Republican debate highlights and analysis: Fiery faceoff on Trump, Ukraine and more

The 2024 hopefuls took the stage in Milwaukee on Wednesday night, without Trump.

By538 and ABC News
Last Updated: August 23, 2023, 8:19 PM EDT

The first Republican debate of the 2024 presidential primary was held in Milwaukee on Wednesday night.

Eight candidates qualified for a spot on the stage: North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, former Vice President Mike Pence, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott.

Missing from the event was the primary's early front-runner: former President Donald Trump, who declined to participate and instead released a pre-recorded interview with Tucker Carlson.

ABC News and FiveThirtyEight live-blogged every major moment and highlight from the debate, aired on Fox News, with FiveThirtyEight providing analysis and a closer look at the polling and data behind the politicians. PolitiFact made real-time fact checks of key statements.

Read deeper:

Here's how the news developed. All times Eastern.
Aug 23, 2023, 8:19 PM EDT

Why DeSantis, Ramaswamy will literally be center stage

DeSantis and Ramaswamy, both newcomers to the presidential debate stage, will appear front and center on Wednesday night.

That's because where candidates will stand was determined by how they are faring in the polls.

This combination of photos shows Republican presidential candidates Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, and Vivek Ramaswamy
AP

More seasoned politicians, such as Pence or Christie, have been placed closer to the outer rim because of their more middling numbers so far. Hutchinson and Burgum will stand on either end.

-ABC News' Alexandra Hutzler

Aug 23, 2023, 8:16 PM EDT

Which candidates are winning the money race?

Money isn’t the be-all-and-end-all of political campaigns — but it sure helps, especially during the early phases of a primary. And in the 2024 pocketbook primary, the leaders so far are Trump (who raised $17.7 million in April, May and June) and DeSantis (who raised $20.1 million). These figures are striking, but you also have to account for how much time each candidate has been in the race. For instance, DeSantis jumped in in late May, so he had much less time in which to raise that money than Trump. Here’s a chart of who raised the most in the second quarter on a prorated basis.

But there’s also important context that those topline fundraising numbers don’t tell you. For instance, Burgum’s and Ramaswamy’s totals aren’t as impressive as they look — most of their fundraising came from their own wallets rather than from grassroots donors. Burgum self-funded $10.1 million of his $11.8 million haul, and Ramaswamy self-funded $5.0 million of his $7.7 million total.

On the other end of the spectrum, Scott is in better financial shape than his $5.9 million raised would suggest. That’s because he has more than $21 million cash on hand, thanks to money he carried over from his high-rolling Senate campaigns.

-Analysis by Nathaniel Rakich of FiveThirtyEight

Aug 23, 2023, 8:14 PM EDT

Who’s dishing out for advertisements?

One challenger to Trump has surged ahead — in ad buys, at least. Scott announced an $8 million ad buy this month. The bulk of that, $6.6 million, will go toward TV advertisements in early primary states Iowa and New Hampshire, according to the Washington Post. That’s on top of the $40 million ad buy planned by a super PAC supporting Scott that was announced last month.

Trump and DeSantis, the two front-runners, had dominated in early ad spending. But challengers like Scott have stepped up as they’ve tried to qualify for debates and raise name recognition in early voting states. Super PACs supporting Haley and Burgum have also increased spending recently. Stand for America Fund, Inc., which is aligned with Haley, spent $2.3 million on ads so far in August, while Best of America, which backs Burgum, has spent $2.1 million, according to reporting from NBC News.

Meanwhile, Trump-supporting PACs have spent millions on the former president’s legal fees as the number of indictments filed against him has risen to four. That will leave less money for spending on ads going forward, but Trump remains the top campaign fundraiser.

-Analysis by Monica Potts of FiveThirtyEight

Aug 23, 2023, 8:00 PM EDT

Trump has a huge lead in the endorsement primary

In 2016, Trump was the ultimate outsider candidate — he didn’t receive a single endorsement from a sitting senator, representative or governor until after he had already won New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada. This year, though, he already has a ton of elite support. According to the FiveThirtyEight endorsement tracker, he has 343 endorsement points — nearly eight times as many as DeSantis, who is in second place.

Updating tracker of endorsements in the 2024 Republican primary, weighted by the prominence of each endorser.
FiveThirtyEight

The 2016 race notwithstanding, endorsements have historically been very predictive of who eventually wins a party’s nomination. The candidate with the most FiveThirtyEight endorsement points on the day before the Iowa caucuses has won 11 of the last 17 Republican and Democratic primary fights without an incumbent president. And when that candidate has a dominant endorsement lead, they win even more often: Endorsement leaders who had collected more than 15 percent of the estimated available endorsement points before Iowa won nine times out of 10. And Trump already has 17 percent of all available endorsement points with five months left until Iowa.

-Analysis by Nathaniel Rakich of FiveThirtyEight

Related Topics