Addressing his first divided Congress, Biden says 'the soul of this nation is strong'

Republicans interjected during his speech and pushed back in their own.

Last Updated: February 8, 2023, 10:39 AM EST

President Joe Biden on Tuesday night delivered his second State of the Union address in a pivotal moment as he laid out not only his accomplishments and agenda but made the case for his leadership ahead of an expected announcement on running for reelection.

Unlike his first two years in office, Republicans now control the House of Representatives and Speaker Kevin McCarthy, sitting behind the president for the first time, has threatened to block Biden's agenda.

Partners at FiveThirtyEight provided analysis in the blog below before, during and after Biden's speech.

Feb 07, 2023, 8:49 PM EST

Ciscomani, giving Republicans' Spanish rebuttal, will say: 'Our best days lie ahead'

First-term Republican Rep. Juan Ciscomani of Arizona will deliver the GOP's State of the Union rebuttal on Tuesday -- in Spanish. Excerpts from his planned remarks show that he will lay out an optimistic message for the future of the country as a member of the new House majority.

"The state of our union is strong because our people are strong. We can overcome any obstacle. Our best days lie ahead," Ciscomani will say, contending that President Biden and his administration continue to "push policies that hurt our families."

Rep.-elect Juan Ciscomani (R-AZ) delivers remarks in the House Chamber during the third day of elections for Speaker of the House at the Capitol Building on Jan. 05, 2023 in Washington, DC.
Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

The first-generation American will also nod to the fact that his own rise was due to the "American Dream." After House Speaker Kevin McCarthy announced that Ciscomani would be delivering remarks, the lawmaker said his message will be "simple and straightforward," focused on securing the southern border and strengthening the economy.

"That's why it's important to keep fighting for our country. I'm fighting for our country. And my Republican colleagues and I are committed to protect and strengthen the American Dream for all," he plans to say in his response speech.

Those remarks contrast with excerpts released from the other official Republican State of the Union rebuttal, set to be delivered by Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders, who will blast Democrats on social issues: "Every day, we are told that we must partake in their rituals, salute their flags and worship their false idols."

Feb 07, 2023, 8:35 PM EST

Biden's SOTU pitch echoes Reagan's 'stay the course'

In the post-World War II era, only three presidents have had a lower approval rating at this point in their presidency than Biden.

Two of those presidents -- Jimmy Carter and Donald Trump -- went on to lose reelection.

The third was Ronald Reagan. In 1983, he was unpopular and facing critics who said he was too old. But the next year, Reagan won reelection in the biggest landslide in the history of modern American politics, winning every state except for Minnesota, home of his Democratic opponent, Walter Mondale.

It’s no accident that Biden is echoing Reagan’s message from 40 years ago. Back then, the country was just starting to recover from high inflation and high interest rates. Reagan acknowledged the pain in his own State of the Union address and, as he launched his reelection bid, his campaign buttons urged the country to “STAY THE COURSE."

Biden’s message on Tuesday? “Finish the job.”

-ABC News Chief Washington Correspondent Jonathan Karl

Feb 07, 2023, 8:38 PM EST

Pelosi tells ABC Biden's message will be 'how we go forward'

As she made her way to the House chamber, Rep. Nancy Pelosi told ABC News that she's "thrilled" to hear what Biden has to say to Congress.

"I'm so excited about tonight. The president will talk about what he has accomplished. It'll be a message of progress and hope about how we go forward and what more needs to be done and what the path is to that," Pelosi said.

The California Democrat, who has witnessed several presidents -- Biden included -- deliver State of the Union addresses from the dais as House speaker, insisted that there was much for Biden to "brag about."

"I'm really quite thrilled," she continued. "I can't remember being so thrilled on the State of the Union, because there's so much for him to brag about, but also that he knows needs to be done."

-ABC News' Will Steakin

Rep. Nancy Pelosi arrives for President Joe Biden's State of the Union address to a joint session of Congress at the U.S. Capitol, Feb. 7, 2023, in Washington.
Patrick Semansky/AP

Feb 07, 2023, 7:55 PM EST

Congress probably won’t do most of the things Biden is requesting

Biden is going to call on Congress to do a lot in his speech -- he’ll talk about the issues he thinks are ripe for action and the policies he wants Congress to prioritize. But lawmakers probably won’t follow through on most of them.

According to an analysis of legislation passed after every State of the Union address since 1965, conducted by political scientists Donna Hoffman and Allison Howard, Congress only fully enacted 24.3% of a president’s requests, on average, and partially enacted another 13.8%.

In some years -- like 2016 and 2020 -- none of the requests were acted on. So even if Biden makes big, bold proposals for Congress, don’t expect most of them to become reality.

-FiveThirtyEight’s Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux

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