The Note: Weekly Weakly

— -- WASHINGTON, Oct. 20

If you (or Ken Mehlman) thought that this would be the news cycle in which things would turn around for the Republican Party, you need to think again.

While some of the network evening newscasts paid homage to the robustish economy, and while the RNC's video press release on terror got some inexplicable "earned" media pickup, consider the iron wall into which such things run these days (based often on the Old Media's near-total inability to find upbeat Republican strategists, but also on the glee some press types feel about the current storyline).

Consider this bevy of must-read stories:

1. The Washington Post's Dan Balz and Jim VandeHei contrast Karl Rove's confidence about the midterms with blind quotes from other GOP operatives who "said privately yesterday that they now see minimum losses of perhaps 18 seats, with 25 to 30 a more likely outcome." LINK

Note that Rep. Mark Souder (R-IN) goes on the record to say that if Democrats are "successful in knocking off the three Indiana GOP lawmakers who are currently trailing in the polls" -- Republican Reps. Chris Chocola, John Hostettler, and Mike Sodrel -- "he could be washed away, too. 'This is going to be for me an all-time Republican low in this district,' he said."

2. The New York Times' David Kirkpatirck achieves must-read status with his look at the "unusually early and unusually personal" conservative implosion, full of Noteworthy interviews with the usual suspects, and including much finger pointing. LINK

The paper highlights Dick Armey's recent comments: "'The Republicans are talking about things like gay marriage and so forth, and the Democrats are talking about the things people care about, like how do I pay my bills?'"

Note the backlash from Dr. Dobson.

3. Reversing historical trends, the Democratic campaign committees for the House and Senate outraised their counterpart Republican committees, reports the Washington Post's Jeffrey Birnbaum. LINK

Note, however, that the DNC continues to lag behind the RNC.

The Wall Street Journal's Jeanne Cummings reports that the strong Democratic showing "cut the cash-on-hand advantage Republicans had a month ago to about $10 million, or nearly half." LINK

4. Dana Milbank's Washington Post headline says it all (and will not endear him to his conservative base): "During National Character Counts Week, Bush Stumps for Philanderer." LINK

Washington Post on Foley and the priest: LINK

The New York Times' Abby Goodnough reports on Foley's contact with Rev. Anthony Mercieca too. LINK

5. Washington Post's front page headline: "General Says Mission In Baghdad Falls Short." LINK

The New York Times: "U.S. Says Violence in Baghdad Rises, Foiling Campaign" LINK

6. That news "leaves President Bush with some of the ugliest choices he has yet faced in the war," write David Sanger and David Cloud in their New York Times analysis. LINK

7. In a Wall Street Journal op-ed that runs through different options for "Plan B" in Iraq, neoconservative Prof. Eliot Cohen of Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies refers to a "coup" by military modernizers that the United States quietly endorses as the "most plausible" option for the war-torn country.

8. The Washington Post's Michael Abramowitz and Thomas Ricks report that "the growing doubts among GOP lawmakers about the administration's Iraq strategy, coupled with the prospect of Democratic wins in next month's midterm elections, will soon force the Bush administration to abandon its open-ended commitment to the war, according to lawmakers in both parties, foreign policy experts and others involved in policymaking." LINK

9. Many voters across the country may not be buying the Bush Administration's strategy in Iraq and Republican candidates seem to know it, and are adjusting accordingly, reports the Los Angeles Times. Noam N. Levey, Janet Hook and Richard Simon on the GOP candidates breaking with the White House on the war for political survival. LINK

"Even some of President Bush's staunchest allies in solidly Republican states are publicly questioning the administration's war policies, while others are scrambling to find new ways to talk about Iraq in the face of rising voter frustration over management of the war."

President Bush -- who sees older Americans happy with his policies as part of a coalition of the willing-to-vote-Republican -- pivots to a domestic issue this morning by participating in a Medicare roundtable at the Department of Health and Human Services. This afternoon, the President attends a NRSC fund-raising reception at noon ET at the Mayflower Hotel in Washington, DC.

Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R-NC) attends the NRSC fundraising luncheon with President Bush this afternoon and later headlines an evening fundraiser in Washington, DC.

Rep. Tom Reynolds (R-NY) is in his upstate New York district today and attends an Erie County fundraiser this evening with Karl Rove, which is supposed to merit live C-SPAN coverage.

Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) is back home in Nevada today.

Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) is in New York City this morning then travels to Georgia to do some fundraising with Bill Clinton and Rep. John Lewis (D-GA). Clinton and Pelosi then travel down to Florida for a rally with Democratic congressional candidate Ron Klein. Look for the potential speaker to be profiled on a certain grand-daddy-of-them-all Sunday newsmag show this weekend.

Rep. Rahm Emanuel (D-IL) is fundraising in Florida today and will meet up with his former boss, President Clinton, down there to help bring more cash into DCCC coffers.

Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) and her opponent former mayor of Yonkers John Spencer (R-NY) participate in their first televised debate at 7:00 pm ET in Rochester, NY. The debate will be carried live on NY1 News in New York City and on Time Warner cable stations throughout the Empire State. (Catch the 8:00 pm tape delay on C-SPAN, if you are outside of New York, or stream it on the web live on the NY1 website.)

Vice President Cheney delivers remarks at 11:00 am ET to the Indiana Air and Army National Guard at Camp Atterbury in Indiana.

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) has cancelled all of his public events today. The Arizona Senator's PAC released a statement saying that McCain was headed to Arizona to be with his mother-in-law, who is gravely ill.

RNC Chairman Ken Mehlman attends a grassroots rally in Rolling Meadow, IL at 12:00 pm ET.

DNC Chairman Howard Dean campaigns for senatorial candidate Ned Lamont (D-CT) and gubernatorial candidate John DeStefano (D-CT) at 12:00 pm ET in Hartford, CT.

Former Senator John Edwards (D-NC) addresses a campaign rally for congressional candidate Heath Shuler (D-NC) at 4:00 pm ET in Asheville, NC.

Former Gov. Mark Warner (D-VA) attends a rally with Senatorial candidate Jim Webb (D-VA) and congressional candidates Phil Kellam (D-VA) and Shawn O'Donnell (D-VA) at the Local 8888 headquarters in Newport News, VA.

Gov. Tom Vilsack (D-IA) campaigns with gubernatorial candidate Dina Titus in Reno, Nevada at 10:00 am ET. At 12:00 pm ET, he delivers the Heartland PAC's Votes Declaration, a petition with more than 10,000 signatures to Nevada Secretary of State. Later, Gov. Vilsack meets with the NV Democratic Party in also in Reno at 1:45 pm ET.

Senatorial candidate Jon Tester casts his ballot early in Fort Benton, MT today. Tester is the Democrat who is hoping to defeat GOP incumbent Sen. Conrad Burns.

Sen. Jon Kyl (R-AZ) debates challenger Democrat Jim Pederson in Flagstaff AZ.

Gen. Wesley Clark (D-AR) spends the weekend in New Hampshire. He speaks at a Portsmouth Democrats dinner at 6:00 pm ET in Portsmouth today.

You will not want to miss "This Week with George Stephanopoulos" on Sunday with his full interview with President Bush and an exclusive Sunday morning interview with Bush's 2004 opponent, Sen. John Kerry. LINK

Homestretch money:
Jim Kuhnhenn of the Associated Press Notes that the combined DNC/DSCC/DCCC cash on hand deficit was cut in half (from $20 million to $10 million) by the end of September. LINK

Kuhnhenn adds up the numbers:

"The Republican National Committee was the top GOP fundraiser, collecting $13 million. It reported $26 million in hand."

"The National Republican Congressional Committee, the House organization, reported raising $12 million and had $39.2 million in hand."

"The National Republican Senatorial Committee said it raised $5.15 million and had $12 million in the bank."

"The Democratic National Committee reported raising $5.6 million and had $8.2 million in hand."

"The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee said it raised $13.6 million and had $23.1 million in the bank."

"The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the House organization, reported $14.4 million raised and $36 million cash on hand."

While Democrats are raking it in, Republicans are still better at putting it away. The New York Times' Jeff Zeleny, taking a break from ethics duty, has the numbers, and just what each party plans to do with that money before November 7. LINK

2006: landscape:
Per the Wall Street Journal's Wirey John Harwood, voters over 50 favor Democrats for control of Congress by 20 percentage points, according to a Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll. "As Republicans brace for renewed Democratic campaign attacks on Social Security, older voters favor Bush's adversaries on the issue by more than 30 percentage points."