How is the Harris coalition different from Biden’s?
For the first half of 2024, a huge question for the Biden campaign was whether he would lose a critical amount of support with key blocs of voters that supported him in 2020, such as Black voters and young voters. Now, however, Harris is running instead, and her coalition isn’t necessarily the same as Biden’s.
In a new article, 538 Senior Researcher Mary Radcliffe took a deep dive into national polls to answer the question of who, exactly, makes up the Harris coalition. She also compared Harris’ polling numbers among various racial, gender and age groups to Biden’s. It turns out that Harris has shored up a lot of Biden’s weaknesses -- and it’s pretty surprising which group she is outpacing him with by the most.
—538’s Nathaniel Rakich