The Note: Laying Traps For Troubadors

— -- WASHINGTON, Sept. 25

This week's known unknowns, leading up to the midterm elections:

1. Will Democrats take what Jay Carson and Howard Wolfson call the "Chappaqua Hint" and realize that the Clintons' aggressive pushback against formidable targets such as ABC Entertainment, Fox News, Jerry Falwell, and John Spencer is meant in part to set an example for how they want the party to behave between now and Election Day?

(Anticipating skulls thinker than skins, Carson keeps saying about the Chris Wallace interview, "President Clinton fought back hard, just like any Democrat should when they are attacked with a baseless attack.")

2. Which is more likely -- that Republicans on the Hill work out their intraparty differences on immigration, budget, and security issues before adjournment, or that, despite all the Gang of 500 hand-wringing, no real voters Notice or care?

3. Will Obama communications czar Robert Gibbs demand a bonus system whereby he gets paid extra from the book royalty kitty every time he hustles to get his boss some favorable coverage?

4. Will RNC/NRCC/NRSC/value of AF1-Rose Garden/allied group spending be greater than/less than/equal to DNC/DCCC/DSCC/House of Labor/allied group spending?

5. Which candidates are being secretly advised by Bob Shrum?

6. Which struggling candidates will be smart enough to quickly buy and read "Applebee's America," before it's too late? LINK

7. Will George Allen do some soul searching, bridge building, house cleaning, and/or head clearing, before it's too late?

8. Will candidates and campaign managers who Rahm makes cry have a better or worse won/loss records than those who shed no tears?

9. Will the Medicare prescription drug benefit (and the ill-timed doughnut hole press coverage) be a net plus or net minus for the Republicans?

10. Which struggling candidates will be smart enough to quickly buy and read "The Way to Win," before it's too late? LINK

11. What will the White House do below the radar of the national media to leverage presidential trips (such as this week's jaunts to Connecticut, Alabama, Tennessee, and Ohio (twice!!)) in a way that reaches the base? (Get on that, Mike Allen.)

With the President on the road, Democrats are planning to use a 1:30 pm ET hearing of the Senate Democratic Policy Committee to keep attention focused on a recently disclosed National Intelligence Estimate which shows, according to news reports, that the war in Iraq has made the terrorism problem worse.

As previewed by the AP's David Espo, retired military officers are expected to "bluntly accuse Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld of bungling the war in Iraq, saying U.S. troops were sent to fight without the best equipment and that critical facts were hidden from the public." LINK

"I believe that Secretary Rumsfeld and others in the administration did not tell the American people the truth for fear of losing support for the war in Iraq," retired Maj. Gen. John R. S. Batiste is expected to say.

A second witness, retired Maj. Gen. Paul Eaton, is expected to assess Rumsfeld as "incompetent strategically, operationally and tactically …."

Sen. Arlen Specter (R-PA), the chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, addresses the National Press Club on legal issues relating to the detainees in Guantanamo Bay, NSA wiretapping, and immigration legislation at 1:00 p.m. ET in Washington, DC.

The Washington Post's Jonathan Weisman reports that House Speaker Dennis Hastert (IL) is at odds with Senate Armed Forces Committee Chairman John Warner (R-VA) over the annual defense authorization bill. Hastert wants to include controversial anti-illegal immigration legislation, among other provisions, while Warner has refused to allow extraneous measures that would not garner unanimous support. LINK

President Bush raises money for the Connecticut Republican Victory fund at a private residence in Riverside, CT at 1:45 pm ET. He then raises coin for a Mike DeWine for U.S. Senate and Ohio Victory 2006 reception at a private residence in Cincinnati, OH. The President is scheduled to make a 4:45 pm ET statement on the economy at Meyer Tool in Cincinnati, OH.

Vice President Cheney speaks at a luncheon for Wisconsin Victory 2006 at the Pfiser Hotel Grand Ballroom in Milwaukee, WI. The Vice President then flies to Michigan for a rally with the Michigan National Guard and a reception for senatorial candidate Michael Bouchard at 5:00 pm ET in East Grand Rapids, MI.

First Lady Laura Bush and Undersecretary of State for Public Diplomacy Karen Hughes announces the start of the President's Global Cultural Initiative in a 10:30 am ET event in the East Room of the White House.

Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) delivers the keynote address at the Southern Tier Venture Capital Symposium in Binghamton, NY at 12:15 pm ET. Clinton rallies with Maryland Democrats including gubernatorial hopeful Mayor Martin O'Malley and Senate hopeful Rep. Ben Cardin in Adelphia, MD at 7:00 pm ET.

Sen. George Allen (R-VA) joins faith leaders and their spouses at a 10:00 am ET press conference and rally at Brown's Island in Richmond, VA (5th Street and Tredegar Street) as they pledge their support for the Virginia Marriage Amendment.

Claire McCaskill, the Democrat running for the Senate against Sen. Jim Talent (R-MO), will be in New York City today for a Democratic Leadership for the 21st Century fundraiser.

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) speaks with Kentucky Republicans in a private reception in Covington, KY.

In the third of three policy speeches sponsored by MoveOn.org, Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI) speaks about democracy, voting rights, and the separation of powers in Philadelphia, PA

Other Democratic '08ers with out-of-state events today are: Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN), who continues to campaign in New Hampshire for state legislative candidates; former Gov. Mark Warner (D-VA), who attends a Democratic Party breakfast in Greenville, SC; and Gov. Tom Vilsack (D-IA), who travels to Florida.

Time magazine's John Huey holds reception for the new managing editor, Rick Stengel, in Washington, DC.

The Senate meets at 2:00 pm ET for morning business and to resume consideration of the Secure Fence Act of 2006. The House meets at 12:30 pm ET for morning-hour debate and 2:00 pm ET for legislative business.

The House Rules Committee meets at 5:00 pm ET to formulate rules on the Child Interstate Abortion Notification Act and the Public Expressions of Religion Act of 2006 in H-313.

The Woodrow Wilson International Center holds a 2:00 pm ET discussion, "Afghanistan Five Years After 9/11," with Afghan President Hamid Karzai. Georgetown University presents Afghanistan's president with an honorary doctor of laws degree at 5:30 pm ET in Gaston Hall.

Politics of Iraq:
On "Good Morning America," ABC News' Jessica Yellin reported, "It is just terrible timing for the White House. Just as there are signs that the President's poll numbers are starting to rise, leaked portions of the classified report are turning the attention back to the key issue that has dragged down the President's Administration and his party, the war in Iraq."

The New York Times covers the political reaction, both from Democrats and the White House, to the Sunday reports on the NIE. LINK

Bloomberg News wraps the Sunday talk show reaction to the NIE including Sens. McCain and Frist utilizing the leaked classified document to demonstrate the President's point that Iraq is the central front in the war on terror. LINK

Sunday's New York Times lead with Mark Mazzetti's reporting on the National Intelligence Estimate showing America's involvement in Iraq has exacerbated the terrorism threat America faces. LINK

"The report 'says that the Iraq war has made the overall terrorism problem worse,' said one American intelligence official," reported Mazzetti.

Sunday's Washington Post on the same:LINK

Director of National Intelligence John Negroponte announced that the National Intelligence Estimate found that "only a fraction of judgments" found the war in Iraq increased "the threat of terrorism." LINK

The Los Angeles Times: A top Army's officer says the U.S. can not continue it's current level of activity in Iraq and other global commitments without additional funding. General Peter J. Schoomaker, the Army's chief of staff has refused to submit a required 2008 budget plan after protesting with defense secretary Donald Rumsfeld. LINK

"Schoomaker failed to submit the budget plan by an Aug. 15 deadline. The protest followed a series of cuts in the service's funding requests by both the White House and Congress over the last four months.

According to a senior Army official involved in budget talks, Schoomaker is now seeking $138.8 billion in 2008, nearly $25 billion above budget limits originally set by Rumsfeld. The Army's budget this year is $98.2 billion, making Schoomaker's request a 41% increase over current levels"

The Way to Win:
Sources familiar with the bookbag of Sen. John MCCain (R-U.S.A.) say he has obtained an advanced copy of The Way to Win: Taking the White House in 2008 -- the Random House book out next Tuesday, October 3, that features interviews with Bill Clinton, Karl Rove, and Dick Cheney. LINK

The book, by Mark Halperin of ABC News and John F. Harris of the Washington Post, was discussed Sunday on CBS News' "Face the Nation," with the show's anchor leading the program with the following insightful exchange:

BOB SCHIEFFER: And good morning again. With us in the studio this morning, Senator John McCain. Welcome, Senator McCain.

JOHN MCCAIN: Thank you.

SCHIEFFER: Joining in the questioning, John Harris, who is the national political editor of The Washington Post and the co-author of a new book called, "The Way to Win: Taking the White House in 2008." And it's a very good book. I recommend it. Well, let me start here with Senator McCain.

MCCAIN: I'll have to read it.

(LAUGHTER)

SCHIEFFER: It might be of interest to you, Senator McCain.

(LAUGHTER)

Today's The Way to Win quiz contest is a little bit different than last week's.

To win, you still have to answer today's question correctly, and then be randomly chosen from the pool of those who get the question right.

The difference: the winner gets both an autographed copy of The Way to Win and two tickets to tomorrow night's Washington, DC party for the book.