The Note: Everything Is Relational

— -- WASHINGTON, Oct. 9

One serious issue that could impact the midterms decisively replaces another one in blotting out the news cycle. Analysis of which side that benefits is at once impossible and too simple.

So: Knowing who will have control of the House and the Senate after the midterm elections is easy.

All it requires is a basic understanding of some important relationships:

James A Baker 3d's relationship with 43.

David Roger's relationship with Jeff Trandahl.

Republican media consultants' relationship with restraint.

Howard Berman's relationship with partisanship.

Kim Il Jong's relationship with reality.

Rahm Emanuel's relationships with Howard Dean, Michael Whouley, and anger management.

Tom Reynolds' relationship with compartmentalization.

Big Labor's relationship with modernity.

Nancy Pelosi's relationship with opposition research.

Nancy Pelosi's relationship with semiotics.

Voters' relationships with the hunger for a higher minimum wage and more access to gaming.

In the wake of North Korea announcing that it has tested a nuclear weapon, the United Nations Security Council meets at 9:30 am ET and President Bush speaks at 9:45 am ET.

The New York Times' David Sanger reports that North Korea's Sunday night announcement makes it the eight country in history, "and arguably the most unstable and most dangerous, to proclaim that it has joined the club of nuclear weapons states." LINK

There will be no White House briefing today. But there will be a gaggle at some point.

From what we know, House Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-IL), Rep. Tom Reynolds (R-NY) and the rest of the key players in the Foley story do not have public events today.

Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) joins the New York State Attorney General candidate, Andrew Cuomo (D-NY) at a joint press appearance with Italian American leaders at the Columbus Day Parade at 11:30 am ET in New York, NY.

Sen. George Allen (R-VA) debates the Democratic challenger Jim Webb at 8:00 pm ET in Richmond, VA.

Karl Rove is in Oklahoma helping Rep. Ernest Istook (R-OK) raise money for his run for Oklahoma governor. The fundraiser begins at 6:30 pm ET.

Former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani attends a fundraiser for the Republican candidate for Oregon Governor Ron Saxon at the Portland Art Museum at 4:30 pm ET in Portland, OR.

ABC News and the Washington Post have a poll on Foley, Iraq, and the approaching midterms coming out later today. Be sure to check ABC's "Political Radar" on the politics page of ABCNews.com at 5:00 pm ET. Then tune into "World News with Charles Gibson" at 6:30 pm ET for analysis. LINK

Foley: Kolbe knew of Foley emails in 2000:
In a must-read, the Washington Post's Jonathan Weisman reports that Rep. Jim Kolbe (R-AZ) knew of Foley's inappropriate Internet exchanges as far back as 2000 and personally confronted Foley about his communications. Last week, when the Foley matter erupted, a Kolbe staff member suggested to the former page that he take the matter to the clerk of the House. LINK

The Post adds, that a source with direct knowledge of Kolbe's involvement said the messages shared with Kolbe were sexually explicit, and he read the contents to the Washington Post under condition that they are not reprinted. But Korenna Cline, Kolbe's press secretary, denied the source's characterization, saying only that the messages had made the former page feel uncomfortable. Nevertheless, she said, "corrective action" was taken. Cline said she still has not yet determined whether that action went beyond Kolbe's confrontation with Foley.

Foley: what did Hastert's office know and when did they know it?:
On Saturday, the Washington Post's Jonathan Weisman reported that Hastert chief of staff Scott Palmer "confronted Foley about his inappropriate social contact with male pages well before the Speaker said aides in his office took any action, a current congressional staff member with personal knowledge of Foley and his behavior with pages said yesterday."LINK

ABC's John Yang matched the Washington Post report for ABCNews.com.LINK

In the Wall Street Journal's Weekend Edition, David Rogers reported that although Fordham went to Palmer instead, "it would have been logical for Mr. Palmer to tell Mr. Van Der Meid of any meeting he had about the pages."

Joe Klein of Time discusses President Bush's value for "loyalty over competence or accountability" for his support of Hastert "despite the fact that Hastert's inability to control the Foley fiasco could well cost the Republicans control of Congress. LINK

Time's Karen Tumulty proclaims "the end of a revolution" for the Republican Party. When Republican Speaker of the House Hastert was asked to resign, he stated, "If I fold up my tent and leave, then where does that leave us?" For the GOP, "hold on to power has become not just the means but also the end." LINK

Foley: political fallout:
In addition to the Reynolds race (NY-26) and Foley's old seat (FL-16), the newly competitive contests are:

CA-04: John Doolittle (R) vs. Charles Brown (D)

CA-11: Richard Pombo (R) vs. Jerry McNerney (D)

CO-04: Marilyn Musgrave (R) vs. Angie Paccione (D)

KY-02: Ron Lewis (R) vs. Mike Weaver (D)

NV-02: Dean Heller (R) vs. Jill Derby (D)

With a Virginia Beach, VA dateline, David Kirkpatrick of the New York Times takes the post-Foley political temperature of some evangelical Christians and finds that the page sex scandal may not cause Christians to turn away from the Republican Party. LINK

The New York Times' Adam Nagourney delivered a Saturday must-read on the expanded map of Republican House seats now in serious contention due to the Foley story. LINK

Janet Hook in Sunday's Los Angeles Times breaks down the effects of the Mark Foley affair with a state-by-state outlook. LINK

"Bush has complained. . . that the scandal torpedoes furious GOP efforts to reenergize a dispirited political base -- especially Christian conservatives," reported the New York Daily News' DeFrank on Sunday. LINK

"'There's steam coming out of his ears over the Foley thing,' someone who talks to the President regularly said. 'The base is starting to get turned off again.'"

In Sunday's Washington Post, Grunwald and Cillizza had a frustrated GOP strategist saying "his party's mishandling of Foley 'speaks to our inability to govern and do the right thing. It says everything about who we are as a party.'" LINK

More on the spread of the Foley fallout and it's meaning for the GOP from today's Chicago Tribune. LINK

Foley: ethics committee:
The New York Times' Jeff Zeleny pieces together the Foley timeline and lays out the many unresolved questions. Zeleny reports that the ethics committee investigation will likely focus on the Shimkus/Trandahl/Nicolson/Foley meeting in the first week of November 2005 where Foley was confronted about the "over-friendly" email to a former page from Louisiana. LINK

Zeleny also Notes that each member of the House will receive a letter from the ethics committee asking them to contact current and former pages to find out if they had any inappropriate contact with Foley or any other member.

The Wall Street Journal's David Rogers reports that the House Ethics Committee has already begun conducting interviews, but he doesn't say who was interviewed or when.LINK

Former aide Kirk Fordham is expected to give his testimony to the House Ethics Committee this week reports USA Today. LINK

Foley: legal investigation:
The Los Angeles Times reports that authorities are "now deciding whether to subpoena records from the office and home computers that Foley used, according to people who are familiar with the case and who requested anonymity because of the ongoing inquiry."LINK

Foley: Reynolds on the ropes:
NRCC Chairman Tom Reynolds (R-NY) was a no show on "This Week with George Stephanopoulos" where he was scheduled to debate DCCC Chairman Rahm Emanuel (D-IL).

ABC's Teddy Davis and Lindsey Ellerson report that Reynolds launched a new television ad in which he says of Foley: "Nobody's angrier and more disappointed than me that I didn't catch his lies. I trusted that others had investigated. Looking back, more should have been done, and for that I am sorry." LINK

Reynolds went on the air defending himself in two Foley-related ads after the American Federation of State County and Municipal Employees (AFSCME) began broadcasting a hard-hitting radio ad questioning whether Reynolds had done all he could after hearing a complaint about Foley from Rep. Rodney Alexander (R-LA) in the spring of 2006.

AFSCME wasn't alone. The Democratic-leaning 527 "Majority Action," headed up by one-time candidate for DNC chairman Donnie Fowler, also went up with a radio ad on Friday attacking Reynolds for his involvement in the Foley affair.

Foley: polls:
"53 percent of Americans want the Democrats to win control of Congress next month, including 10 percent of Republicans, compared to just 35 percent who want the GOP to retain power," reports Newsweek on its post-Foley poll. LINK

"If the election were held today, 51 percent of likely voters would vote for the Democrat in their district versus 39 percent who would vote for the Republican. And while the race is closer among male voters (46 percent for the Democrats vs. 42 percent for the Republicans), the Democrats lead among women voters 56 to 34 percent."

Foley: the details:
Walter F. Roche Jr. exclusively reported in Sunday's Los Angeles Times that a former House page claims he had sex with ex-Rep. Foley. LINK

In its cover story, Newsweek reports, "On one night in 2002 or 2003, an allegedly inebriated Foley showed up at the pages' dorm after a 10 p.m. curfew and tried to gain entry, according to an account provided by two congressional sources, who declined to be identified due to the sensitivity of the matter. Foley was turned away by a guard. It is not known if the pages were ever aware that Foley lurked outside their door, but word of the incident reached the House Clerk, who notified Foley's chief of staff, Kirk Fordham." LINK

Foley: the gay Republican angle:

On Sunday, Mark Leibovich of the New York Times wrote about the network of gay Republican staffers featured prominently in the Foley story. LINK