The Note: Asking Ourselves Questions

— -- WASHINGTON, Oct. 12

Post-modern evidence that the House page scandal has not decisively changed the midterm equation:

1. Despite the confluence of the Bush-Hastert event this evening, the Kirk Fordham testimony before the ethics committee, and the Washington Post revealing fissures in the Speaker's office LINK, the Old Media and the New Media are not foaming at the mouth about the story at this hour.

2. Other news -- tin-pot dictators with nukes, Iraqi troop levels, planes into buildings -- can apparently effortlessly knock the pages off the front pages.

3. Nancy Pelosi's dogged opposition to missile defense, Harry Reid's land deals, and Sandy Berger's sticky fingers -- one is sure hearing a lot about those matters these days.

4. Dean David Broder -- all but rooting for a Democratic takeover of the congress -- says the Foley scandal "is shifting few votes." LINK

5. The Note defies you to name a competitive Senate race that has been impacted by the Mark Foley matter, and any formerly competitive Senate races now in play because of it.

6. Despite the New York Times highlighting one of the (at most) dozen or so House races that have been impacted by Foley (probably giving Democrats nearly half the seats they need to take back control -- no small thing), the House playing field has not been dramatically altered. (And Note the AP's masterful Espo reporting that the GOP is putting major coin into the Foley race. LINK

)6. Dick Morris says so. LINK

7. Here comes the avalanche of candidate, party, and shadowy 527 ads (and other voter communication) that will help Republicans define Democrats. LINK

8. Speaketh the super-sage Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report: "Republicans will have enough time to turn a last minute problem race around. . . . The bulk of the most vulnerable races for Republicans have been engaged for weeks - or in some cases months. As such, there is no the pressure on Republicans to spend the last few weeks framing the debate or defining their opponents. It's already been done." LINK

9. The swagger is back in the POTUS walk and talk.

The two highlights on today's schedule: Kirk Fordham's testimony before the House Ethics Committee, and tonight's 6:35 pm ET Chicago fundraiser with President Bush and House Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-IL).

Tonight's Hastert-Bush fundraiser, which will take place at the Chicago Hilton, is designed to benefit House candidates David McSweeney and Peter Roskam as well as the Illinois Congressional Victory Committee 2006.

McSweeney is challenging one-term Democratic incumbent Melissa Bean (D-IL) in Illinois 8th district and Peter Roskam is running against Democratic Iraq war vet Tammy Duckworth to replace retiring Rep. Henry Hyde (R-IL).

The Chicago Area chapter of the Code Pink organization holds a protest against Speaker Hastert in front of his office at 10:30 am ET in Batavia, IL. Protesters are calling the event "Housecleaning" and will be using aprons, housecoats, brooms, and sponge as props.

Earlier in the day, President Bush speaks about energy at 1:20 pm ET in St. Louis, MO.

Attempting to keep civility and ethics on the front burner, Democratic Reps. Pelosi, Waxman, and Slaughter plan to hold a conference call with some regional ed boards on the topic today. Minority Leader Pelosi is in Portland, OR this afternoon participating in an event on civility and ethics there.

Former Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R-NY) heads to New Hampshire for a series of campaign events: From 11:30-12:30 pm ET he will campaign with Rep. Mike Whalley (R-NH) in Concord; from 1:30-2:30 he attends a press conference with Rep. Whalley and NH State GOP. Chairman Wayne Simprini, also in Concord. Then he campaigns with Rep. Jeb Bradley (R-NH) in Brentwood, NH at 3:30 pm ET.

Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) hits the campaign trail for Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ), attending an event at the Kaighn Avenue Baptist Church in Camden, NJ at 10:00 am ET and another event at the Trenton War Memorial in Trenton, NJ at 12:00 pm ET in Newark, NJ. Sen. Menendez faces a tough race against Republican opponent Tom Kean, Jr.

Later today, Sen. Obama joins Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse at a fundraiser and rally at the Rhode Island College Recreation Center in Providence, RI at 5:30 pm ET. Whitehouse is up against Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R-RI).

Sen. John McCain campaigns for Sen. Jon Kyl (R-AZ) at a Veterans for Kyl Coalition rally at 6:00 pm ET in Phoenix, AZ.

Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) has a bunch of events today. Sen. Clinton joins Dan Maffei, the Democrat challenging Rep. James Walsh (R-NY) in New York's likely Republican 25th congressional district, at 10:00 am ET in Syracuse, NY. She then joins state Senator David Valesky (D-NY) to talk about after school programs.

Sen. Clinton speaks at the League of Conservation Voters 2006 Annual New York Dinner at 6:45 pm ET before joining Maffei for an 8:00 pm ET fundraiser at the Roxy in New York City.

Vice President Cheney travels to Kansas today where at 1:30 pm ET he'll speak at a luncheon for Rep. Jim Ryun (R-KS) at the Capitol Plaza Hotel Manor Conference Center in Topeka, KS. Vice President Cheney will then travel to Louisiana where at 4:45 pm ET he tours the Canal Barge Co. Port of New Orleans offices. Then at 5:15 pm ET, the Vice President will speak at an RNC reception at the Plimsoll Club in New Orleans, LA.

First Lady Laura Bush delivers remarks at a Rep. Chris Chocola (R-IN) fundraiser in South Bend, IN at 1:15 pm ET. Rep. Chocola faces a tough reelection against Democratic opponent Joe Donnelly. Mrs. Bush then participates in a Tree Planting Ceremony at Forest Park in St. Louis, MO at 3:30 pm ET. Mrs. Bush then delivers at a Sen. Jim Talent (R-MO) campaign reception in St. Louis, MO at 6:00 pm ET, before a 7:30 pm ET Arch Lighting for Breast Cancer Awareness at the St. Louis Arch in St. Louis, MO. Sen. Talent is in a competitive race for re-election with Democratic state Auditor Claire McCaskill.

According the Missouri media, the First Couple does not plan to do any meeting in St. Louis, with each other.

See below for more schedule items.

Mark Warner: Not for President?:
According the granddaddy of them all, the Hotline: "Ex-VA Gov. Mark Warner plans to make a major announcement today about his 2008 presidential bid, three Virginia Democratic sources said. According to two Virginia Democrats who have been formally briefed, Warner is expected to say that he has decided not to run for president in 2008. Warner will speak to Virginia reporters at 11:00 am ET. A Warner spokeswoman declined to comment."

Foley: Hastert:
In advance of tonight's Chicago fundraiser, the New York Times' Jim Rutenberg and Jeff Zeleny look at the evolution of President Bush's support of Speaker Hastert over the last ten days. LINK

Lynn Sweet's Chicago Sun-Times blog includes some details on Tony Snow's upcoming campaign appearance for Speaker Hastert, President Bush's $1 million haul in Chicago today for Republican candidates in the two highly competitive House seats in Illinois, the President's kind Rose Garden words for Hastert, and a small cable tv ad buy from Hastert's opponent going after the Speaker on Foley.LINK

"In the Laesch spot, a narrator says, 'the office of the speaker of the House was alerted months ago that a sexual predator was contacting underage male pages. And how did Speaker Hastert respond? He kept Rep. Mark Foley on as co-chair of the House Caucus on missing and exploited children.'"

"Then, a Reynolds' sound bite: 'I reported what I had been told to the speaker of the House." Narrator: "Yet, Dennis Hastert did nothing.'"

Foley: ethics committee:
With Hastert denying personal knowledge of Foley's activities, investigators for the House ethics committee are shining bright lights on three senior members of Hastert's staff to better construct a timeline, the Washington Post says in a must-read.LINK

The House ethics committee beings questioning those individuals closest to pages while in the Congressional program, reports the AP. LINK

Washington Times on the same: LINK

Foley: FL-16:
House Majority Leader John Boehner (R-OH) may think that FL-16 is a lost cause; but, apparently, that's not how the NRCC sees things. LINK

Brian Skoloff of the Associated Press reports that the NRCC has spent over $244,300 for television ads attacking Tim Maloney, the Democrat hoping to succeed Foley.

Foley: Pryce tells the New York Times that her poll numbers "fell precipitously":
Rep. Deborah Pryce (R-OH) tells the New York Times' Nagourney that her poll numbers "fell precipitously" following Mark Foley's resignation and her Democratic opponent's (Mary Jo Kilroy) use of the Foley scandal in advertising and on the campaign trail. LINK