The Note: Mistakes Were Made

— -- WASHINGTON, Oct. 2

In the next 48 hours, House Republicans will know if the Mark Foley matter will cost them control of the House for sure -- or, just maybe.

Foley political questions to ponder:

1. How worried are House Republicans that Foley will agree to do a tell-all interview, focusing not just on his behavior with pages, but on his dealings with the Leaders themselves?

2. How much unity remains between Hastert, Boehner, Blunt, and Reynolds on how to deal with this?

3. How can the leadership maintain Conference unity and communication with members scattered all over the country?

4. Which reporters and news organizations will the leadership staff key off of to calibrate whether they have "contained" the story or not?

5. How soon will every last dollar of Foley money in NRCC/RNC and campaign coffers end up with charity?

6. Which reporters have the best line into former Foley staffers (and the stories they can tell -- again, not about Foley, but about his relationships with his leadership colleagues)?

7. How quickly will White House, RNC, NRCC, and NRSC officials begin to spin that the reason they are going to lose the midterms is Foley's personal behavior (and not how they handled the Foley case, how they have run Congress, the Iraq war, or anything else)?

8. When will the first presidential words on this be uttered and will they help the House Republicans turn the corner?

9. What is the Republicans best hope for achieving the the "everybody does it" paradigm that is the best friend of a scandal-plagued party?

10. What does Rahm think?

Here's how one senior Democratic aide summed up the Foley situation this morning for The Note: "The R's desperately want this to be about whether or not they knew of the sexually explicit e-mails/I.M.'s.

"Most parents we talked to over the weekend (including my own conservative R mom) feel the issue is that the R's were given and ignored a huge warning with the first set of e-mails."

"Had there been an investigation at that time, the sexually explicit emails may have been uncovered. But, Members lost that opportunity when the R's chose to protect Foley instead of those kids."

The Old Media and the liberal bloggers share that attitude, and Republican strategists know it.

The goal for Republicans on L'Affaire Foley is to drive home the message that they have nothing to hide. That's why Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-IL) called for a Justice Department investigation into not only Foley's actions but also Congress's handling of the matter once it learned of the contacts. That's also why some Republicans in the toughest races -- Shays and Simmons in Connecticut, Wilson in New Mexico, and Fitzpatrick in Pennsylvania -- have taken steps to show some independence on Foley.

The Speaker will continue his effort to rid the GOP majority of Foley's taint by meeting with the Clerk of the House, Rep. John Shimkus (R-IL), and his staff today to review ways to protect pages while they are serving in the nation's Capitol. The Speaker will also discuss how Congress can protect pages after their program concludes. Hastert spokesman Ron Bonjean advises that it is "likely" that the Speaker will be making a series of media interviews regarding Foley.

This is how ABC News' George Stephanopoulos dissected the politics of the Foley affair on this morning's "Good Morning America": "Right now it's a category 3 hurricane and it's picking up steam. Republicans all across the country are getting questions about it. But here's the key question: Did any Republican leaders know about those x-rated emails that" ABC's Brian Ross "is talking about? If they did, it's game over. The leadership will have to resign. It will cost Republicans control of Congress. As one top GOP aide told me this morning, 'the place will burn down'."

President Bush will get his first opportunity to speak out on the Foley situation at the bottom of his 9:25 am ET meeting with the special envoy for the Sudan. His second bite of the apple will come at the bottom of his 10:00 am ET meeting with the prime minister of Turkey.

Marine One departs the White House at 2:35 pm ET. The President is scheduled to make 8:35 pm ET remarks at a fundraiser for Republican Dean Heller in Reno, NV. He then heads to Stockton, CA where he will spend the night.

Vice President Cheney delivers remarks at a 2:30 pm ET luncheon for Barbara Cubin in Casper, WY. The Vice President attends a reception for Dennis Rehberg, and Montana Victory 2006, in Billings, MT at 7:30 pm ET.

House Majority Leader John Boehner (R-OH) raises money for Rep. Jim Gerlach (R-PA) in West Chester, PA at 4:00 pm ET, according to a Democratic campaign source. Rep. Gerlach is in a tough race for re-election against Democrat Lois Murphy who is calling on Gerlach to return the $1,000 that he allegedly received from Foley.

Boehner told the Washington Post on Friday that he "had learned in late spring of inappropriate e-mails Foley sent to the page, a boy from Louisiana, and that he promptly told Hastert, who appeared to know already of the concerns. Hours later, Boehner contacted The Post to say he could not be sure he had spoken with Hastert."LINK

The 37-member executive board of the Florida Republican Party will hold a 1:00 pm ET closed meeting on Monday, Oct. 2 at the Hyatt Regency Orlando International Airport Hotel to choose a replacement nominee for Florida's 16th congressional district.

House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) is in Washington, DC today, raising coin for the DCCC. As of this writing, Pelosi has no plans to speak out on camera about Foley today. On Tuesday, she will be in Florida for a previously scheduled prescription drug event with Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-FL).

NRCC Chairman Tom Reynolds (R-NY) is in his district today, according to the NRCC. The self-described nuts-and-bolts county chairman is facing a competitive race with Democrat Jack Davis.

DNC Chairman Howard Dean is in Burlington, VT and DCCC Chairman Rahm Emanuel (D-IL) is in Chicago. Both are due back in DC on Tuesday.

The House is in recess and is not expected to reconvene until after the election on Nov. 9.

Foley's whereabouts:
The AP is reporting that Foley "announced Monday through his attorney that he had been battling alcoholism and had checked into an unidentified rehabilitation facility for treatment over the weekend. "I strongly believe that I am an alcoholic and have accepted the need for immediate treatment for alcoholism and other behavioral problems," Foley said in a statement released in Florida by his attorney, David Roth."

Here is the text of the letter faxed to ABC affiliate WPBF (and other news organizations):

October 1, 2006

Painfully, the events that led to my resignation have crystalized recognition of my longstanding significant alcohol and emotional difficulties.

I strongly believe that I am an alcoholic and have accepted the need for immediate treatment for alcoholism and related behavioral problems.

On Saturday, with the loving support of my family and friends, I made arrangements to enter a renowned in-patient facility to address my disease and related issues.

I deeply regret and accept full responsibility for the harm I have caused.

Over the weekend, I communicated extensively with one of the most respected mental health experts in Palm Beach County, Florida, who has been instrumental in counseling and assisting me.

Attorney David Roth, my good friend of four decades has been requested by me to fully and completely cooperate regarding any inquiries that may arise during my treatment.

Words cannot express my gratitude for the prayers and words of encouragement that have been conveyed to me.

Sincerely,

(Signature)

Mark Foley

The Washington Post's preliminary reference to the letter: LINK

FBI to examine Foley's e-mails:
The FBI announced on Sunday that it is looking into whether Foley broke federal law by sending inappropriate e-mails and instant messages to underage boys serving as congressional pages. LINK

As Brian Ross reported on Sunday, agents in the FBI's Cyber division have already begun to examine the texts of some of the messages, according to a FBI spokesperson.

Officials say the FBI and Department of Justice lawyers are trying to determine how many such e-mails were sent, how many different computers were used, and whether any of the teenage victims will cooperate in the investigation. It is possible Foley could be prosecuted under laws he helped to enact, as the co chairman of the House Caucus on Missing and Exploited Children.

Two sets of sexually explicit instant messages obtained by ABC News were sent to pages in 2002.

Ross reported on Sunday's edition of "World News" that in one instant message with an underage boy, Rep. Foley asked him for a measurement of his sexual organ.

One ex-page says pages were warned about Foley in 2001, reports ABC's Brian Ross. LINK

What did the GOP leadership know and when did it know it:
Per the Buffalo News, "While most of the sniping over the Foley issue came across party lines, the weekend's events also revealed an apparent rift between Hastert" and Reynolds.LINK

"The statement that Reynolds issued Saturday contradicted an earlier Hastert account indicating that the speaker had only heard about the Foley matter last week."

"And sources close to Reynolds Sunday said that a statement issued by the speaker a day earlier included a glaring inaccuracy. While the Hastert statement said Reynolds told the speaker that the clerk of the House and the head of the House Page Board had investigated Foley's e-mails to the Louisiana boy, Reynolds' aides contended that never happened."

"Asked why Reynolds had chosen to publicly disagree with Hastert, a source close to Reynolds said: 'Tom Reynolds did all the right things, and we needed to say that.'"

In today's Washington Post, Charles Babington and Jonathan Weisman have "one House GOP leadership aide, speaking on the condition of anonymity for fear of losing his job," conceding that Republicans "had erred in not notifying the three-member, bipartisan panel that oversees the page system." LINK

"Instead, they left it to the panel chairman, Rep. John M. Shimkus (R-Ill.), to confront Foley.