Addressing his first divided Congress, Biden says 'the soul of this nation is strong'

Republicans interjected during his speech and pushed back in their own.

Last Updated: February 8, 2023, 10:39 AM EST

President Joe Biden on Tuesday night delivered his second State of the Union address in a pivotal moment as he laid out not only his accomplishments and agenda but made the case for his leadership ahead of an expected announcement on running for reelection.

Unlike his first two years in office, Republicans now control the House of Representatives and Speaker Kevin McCarthy, sitting behind the president for the first time, has threatened to block Biden's agenda.

Partners at FiveThirtyEight provided analysis in the blog below before, during and after Biden's speech.

Feb 07, 2023, 8:35 PM EST

Biden's SOTU pitch echoes Reagan's 'stay the course'

In the post-World War II era, only three presidents have had a lower approval rating at this point in their presidency than Biden.

Two of those presidents -- Jimmy Carter and Donald Trump -- went on to lose reelection.

The third was Ronald Reagan. In 1983, he was unpopular and facing critics who said he was too old. But the next year, Reagan won reelection in the biggest landslide in the history of modern American politics, winning every state except for Minnesota, home of his Democratic opponent, Walter Mondale.

It’s no accident that Biden is echoing Reagan’s message from 40 years ago. Back then, the country was just starting to recover from high inflation and high interest rates. Reagan acknowledged the pain in his own State of the Union address and, as he launched his reelection bid, his campaign buttons urged the country to “STAY THE COURSE."

Biden’s message on Tuesday? “Finish the job.”

-ABC News Chief Washington Correspondent Jonathan Karl

Feb 07, 2023, 8:38 PM EST

Pelosi tells ABC Biden's message will be 'how we go forward'

As she made her way to the House chamber, Rep. Nancy Pelosi told ABC News that she's "thrilled" to hear what Biden has to say to Congress.

"I'm so excited about tonight. The president will talk about what he has accomplished. It'll be a message of progress and hope about how we go forward and what more needs to be done and what the path is to that," Pelosi said.

The California Democrat, who has witnessed several presidents -- Biden included -- deliver State of the Union addresses from the dais as House speaker, insisted that there was much for Biden to "brag about."

"I'm really quite thrilled," she continued. "I can't remember being so thrilled on the State of the Union, because there's so much for him to brag about, but also that he knows needs to be done."

-ABC News' Will Steakin

Rep. Nancy Pelosi arrives for President Joe Biden's State of the Union address to a joint session of Congress at the U.S. Capitol, Feb. 7, 2023, in Washington.
Patrick Semansky/AP

Feb 07, 2023, 7:55 PM EST

Congress probably won’t do most of the things Biden is requesting

Biden is going to call on Congress to do a lot in his speech -- he’ll talk about the issues he thinks are ripe for action and the policies he wants Congress to prioritize. But lawmakers probably won’t follow through on most of them.

According to an analysis of legislation passed after every State of the Union address since 1965, conducted by political scientists Donna Hoffman and Allison Howard, Congress only fully enacted 24.3% of a president’s requests, on average, and partially enacted another 13.8%.

In some years -- like 2016 and 2020 -- none of the requests were acted on. So even if Biden makes big, bold proposals for Congress, don’t expect most of them to become reality.

-FiveThirtyEight’s Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux

Feb 07, 2023, 7:32 PM EST

In GOP response, Sarah Huckabee Sanders will highlight Democratic 'failures'

Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders plans to use the Republicans' official State of the Union rebuttal to tear into President Joe Biden and the Democrats, focusing heavily on culture war issues while highlighting where she says the economy has failed.

According to excerpts of her speech shared by her office, Sanders, the country's youngest governor and a White House press secretary under President Donald Trump, will pan Democrats as high taxers who "[light] your hard-earned money on fire." But most of the highlights previewed by her office focused on labeling the Democratic Party as a "woke" group in almost religious terms.

"You get crushed with high gas prices, empty grocery shelves and our children are taught to hate one another on account of their race, but not to love one another or our great country. ... And while you reap the consequences of their failures, the Biden administration seems more interested in woke fantasies than the hard reality Americans face every day," she will say. "Most Americans simply want to live their lives in freedom and peace, but we are under attack in a left-wing culture war we didn’t start and never wanted to fight."

"Every day, we are told that we must partake in their rituals, salute their flags, and worship their false idols … all while big government colludes with Big Tech to strip away the most American thing there is -- your freedom of speech."

Republicans like Trump and others are already preparing to challenge Biden ahead of his expected reelection bid, with party leaders divided over the best approach. Sanders, Trump and others have embraced social issues, while others have focused on inflation and government spending.

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