:00 pm: Polls in Florida close
—8:00 pm: Polls in Illinois close
—8:00 pm: Polls in Maryland close
—8:00 pm: Polls in Massachusetts close
—8:00 pm: Polls in Missouri close
—8:00 pm: Polls in Pennsylvania close
—8:00 pm: Polls in Tennessee close
—8:00 pm: Polls in Mississippi close
—8:00 pm: Polls in Oklahoma close
—8:30 pm: Polls in Arkansas close
—9:00 pm: Polls in Michigan close
—9:00 pm: Polls in New York close
—9:00 pm: Polls in Rhode Island close
—9:00 pm: Polls in Louisiana close
—9:00 pm: Polls in Arizona close
—9:00 pm: Polls in North Dakota close
—9:00 pm: Polls in South Dakota close
—9:00 pm: Polls in Texas close
—9:00 pm: Polls in Wisconsin close
—9:00 pm: Polls in Colorado close
—9:00 pm: Polls in Nebraska close
—9:00 pm: Polls in New Mexico close
—9:00 pm: Polls in Wyoming close
—9:00 pm: Polls in Kansas close
—9:00 pm: Polls in Minnesota close
—9:15 pm: Senator Edwards arrives at Hanscom Air Force Base, Bedford, MA
—10:00 pm: Polls in Iowa close
—10:00 pm: Polls in Montana close
—10:00 pm: Polls in Utah close
—10:00 pm: Polls in Nevada close
—11:00 pm: Polls in Oregon close
—11:00 pm: Polls in California close
—11:00 pm: Polls in Idaho close
—11:00 pm: Polls in Washington close
—11:00 pm: Polls in Hawaii close
—1:00 am: Polls in Alaska close
