Why Chris Christie and Bobby Jindal Could Miss the Next GOP Debate

Five candidates are in danger of missing the next debate stages.

ByABC News
November 4, 2015, 9:11 PM

— -- The 2016 presidential race has already changed shape since the third Republican debate just last week -- and now it looks like the GOP debate lineups could also be changing.

It's possible that we could have already seen our last Republican debate with 10 candidates packed onto a stage.

An ABC News analysis of recent national polls shows that Chris Christie is likely to be excluded from the fourth Republican debate slated for next Tuesday in Milwaukee.

A Fox Business rep told ABC News that the network will reveal the debate stage participants on Thursday at 7 p.m.

“We won’t know until tonight," Christie said on Fox News Thursday morning. "But listen, the bottom line is you need to be on a stage and debating. And so I will be on a stage debating one way or another, wherever they put me. You want to put one in the middle of the square in Manchester, I’ll do it there. People need to hear our voice and our ideas.”

In order to make the mainstage debate, a candidate must hit an average of 2.5 percent in the four most recent national polls, according to Fox Business criteria. A candidate must hit at least 1 percent in at least one of those four of those polls to make the undercard debate.

But Christie isn't the only candidate whose participation in next Tuesday's debate is in jeopardy. Bobby Jindal is also in danger of getting excluded from the undercard debate next week.

The men were at 2 percent and less than 0.5 percent respectively in a Fox New poll out today.

George Pataki and Lindsey Graham are also on the chopping block, both facing the possibility of watching the undercard debate from home. Not to mention, there's also a chance that Mike Huckabee will also be cast to the undercard debate.

The rest of the field is almost certain to make the cut.

It all depends on which polls Fox Business chooses to include in their calculations. The network has said that they would include polls from "major, nationally-recognized organizations that use standard methodological techniques."

Last time, Fox News opted not to use a poll from NBC/WSJ. And a poll from Investor's Business Daily could also make or break certain candidates depending on whether Fox Business choosing to include or not include the numbers.