The Note: Self-evident Truthiness

— -- WASHINGTON, Oct. 13

Things the Gang of 500 knows with absolute certainty, most of which are true, and/but all of which can be used at cocktail parties and on soccer game sidelines all weekend:

1. The Washington Post's Dan Balz and buff Diamond Jim VandeHei are spot on when they write today about the fight for House control, "Some top Republicans privately talk about losing a minimum of 12 seats, leaving them with a barely workable majority, and as many as 25 or 30 seats. Democratic strategists see the range of potential pickups in almost identical terms." LINK

2. The winners, in order, of Mark Warner's decision not to run for president in 2008 are Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, and Evan Bayh.

3. The liberal Old Media's breathless reaction to David Kuo's book notwithstanding, the Bush Administration has close ties to religious conservatives -- and the White House Office of Political Affairs is a taxpayer-funded operation that -- under presidents of both parties -- works on political affairs.

4. Very little is going to leak from the ethics committee's page investigation.

5. If Todd Harris has been hired to work to save the Mark Foley seat for the Republicans, Tom Reynolds hasn't given up on it yet.

6. Bill Clinton will raise the roof in Iowa this weekend, with one of the five best political speeches of the year.

7. Harry Reid doesn't give a rip about the Washington Post's ed board's view of his land deal; oddly, Karl Rove does. LINK

8. Mitt Romney and John Edwards have had very good 2006s.

9. Despite rampant e-mail traffic to the contrary, Mark Warner did not drop out of the race because he had just finished reading The Way to Win. LINK

10. "Staying the course" is not an option; neither is "adapt and change."

Notwithstanding #4 above, the stakeout in the basement of the Capitol will be chock full of reporters today. Rep. John Shimkus (R-IL) -- the top Republican on the House Page Board -- is expected to testify before the House ethics committee today. According to Roll Call, "Shimkus will be accompanied before the panel by his attorney, Barry Pollack with the firm Kelley Drye & Warren in Washington, D.C."

Lynn Sweet of the Chicago Sun-Times has more. LINK

Rep. Bob Ney (R-OH) is expected to plead guilty to corruption charges this morning before U.S. District Judge Ellen Segal Huvelle at 10:00 am ET in Washington, DC. (In Portland, OR yesterday, Nancy Pelosi -- rhetorically -- joined Ohio GOP Chair Bob Bennett and Republican House candidate Joy Padgett in calling for Ney to resign.)

Also in Washington today, President Bush signs the Safe Port Act at 10:00 am ET, attends a RNC luncheon at 12:05 pm ET and then meets with his Management Council on the President's Management Agenda at 1:30 pm ET. The President's RNC fundraiser is expected to raise $900,000 from the anticipated 85 attendees.

Former governor/former presidential prospect Mark Warner appears with House candidate Bruce Braley (D-IA) at a campaign event at the University of Northern Iowa Regional Business Center at 12:00 pm ET in Waterloo, IA.

Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) keynotes the annual New Hampshire Democratic Party "Jefferson-Jackson" dinner in Manchester, NH at 6:30 pm ET.

Bill Clinton expresses his support of Proposition 87, the Clean Alternative Energy Act, at 11:15 am ET in Los Angeles, CA.

RNC Chairman Ken Mehlman attends rallies and fundraisers in one Tennessee today.

Make sure to tune into "This Week with George Stephanopoulos" on Sunday when George goes on the Tennessee campaign trail with Bob Corker and Harold Ford, Jr. and brings you the latest from one of the hottest Senate races in the country. Can't wait until Sunday? You don't have to. Check out the "This Week All Week" web cast here: LINK

See below for more Friday schedule items and a look at the weekend ahead in politics.

2006: landscape:
In a must-read look at how the GOP is redirecting funds from faltering races, the Washington Post's Dan Balz and Jim VandeHei report that Democrats have "ordered up polls" in a dozen or more second-tier districts and "now face a critical choice: whether to place bets on a few of these districts in the hope of expanding the field of competitive seats, or concentrate advertising dollars as planned on the roughly 20 to 25 districts where the odds appear most favorable." LINK

Balz and VandeHei go on to report that Republican and Democratic operatives seem to agree that the GOP is on course to lose a minimum of 12 seats and a maximum of 25 to 30.

And don't miss this: "Among those where spending is heaviest are three races in Indiana, where Republican incumbents are running scared. More than $4 million had been spent there as of the beginning of the week. Other races where money has flowed freely include two districts in Connecticut -- another state where Republicans are on the defensive -- and districts in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Kentucky, New Mexico, New York and Virginia."

"'We're seeing relatively safe House districts with candidates up on the air five weeks out,' said Evan Tracey, chief operating officer of TNSMI/CMAG. 'They would have been on two to three weeks out at the earliest in past elections. . . . No one is safe.'"

It truly is your must-read of the day, so stop whatever else you are doing and go read the whole thing. . . TWICE!

Mark Warner bows out: who benefits?:
To the delight of a set of Bayh donors who have grown tired with his glowing George Magazine profile from the 1990s, the Washington Post's Chris Cillizza writes that the "most obvious Democrat to benefit from Warner's surprise announcement, in the view of many party strategists, is Sen. Evan Bayh (Ind.)." LINK

Cillizza adds that if Warner's decision shifts the 2008 center of gravity leftward, the candidate "best positioned to capitalize on the change may be" Edwards.

The Wall Street Journal's Washington Wire reports that Warner's decision could "lift the profiles of governors Vilsack of Iowa and Richardson of New Mexico, fellow Southerner Edwards of North Carolina, and centrist alternative Sen. Bayh of Indiana."

"The Democratic Party primary electorate . . . is considerably to the left of Warner, says strategist Carter Eskew."

The Wire also has Daily Kos seeing the Warner announcement as good for Edwards and Gov. Richardson, MyDD readers speculating about Sen. Obama, and Confessions of a Hoosier Democrat seeing the decision as good for Sen. Bayh. LINK

The New York Times' Nagourney sees Sen. Clinton, Sen. Bayh, and John Edwards as the big winners. LINK

The New York Daily News on the same: LINK

The New York Post's Ian Bishop sees the path clearing for Sen. Clinton in the wake of Warner's announcement. LINK

Jill Lawrence of USA Today touts winners Bayh and Edwards. LINK

The Washington Times says Sen. Clinton benefits. LINK

Sylvia A. Smith of the Journal Gazette reports on Sen. Bayh's (D-IN) expected gain from former Gov. Mark Warner's announcement. "The smart move for Bayh . . . is to lock up any and all of Warner's supporters." LINK

Bloomberg's Brian Faler and Lee Walczak see Sen. Clinton's footprint. LINK

The Los Angeles Times is all over the lot in picking derivative winners. LINK

Mark Warner bows out: the reason(s):
The Washington Post's Michael Shear has Warner's chief operative in New Jersey sounding a Note of skepticism about the rationale for pulling out so fast: "Everyone's devastated. Why would a person pull out this fast? Is there something we don't know? Maybe he's not ready emotionally. All I ever said to him was, 'You're running, right?' And he said, 'Yes, I am.' " LINK

On ABC News' Political Radar, Teddy Davis and Karuna Seshasai write that Warner first hinted at the skepticism his daughters might feel about a White House run during a 2005 C-SPAN interview. LINK

"In his interview with Brian Lamb for C-SPAN's 'Q&A,' Warner bluntly stated that his daughters, who were 15, 14, and 11 at the time, viewed him as a 'jerk' when he temporarily moved them from northern Virginia to Richmond when he became governor."

Mark Warner bows out: 2008 Dems react:
After announcing his decision to not seek the Democratic presidential nomination in 2008, Gov. Mark Warner (D-VA) is receiving tons of praise from some of the Democrats who are still very much considering making a run for the White House. Here is a sampling:

SEN. HILLARY RODHAM CLINTON (D-NY): "I respect his decision. It's such an intensely personal decision . . . he's been a tremendous public servant, and I hope we haven't seen the last of him in Democratic politics and on the national scene."

SEN. EVAN BAYH (D-IN): "Governor Warner is an exceptional public servant, a great leader, and an influential voice in the Democratic Party. I know how tough a decision that this must have been. Mark Warner has much to contribute to the national debate and I look forward to working with him to make our future everything it can be."

SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA): "Anyone who has wrestled with this decision knows how hard it is, and Teresa and I admire Mark and Lisa's devotion to their family. I know Governor Warner will find many ways in the time ahead to continue making enormous contributions to our Party and our country. Teresa and I wish Mark and his family the very best in what the future holds for them."

GOV. BILL RICHARDSON (D-NM): "Because Mark has spent his career fighting to support our children and families, it is not surprising that he is putting his family first at this time. As a devoted father and husband he understands what is best for the Warner family, and we should not question his decision. However, I fully expect Mark will continue to fight on behalf of the Democratic Party, America's families, and for this great nation. I am sure we have not heard the last from Mark Warner."