The Note: Wherever the Evidence Leads, Part XV

— -- WASHINGTON, Oct. 6

Most important Foley development of the news cycle: the Wall Street Journal's David Rogers (the 436th member of the House) slyly signaling to the world that he believes that former House clerk Jeff Trandahl is the key to the whole case. LINK

Most important non-Foley development of the news cycle: Senator John Warner (R-VA) coming out for a dramatically new direction in Iraq, as a stalking horse for many senior military leaders and Jim Baker's Iraq Study Group (which some say has secretly already made up its mind about recommending a dramatically new direction in Iraq -- after the election).

(Note: as Haley Barbour would say, Jim Baker was born at night, but it wasn't last night.) Most important non-Foley development of the news cycle which might or might not be true: Susan Page of USA Today reports in the lede of the Nation's Newspaper on the continuing tight Senate races around the country that has Democrats gaining momentum, and positioning them for majority control. LINK

Most unimportant partisan fight of the news cycle: the two parties fighting over the meaning of Friday's employment figures.

President Bush, part of the Rashomon kabuki, participates in a roundtable discussion and then speaks about job growth and the economy at the FedEx Express building in Washington, DC at 10:20 am ET. The president then delivers remarks at the Hispanic Heritage Month celebration at 2:55 pm ET at the White House.

As for that Department of Labor report on jobs out this morning, "Employers add 51,000 jobs during September. This is well below the consensus estimate of 125,000, but there were upward revisions in previous months that added some 60,000 jobs," reports ABC News' Dan Arnall.

More Arnall: "The nation's unemployment rate ticked down a tenth of a percent to 4.6%. That's a move, but a statistically insignificant one."

At this writing, none of the Republican House leaders are known to have public schedules today or plans to make news.

Vice President Cheney speaks at a luncheon for congressional candidate Vern Buchanan (R-FL) at 1:30 pm ET in Sarasota, FL. He then travels to Williamsburg, Virginia to attend a dinner and reception honoring the christening of Aircraft Carrier George H.W. Bush. That event takes place at 6:10 pm ET

RNC Chairman Ken Mehlman campaigns with Rep. Dave Reichert (WA-8) at 8:00 pm ET in Bellevue, WA.

Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) attends a rally for gubernatorial candidate Jim Davis (D-FL) at 12:30 pm ET at Florida Memorial University in Miami Gardens.

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) is in South Carolina taking part in a rally called "Support Our Troops and Salute our Veteran," at 5:30 pm ET at Veterans Memorial Duncan Park in Spartanburg, SC.

Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA) is the featured guest at a fundraiser for Georgia GOP lieutenant governor nominee Casey Cagle (R-GA) at a closed press event at 11:45 am ET in Atlanta, Georgia.

Gov. George Pataki (R-NY) presents a flag that flew over Ground Zero to first responder at 3:00 pm ET at the Hilton Head Fire Department in Hilton Head, SC. Pataki then attends two private fundraisers, one for South Carolina comptroller general Richard Eckstrom, and then at 4:00 pm ET Pataki and then at 6:00 pm ET for Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC).

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-GA) lectures at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library and Museum at 3:30 pm ET in Simi Valley, CA.

Former President Bill Clinton meets with representatives from the American Heart Association and food industry leaders to announce their new project of the Alliance for a Healthier Generation at 1:00 pm ET at A. Phillip Randolph Campus High School in New York, NY.

Several gubernatorial candidates debate today. Wisconsin gubernatorial candidates, Republican Mark Green tees off with Gov. Jim Doyle (D-WI) participating in the Wisconsin Broadcasters Association's debate in Milwaukee, WI at 8:00 PM ET,. In Texas, gubernatorial candidates, Republican Rick Perry, Democrat Chris Bell, independent Carole Strayhorn and independent Kinky Friedman debate in a state-wide broadcast in Houston, TX at 8:00 PM ET.

The CalTech/MIT Voting Technology Project continues the Voter Identification Registration Conference today in Cambridge, MA.

Don't miss a Sunday exclusive on "This Week with George Stephanopoulos," NRCC chief Tom Reynolds (R-NY) and DCCC chief Rahm Emanuel (D-IL) argue the '06 congressional election, the Foley impact, and more. LINK

Foley: Hastert survives?:
In a story on House Republicans moving to back Hastert, the Washington Post's Jim VandeHei and Michael Abramowitz have a top adviser to Hastert saying that Boehner's comments earlier this week "still stings" and the remark "was pretty close" to an insurrection. LINK

"Kevin Madden, a spokesman for Boehner, said his boss was 'in no way trying to blame Hastert. It was merely a description' of responsibility for the page program, which the speaker's office technically oversees."

On ABC's "Good Morning America," Jake Tapper referenced, "behind the scenes. . . tension."

Tapper and Avery Miller of ABC News report that conservative activist Paul Weyrich told ABC News that in a private phone conversation Hastert "assured me that Congressman Boehner had never, ever talked to him about this." "He didn't call him a 'liar,' " Weyrich said, "but he said, 'Paul, I assure you that phone call or visit from the majority leader never took place." LINK

Over to you, Mr. Boehner, who is down today (schedule-wise, not in terms of disposition.)

The Hill reports to the disarray and finger pointing going on within the Republican Party. LINK

The Washington Times' Charles Hurt Notes that Hastert "began his remarks on a note (sic) of contrition. . . But by the end of his remarks, he again denied any wrongdoing." LINK

The Washington Post's Charles Babington reports that Scott Palmer, the speaker's top aide, "spent much of Wednesday night rummaging through old e-mails and files to determine whether he ever corresponded with Fordham, a source close to Hastert said. Palmer, who was described as very emotional, told Hastert that Fordham's assertions are false, the source said." LINK

"Hastert's office has been on edge. Deputy Chief of Staff Mike Stokke, who handles politics for the speaker, has offered to resign, two sources close to Hastert said, and several aides have expressed frustration that Ted Van Der Meid, the top counsel in the office, did not do a better job monitoring the Foley situation. Hastert did not accept Stokke's resignation offer, the source said."

Bloomberg's Jay Newton-Small and Michael Forsythe write that Hastert "will likely survive for now in part because there is no appetite among Republican lawmakers to call the full House back into session to elect a new speaker, as required by the Constitution, and because there's no obvious successor untainted by the Foley affair among the Republican House leadership." LINK

Hastert "may well have slowed down the waves of criticism," writes Lynn Sweet of the Chicago Sun-Times. LINK

The New York Times' Jeff "Front-page Boy" Zeleny (who also has the Stokke resignation offer) takes a closer look at Speaker Hastert as "political survivor." LINK

Zeleny Notes Hastert's fluid political schedule. "Mr. Hastert, who had a busy October of campaign travel penciled into his calendar, is suddenly seen as a liability for the first time since being elected speaker. Republican candidates across the nation were canceling, postponing or reconsidering appearances with him, fund-raisers said, wary of campaigning with Mr. Hastert, even though pollsters say he carries no more than a 40 percent name recognition," writes Zeleny.

USA Today also takes a look at Hastert's career trajectory: LINK

Andrew Taylor of the AP reports that Speaker Hastert "seems to be weathering the political storm" caused by the Foley fallout. LINK

The New York Times has the partisan breakdown over the anticipated (but withheld) Louis Freeh announcement and gives prominent play to Rep. Joe Barton's (R-TX) circulated letter of support for Hastert that likens the current position of the Speaker to defenders of the Alamo. LINK

The Chicago Tribune reports that a Hastert advisor said that senior Republican officials urged Hastert before yesterday's news conference not to repeat the comments he made suggesting ABC News, liberal billionaire George Soros, and Bill Clinton had created the scandal. The Tribune reports the advisor said that the comments were considered a serious misstep in national Republican circles. LINK

The Washington Post's Al Kamen provides a little FYI by writing that "there is a provision that if the speaker doesn't show up for three days, the chair can be deemed vacant and a motion would be in order for the election of a new speaker.) Were the House around, presumably someone who voted for Hastert last time could call for a new vote." LINK

Unsurprisingly, the Los Angeles Times ed board calls for Hastert's head, but writes his failures go beyond the Foley scandal. LINK

Matt Stearns, Washington correspondent for the Kansas City Star, reports that the GOP's House Majority Whip Rep. Roy Blunt (R-MO) is "unscathed by the still unfolding scandal" and that Blunt is now seen by many to be angling to be the next Speaker, or minority leader, should the Republicans lose the house. LINK

The St. Louis Post-Dispatch's Deirdre Shesgreen writes an interesting story on the complex relationship between Rep. John Shimkus (R-IL) and House Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-IL), two former high school teachers who now serve in Congress. LINK

Shesgreen writes that "a House GOP leadership aide, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said that during a conference call with House Republicans earlier this week, Shimkus did not come under fire when he recounted what he knew about Foley's contact with pages and why he handled it the way he did. 'He did not get any pushback from the members. There's some sympathy for his situation,' the aide said."