The Note: Polls Versus Guts

— -- WASHINGTON, Nov. 3

Vice President Cheney delivers remarks to troops at Fort Carson Butts Army Airfield in Fort Carson, CO at 3:15 pm ET. ABC News' George Stephanopoulos sits down today for an exclusive interview with Mr. Cheney.

Excerpts of the interview will first air on "World News with Charles Gibson" this evening and you won't want to miss the entire interview on Sunday on "This Week with George Stephanopoulos." Also on "This Week," DNC Chairman Howard Dean plans to be live with Stephanopoulos to respond to Mr. Cheney's remarks and make the closing Democratic sales pitch.

President Bush attends Missouri Victory 2006 rallies at the Springfield Exposition Center in Springfield, MO at 10:00 am ET and Missouri Southern State University in Joplin, MO at 12:50 pm ET. Mr. Bush then heads to an Iowa Victory 2006 fund-raising rally at 6:00 pm ET at Le Mars Community High School in Le Mars, Iowa.

"If the White House hasn't already hit your mail box -- either work or personal -- with an email touting the lowest unemployment rate since the spring of 2001, you're probably too hard to get a hold of," writes ABC News' Dan Arnall.

"The unemployment rate dropped to a five-year low of 4.4 percent in October as employers added 92,000 new jobs - flashing a picture of a strong labor market as the midterm elections draw near," reports the Associated Press on what will likely become one of the President's big talking points of the day.

Iowa Democratic Party Chair Sally Pederson will holds a bracketing conference call with reporters at 10:00 am ET and a press conference in Sioux City at 2:00 pm ET to respond to President Bush's visit.

Anyone else Notice this White House press release last night? Interesting timing to declare federal aid on its way to the Show-Me State just as the President plans a day of campaigning there. Be sure to Note the dates of the storms.

"The President today declared a major disaster exists in the State of Missouri and ordered Federal aid to supplement State and local recovery efforts in the area struck by severe storms during the period of July 19-21, 2006."

First Lady Laura Bush begins her public day at 1:00 pm ET at a California Victory Rally in Pleasanton, CA. She then delivers remarks at a New Mexico Victory Rally in Albuquerque, NM at 5:00 pm ET.

Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R-NY) has five events all over New Hampshire today -- in a state in which one and maybe two Republican incumbent House members are facing some trouble -- followed by a rally for Rep. John Sweeney (R-NY) in Clifton Park, NY. He campaigns for Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA) in Wilkes Barre, PA at 7:00 pm ET.

RNC Chairman Ken Mehlman attends a rally for Rep. Geoff Davis in Kentucky and then heads to a Steele for Senate fundraiser and rally in Maryland. This weekend Mehlman plans to be in Minnesota, Nevada, and Montana.

Sen. Hillary Clinton traverses New York to attend several events and campaign with New York Democrats, including gubernatorial candidate Eliot Spitzer, Rep. Brian Higgins (D-NY), and congressional candidates Eric Massa (D-NY) running in the 29th district and Michael Arcuri (D-NY) who is running in the 24th district.

Former President Bill Clinton attends a get-out-the-vote rally for Democratic gubernatorial candidate Mike Beebe at Jonesboro Municipal Airport at 11:00 am ET in Jonesboro, AR.

Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA) campaigns in Michigan today with gubernatorial candidate Dick DeVos (R-MI), just as a new DeVos ad featuring John McCain is hitting the airwaves.

Be sure to check out our look at the weekend in politics below. Also be sure to join in the political debate on ABC News Now. Send in your tough questions and sharp opinions on video to us at Be Seen, Be Heard and we'll address them on ABC News Now during our live coverage Election Day.

Give America and us a piece of your mind! The link for Be Seen Be Heard is: LINK

You'll be able to catch Charlie Gibson's "Countdown to Vote 2006" daily webcast today shortly after 12:30 pm ET where Charlie, Mark Halperin, and others assess the state of play four days before the election.

You can also always check back to the Politics page at abcnews.com later in the day to catch the webcast at anytime. LINK

Bush Administration agenda:
William Broad of the New York Times writes the kind of lede that has already and will likely continue to soak up some unfriendly television time for the Administration four days out from Election Day. LINK

"Last March, the federal government set up a Web site to make public a vast archive of Iraqi documents captured during the war. The Bush administration did so under pressure from Congressional Republicans who had said they hoped to "leverage the Internet" to find new evidence of the prewar dangers posed by Saddam Hussein."

"But in recent weeks, the site has posted some documents that weapons experts say are a danger themselves: detailed accounts of Iraq's secret nuclear research before the 1991 Persian Gulf war. The documents, the experts say, constitute a basic guide to building an atom bomb."

The Washington Post's Al Kamen contrasts the way Democrats jumped on Sen. Kerry with the support Karen Hughes has given to Alberto Fernandez, head of public diplomacy for the Middle East, who said the Bush Administration "had been arrogant and stupid in its Iraq foray" in Arabic in an Oct. 21 interview with al-Jazeera television. "Then he apologized, saying he somehow misspoke." LINK

President Bush's campaign trail:
The President's "political magic dust" isn't what it used to be, but it is still the biggest drink-stirring straw in American politics. The New York Times' Jim Rutenberg writes pitch perfectly on President Bush's home stretch campaigning and wisely pays attention to that all important local media coverage. LINK

The Washington Post's Peter Baker looks at the President's schedule and writes, "A Republican president normally would not need to come to a conservative bastion such as Montana this close to an election, nor to Nevada's 2nd District, which has never voted for a Democrat since it was created in 1982. But Bush is playing defense in red-state territory and sticking to states that voted for him two years ago." LINK

The Wall Street Journal's John McKinnon reports that President Bush's planned stops in northwestern Iowa and the Florida Panhandle are designed "largely to increase turnout in rural areas, without stirring opposition in urban ones" while helping gubernatorial candidates like Iowa's Jim Nussle and Florida's Charlie Crist.

The Denver Post previews the Rocky Mountain State push by Vice President Cheney in Colorado today shoring up Republican support in two races that emerged late as competitive this cycle in the fourth and fifth congressional districts. LINK

The New York Daily News' Helen Kennedy has the last ditch punches: "Barnstorming in the red states, [President Bush] all but said Democrats love terrorists. Democratic Party Chairman Howard Dean called Bush worse than Richard Nixon because at least Nixon was competent. And everybody said John Kerry should just shut up." LINK

The Las Vegas Review Journal writes up President Bush's Elko, NV appearance with Rep. Jim Gibbons, Sen. Ensign, and Dean Heller all representing the Silver State GOP ticket. LINK

The Washington Times' Joseph Curl: LINK

GOP agenda:
The Wall Street Journal's Jackie Calmes does her post-mortem early, writing that the "widespread sense that Republicans in Congress have lost their way, drifting into the same abuses they had pledged to end, helps explain why many, like" Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R-AZ) "are in trouble. The Republicans' 1994 'Contract with America' vowed to shrink government, balance the budget and limit members' terms. The Republicans said they would end Congress's 'cycle of scandal and disgrace.' That contract is now broken, conservatives say, as the former rebels have morphed into an establishment clinging to power. The national debt now nears $9 trillion. Rather than curb entitlement programs' growth, Republicans created a new one -- Medicare's prescription-drug benefit -- and rejected President Bush's call to overhaul Social Security. Their original vow to kick the pork barrel has given way to gorging on 'earmarks' -- funds lawmakers specifically set aside for special projects -- in the annual appropriations bills. There have been a number of corruption probes."

The Washington Post's Alan Cooperman and Juliet Eilperin report that Dick Armey and James Dobson are "going after each other tooth and claw." LINK

Rev. Ted Haggard resigns:
The Washington Post's Alan Cooperman calls Haggard a "staunch ally of the Bush administration" and writes that "some political observers said his resignation was more bad news for Republicans trying to rally their conservative Christian base to turn out for the midterm elections." LINK

Democratic agenda:
The Washington Post's Charles Krauthammer, following in the Barone/Barnes footsteps to take the sting out of any GOP losses, lays out who he thinks will be defeated on Tuesday while arguing that a Democratic win won't mean much because the party did not lay out a "coherent alternative to the current policy" in Iraq. LINK

The Washington Times' Gregory Lopes looks at the Democrats' push for embryonic stem-cell research and letting Medicare negotiate for lower drug prices. LINK

"Though it is impossible to say what would have happened had the minimum not been raised," the Wall Street Journal's Deborah Solomon report that Oregon's experience with a minimum wage hike "suggests the most strident doomsayers were wrong. Private, nonfarm payrolls are up 8% over the past four years, nearly twice the national increase. Wages are up, too. Job growth is strong in industries employing many minimum-wage workers, such as restaurants and hotels. Oregon's estimated 5.4% unemployment rate for 2006, though higher than the national average, is down from 7.6% in 2002, when the state was emerging from a recession." LINK

Pelosi politics:
Joe Garofoli of the San Francisco Chronicle acknowledges that "If Nancy Pelosi becomes speaker of the House, it will be on the Republicans' list of top five talking points every week" as her " San Francisco values" will run the House. LINK

The Way to Win:
Michiko Kakutani of the New York Times weighs in this morning with a review of the Mark Halperin/John Harris book The Way to Win: Taking the White House in 2008, calling it "smart" and "savvy," and saying the book is "revealing, shedding retrospective light on Mr. Bush's victories in 2000 and 2004, and casting new light on the possible outcome of next week's midterm elections." LINK

Sounds like Note readers should spend the weekend curled up with it -- buy your copy here. LINK

2006: landscape:
The Note has (re)learned that the DCCC is spending in some 50 races in 26 states in the closing days.

The Washington Post's Jonathan Weisman and Chris Cillizza report that financial reports filed yesterday with the Federal Election Commission showed that, "on Wednesday alone," the DCCC spent "$12.4 million on advertising in 36 districts"; the NRCC spent "$5.9 million on commercials in 17 districts."LINK