The Note: Manhattan, U.S.A

— -- WASHINGTON, Sep. 18

The two presidents -- possessed of radically different world views -- are both in Manhattan for several days this week, but they have no plans to meet. Still, as they both hold bilateral sessions with various other world leaders, they will surely keep a close watch on one another.

We speak, of course, of President Bush and former President Clinton.

Like day is followed by night, every election year, the 9/11 anniversary (during which the press obsesses on President Bush's ability to "keep the focus" on national security right before Election Day, to the benefit of his Daddy Party) is followed by the UNGA, keyNoted by the POTUS's tough-love speech (during which the press obsesses on President Bush's ability to "keep the focus" on national security right before Election Day, to the benefit of his Daddy Party).

Democrats, afraid of the more-organized-than-all-of-them-except-Steve-Rosenthal-and-Michael-Whouley-actually-realize Republican turnout machine, are comforting themselves with the Notion that this is the last week before November during which the President can "keep the focus" on the war on terror.

This cold comfort might be misguided for three reasons. First, do not underestimate the White House's ability to find week-by-week reasons to raise other national security bogeymen.

Second, do not underestimate the White House's ability to (a) smash the glass jaws of inexperienced Democratic candidates; (b) use taxestaxestaxes; and (c) microtarget social issues galore.

And, three, digest these two must-read stories that suggest that (i) "we are in the struggle to preserve civilization as we know it" might pack more of an emotional wallop than "Together, America can do better to change." And (ii) it is possible that the last few weeks have baked-into-the-cakes of voters' minds that this election is about who will keep America safer.

1. The Washington Post's Shankar Vedantam, writing in a different context, says, "George E. Marcus, president of the International Society of Political Psychology, said modern research confirms that unless political ads evoke emotional responses, they don't have much effect. Voters, he explained, need to be emotionally primed in some way before they will pay attention." LINK

"The research is of importance to politicians for obvious reasons -- and partly explains the enduring attraction of negative advertising -- but it is also important to voters, because it suggests that the reason candidates seem appealing often has little to do with their ideas. Political campaigns are won and lost at a more emotional and subtle level.. . . ""It is comparatively difficult to persuade anyone to change their mind on an issue. What works much better, because it influences people at an emotional and subtle level, is to get people to focus on a different issue -- the one where the candidate is the strongest."

"'The agenda-setting effect is what we are talking about,' said Nicholas A. Valentino, a political psychologist at the University of Michigan at Ann Arbor. 'The ability of a candidate not to tell people how to feel about an issue, but which issue they should focus on -- that is the struggle of most modern campaign managers.'"

"'Campaigns have been much more successful at shifting people's attentions to different issues rather than shifting people's positions,' he added."

2. The brilliant Rick Klein, ahead of the curve in the Boston Globe, says, "Public confidence in President Bush's leadership appears to be rising since last week's campaign-style blitz touting his record in fighting terrorism, generating optimism among Republican lawmakers and operatives that they will be able to avoid losing control of Congress in the fall. . . ." LINK

"(R)ecent movement in polls suggests that the president continues to enjoy a bully pulpit from which he can influence the nation's mood and perceptions, despite setbacks that have harmed his popularity and credibility. Republicans say they are comforted by the fact that the forces set into motion in recent months can still be shaped by the president and congressional leaders."

President Bush begins his Manhattan moment by joining the First Lady for remarks at the White House Conference on Global Literacy at 12:15 pm ET. The rest of his day is filled with bilateral meetings with leaders from Malaysia, El Salvador, Honduras, and Tanzania. At 7:25 pm ET, President Bush attends a Republican National Committee fundraiser at a private residence which is expected to raise $1.4 million from the 80 attendees.

President Bush delivers the main event, his speech to the UNGA, tomorrow. Bill Clinton and his foundation have put together an impressive list of global political, business, and cultural leaders together to attempt to alleviate some of the world's most intractable problems by setting goals and reporting back progress on those goals. The schedule of events can be found here: LINK

First Lady Laura Bush will share the stage with Bill Clinton on Wednesday September 20 to help kick off this second annual Clinton Global Initiative.

Former Vice President Al Gore is in New York today to discuss the "climate crisis." At 9:30 am ET, he takes part in the release of the Carbon Disclosure Project survey on business strategies for climate change, and at 12:30 pm ET he gives a "major policy address" on solving the "climate crisis" from the NYU School of Law.

Former Sen. John Edwards (D-NC) participates in the New York Times' "The Middle Class at Risk" panel discussion in New York City at 6:30 pm ET at The New School.

A memorial service will be held in Austin at 1:00 pm ET for former Gov. Ann Richards (D-TX). Among those expected to speak are Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) , former Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk, former San Antonio Mayor Henry Cisneros, and syndicated columnist Liz Smith.

Several '08ers are out on the road today. Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) will give a speech at Pepperdine University in Malibu, CA. Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE) will campaign in Nashua, NH. Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) campaigns for Rep. Nancy Johnson (R-CT) in Danbury, CT. Gov. Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN) and Richard Holbrooke will campaign with Gov. John Lynch (D-NH) and Iowa gubernatorial candidate Chet Culver (D-IA) in New York, NY.

Karl Rove is in New York City raising campaign cash at the 21 Club for Tom Kean, Jr's Senate campaign.

Vice President Cheney will deliver remarks at a Maine Victory 2006 luncheon in Cape Elizabeth, Maine at 12:00 p.m. After that, he will fly to Pennsylvania for a reception for Rep. Don Sherwood (R-PA).

At 2:00 pm ET, the Senate Democratic Policy Committee will hold an "oversight hearing" on accountability for contracting abuses in Iraq.

Be sure to check out our look at the week ahead in politics below:
politics of detainees:
The compromise tea leaf reading dominates most of the Monday looks at the weekend chatter.

The New York Times takes Note of Stephen Hadley's hinting at a compromise and his crossing of paths with Sen. McCain on Sunday morning in George Stephanopoulos' shop. The paper also has the Senator announcing another endorsement, this one from Reagan's former secretary of state: "By the way, I forgot to mention this: George Schultz said I could say that he strongly favors our position." LINK

The New York Post has Sen. McCain's comments to "This Week" and highlights Newsweek's discovery of the seven interrogation techniques the White House has approved. LINK

The Boston Globe's editorial page is not in favor of either the Senate Armed Services Committee version or the President's bill at the moment. LINK

The Daily News on the White House's willingness to compromise. LINK

USA Today: LINK

Washington Times: LINK

Bush Administration agenda:
The New York Post's Earle previews President Bush's UN "freedom" speech. LINK

In his UNGA curtain-raiser, David Jackson of USA Today writes of President Bush's tense relations with the United Nations. LINK

In the speech, Bloomberg's Bill Varner reports that President Bush will touch broadly on the nuclear disputes involving Iran and North Korea. The President will also seek tougher measures to "halt massacres in Sudan and abuses in military-run Myanmar," according to Assistant Secretary of State Kristen Silverberg. LINK

Barbara Slavin of USA Today Notes, "President Bush and Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad deliver dueling speeches at the United Nations this week in what could become a dramatic showdown over Iran's nuclear program." LINK

In a weekend must-read, Ronald Brownstein of the Los Angeles Times argued on Sunday that President Bush has failed to recapture the 9/11 spirit of national unity. LINK

Also in must-read fashion, Time's Mike Allen examines President Bush's emphatic body language and has NBC's Matt Lauer saying to President Bush following a recent jab-filled interview: "Whoa! I thought you were coming after me there." LINK

On network morning television, First Lady Laura Bush was asked about the Republican Senators who have defied President Bush on detainee interrogations.

"I wouldn't say that they question him," said Mrs. Bush. "I would say that they are questioning some of the ideas."

"He knows these men very well -- all of them. Knows what their issues are," she added. On Madrid's decision to ban too-thin models from the catwalk, the First Lady said: "I don't see our government getting involved in skinny models."