John Kasich’s Projected Second Place Finish In New Hampshire Explained

ABC News projects that Ohio Gov. John Kasich will finish second in New Hampshire

ByABC News
February 9, 2016, 9:42 PM

— -- ABC News is projecting that Ohio Gov. John Kasich will finish second in the New Hampshire Republican primary Tuesday night and he did so as a kind of anti-Donald Trump candidate, earning his best support among some of Trump’s weakest groups.

Here’s a look at seven factors that earned him a projected second-place finish in the Granite State, according to vote analysis and exit poll results:

*Some 45 percent of New Hampshire GOP voters were looking for experience rather than a political outsider –- and Kasich got 28 percent in this group, followed by Bush and Rubio, with 20 and 18 percent, respectively. (Trump did very well “outsider” voters).

*A third of Republican voters said they oppose Trump’s call to temporarily ban Muslims from entering the United States; Kasich won this group, with 27 percent support.

*Kasich virtually tied Trump among moderates and liberals -– 31 percent for Trump, 29 percent for Kasich. But support for Kasich plummeted among conservatives, to 11 percent, and they accounted for seven in 10 voters.

*Almost half of voters said they’re dissatisfied rather than angry with the way the federal government is working. Trump got 42 percent of angry voters, slipping to 30 percent of those who are merely dissatisfied -– still enough to win in this group, but with Kasich next, at 21 percent among people who are dissatisfied. (Kasich did just half that well among angry voters.)

*Nearly half of GOP voters decided in just the last few days, and Kasich was competitive with Trump in this group – 22 percent for Trump, 21 percent for Kasich. Trump, though, did much better with early deciders.

*While Trump’s support peaked among less-educated voters, Kasich’s followed the opposite pattern. He did best, 22 percent, among post-graduates, and his worst, 9 percent, among GOP voters who haven’t gone beyond high school.

*Finally, Kasich finished second to Trump in who’s most trusted to handle the economy –- 40 percent picked Trump, 19 percent picked Kasich. Far as that is from the Donald, it left Kasich with bragging rights over the rest of the field.

Edison Research conducted this exit poll at polling places throughout New Hampshire today for the National Election Pool. The results were analyzed here by Langer Research Associates for ABC News. Analysts: Gary Langer, Gregory Holyk, Julie Phelan, Chad Kiewiet de Jonge, Meg Tyson, Sofi Sinozich and Ally Brodsky.

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