The Note: Republicans as Democrats

— -- WASHINGTON, Oct. 24

In three straight national elections and scores of legislative and public relations battles, the Bush-Rove-Mehlman political machine has rarely lost to the Democrats in over six years.

Now, on the brink of what many believe will be a midterm election in which Democrats will win big, the Republican Party finds itself in a position to which it is unaccustomed.

How is the Grand Old Party handling all this?

By either cause or effect (or, perhaps, both), Republicans are acting like Democrats.

To wit:

1. They are suffering from the classic "nothing is sticking" lack of confidence, so they are switching messages nearly as fast as they can come up with them, guaranteeing that, well, nothing will stick: "Pelosi is liberal," "Rangel is liberal," "they will raise your taxes," "they are unethical," "they will let the terrorists win," "CNN shows snipers," "Democrats won't give you energy independence," etc. If it's Thursday, it must be "Harry Reid Is Unethical Day!"

2. They are playing the intra-party blame game: the White House is blaming the Hill; congressional staffers are blaming the party's 2008 presidential candidates; the campaign committees are blaming the campaigns; the campaign strategists are blaming the White House and the candidates; the candidates are blaming everybody (but themselves).

3. They are overreacting to good poll news -- and to bad poll news.

4. They are making spending decisions with the certainty with which most Americans pick lottery numbers.

5. Their lobbyists and Gang of 500 members are not only resigned to losing, but thinking it might be better for the country and the party if they did.

6. They have forgotten what it is like to be in the minority.

7. They have forgotten that using exact language matters.

8. They keep WAITING to win two news cycles in a row, by providence, rather than executing a plan to do just that.

9. They are filling the papers with blind and on-the-record quotes predicting defeat and doing pre-game post mortems.

10. They don't know what they stand for, but promise a focused search for it.

11. They feel they would rather be the other team than themselves as far as strategic positioning is concerned.

12. They are watching helplessly as the other side hides many of its real positions with steely discipline.

13. They are seeing the opposition live more than they are by the dictum "what's mine is mine, and what's yours let's talk about" regarding groups such as rural voters, religious voters, and fiscal conservatives.

13. They are forgetting the famous Franklin axiom: We must all hang together, or assuredly we shall all hang separately.

Members of the small-but-hearty group of Republicans who are not subject to the Democratization described above will gather on this Tuesday for radio day at the White House.

Huge tents will be set up on the north lawn. Sean Hannity is scheduled to tape an interview with Vice President Cheney at 10:30 am ET for playback in his radio show which runs between 3:00 pm and 6:00 pm ET. Karl Rove will also make himself available for select interviews.

President Bush attends a reception for Vern Buchanan, the Republican running against Democrat Christine Jennings for the House seat being vacated by Rep. Katherine Harris (R-FL), at 1:50 pm ET in Sarasota, FL. Bush also attends an RNC reception at a private residence at 5:00 pm ET.

First Lady Laura Bush delivers remarks at a Pennsylvania Victory 2006 rally at the Sellersville Fire Co. in Sellersville, PA at 1:10 pm ET. Then at 2:15 pm ET, Mrs. Bush participates in a tour and accepts the Pearl S. Buck Woman of the Year award in Persasie, PA. Mrs. Bush then head to Wisconsin where she delivers 7:15 pm ET remarks at a John Gard for Congress Rally at the Swan Club in De Pere, WI. Gard is running against Democrat Steve Kagen to fill the seat being vacated by Rep. Mark Green (R-WI) who is challenging Gov. Jim Doyle (D-WI).

Former President Clinton campaigns on Gov. Doyle's behalf in Milwaukee, WI before speaking at the Jefferson Jackson Democratic Fundraiser Dinner in a Louisville, KY at 4:00 pm ET. Three Republican House incumbents from Kentucky -- Ron Lewis, Anne Northup, and Geoff Davis are all in competitive -- find themselves in competitive races for re-election. Clinton is expected to be introduced by John Yarmuth, the Democrat challenging Rep. Anne Northup (R-KY).LINK

NRCC Chairman Tom Reynolds (R-NY), Hastert deputy chief of staff Mike Stokke, and Hastert staff counsel Ted Van Der Meid are expected to testify before the House Ethics Committee. The DCCC launched an ad Monday targeting Rep. Reynolds for allegedly voting against a bonus for US troops while approving "six different pay raises for himself." Reynolds, the Republican charged with helping elect his party colleagues to the House, is locked in a tough race in his Buffalo district.

DSCC Chairman Chuck Schumer (D-NY), who rarely does candidate campaign events, joins Sheldon Whitehouse, the Democrat challenging Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R-RI), at a 1:00 pm ET roundtable lunch discussion with supporters of abortion rights in Providence, RI. While Sen. Chafee voted against Justice Alito's Supreme Court nomination, Whitehouse says he would have voted against both Alito and Chief Justice John Roberts. He also would reserve the right to filibuster to block similar nominees in the future.

Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) leads get-out-the-vote efforts for Ed Perlmutter, the Democrat running against Rick O'Donnell in Colorado's 7th congressional district, at 5:00 pm ET.

Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) attends the dedication of the Lieutenant Michael Murphy Post Office at 10:45 am ET in Patchogue, NY. The Senator then receives endorsements from the Nassau County PBA, Suffolk County PBA and the Nassau County Detectives Association at the Suffolk County Police Benevolent Association at 12:45 pm ET in Bohemia, NY. Later today, Sen. Clinton participates in the "Count Me in Make Mine a Million Dollar Business" event with Suze Orman, Dany Levy and five local New York City women entrepreneurs at the Manhattan Center's Hammerstein Ballroom at 3:45 pm ET in New York City.

Former Vice President Gore joins Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-WA) on the campaign trail today. At 1:15 pm ET, Gore will talk about "halting global warming and building an industry around alternative energy at Seattle University." LINK

Yesterday, Gore campaigned for Proposition 87 in Oakland, CA. LINK

Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA) is attending political events in California and Nevada.

Polling:
"There's no question that the Democratic wave is building," reported ABC News' George Stephanopoulos on "Good Morning America."

"In the battle for control of Congress, Democrats are in control," added Stephanopoulos.

When asked to compare this year to 1994, Stephanopoulos cautioned that Republicans were far better prepared in protecting themselves all year long than the Democrats were in 1994, but that "in some ways the wave is even bigger" than 1994.

ABC polling director Gary Langer writes: "It's two weeks away, and the 2006 midterm elections look like a referendum on Iraq, a war in which President Bush and his party have lost not just the political center but significant chunks of their base."LINK

With exactly two weeks to go before the midterm elections, the Democrats have pulled a 2 to 1 advantage over Republicans among independents according to the ABC News/Washington Post poll, report the Washington Post's Dan Balz and Jon Cohen. Those who say the Iraq war is the most important issue in determining their vote favor Democrats 76 percent to 21 percent. LINK

With voters focused on national issues, Chairman Reynolds' "all politics is local" strategy may be in jeopardy, report USA Today's Susan Page and Jill Lawrence. LINK

According to a USA Today/Gallup Poll, "43% of likely voters say national issues will make the biggest difference in their vote; 24% say local or state issues. That's the first overwhelming edge for national issues since the question was first asked in a Times Mirror poll in 1994."

"A cascade of Republican misfortunes, including a string of ethics scandals and escalating violence in Iraq, has set the stage for a Democratic resurgence. Only an event as dramatic as the capture of Osama bin Laden or a terrorist attack could reverse the trend toward Democrats, analysts say."

The Way to Win:
Keep up with the authors of The Way to Win: Taking the White House in 2008 all day today, as Mark Halperin of ABC News and John F. Harris of the Washington Post continue their book tour bonanza today:

The Diane Rehm Show
10 am ET
LINK

The O'Reilly Factor
9 pm ET
LINK

The Hugh Hewitt Show
Check local listings here. LINK

Or, cut out the electronic middleman and buy your copy of the ultimate guide to 2008 here. LINK

Bush Administration agenda:
"A major effort to draw Latinos and blacks into the Republican Party, a central element of the GOP plan to build a long-lasting majority, is in danger of collapse amid anger over the immigration debate and claims that Republican leaders have not delivered on promises to direct more money to church-based social services," writes Peter Wallsten of the Los Angeles Times in an important must read. LINK

In analyzing the Bush Administration's about face on its Iraq rhetoric, Peter Baker of the Washington Post writes that the White House is "cutting and running" from "stay the course." Baker also Notes that Republican strategists are glad to see "stay the course" dropped because it's not conveying what Republicans want it to convey and Democrats have been able to capitalize. LINK

Jeremy Wallace of the Herald Tribune reports that President Bush will be in the Sunshine State for the 44th time since he won the 2000 election. LINK

2006: "This Time, It's Not the Economy":

" . . . Republican candidates do not seem to be getting any traction from the glowing economic statistics with midterm elections just two weeks away," writes the New York Times' Eduardo Porter in a must-read examination of the very strong economic news seemingly unable to filter down into individual races as an electoral motivator. LINK

"The economy is virtually nowhere to be found among the campaign ads of embattled Republican incumbents fighting to hold onto their House or Senate seats. Nor is it showing up as a strong weapon in the arsenal of Republican governors defending their jobs from Democrats."

More Porter: "Republicans' inability to harness an improving economy in their political favor appears mostly to be a function of the weight of other big national issues stacked against them. Prime among them are voters' growing concerns about the costs of the war in Iraq, fed by a stream of American casualties displayed every night on television."

2006: landscape:
While still making time to appear on the NewsHour with the Washington Post's Jim VandeHei, the New York Times' Adam Nagourney declares an end to the bluffing season and sizes up the battlefield by looking at where the parties are spending their dollars. LINK

"The latest polls show something very strange and quite encouraging is happening: The Republican base seems to be coming back home. This trend, only vaguely and dimly emerging from a variety of polls, suggests that a trend may be afoot that would deny the Democrats control of the House and the Senate," write Dick Morris and Eileen McGann. LINK