Addressing his first divided Congress, Biden says 'the soul of this nation is strong'

Biden is making the argument that his immigration policies have improved the situation at the southern border. However, Americans may not buy it. Poll after poll suggests that Biden's approval ratings are weakest on immigration. For example, ABC News/Washington Post's latest poll found that his approval/disapproval rating on the immigration situation at the border is just 28% approval compared to 59% disapproval. And a January poll from Quinnipiac University had even worse numbers for him: Only 18% approved of his handling of the situation on the Mexican border, while 68% disapproved. That was the lowest that number has ever been in Quinnipiac's polling.

-FiveThirtyEight's Nathaniel Rakich

As Biden turned to discuss policing and public safety in his address, he took a moment to welcome the parents of Tyre Nichols, the 29-year-old Black man who died last month after being assaulted by police in Memphis, Tennessee.

His mother, RowVaughn Wells, and his stepfather, Rodney Wells, received a standing ovation from those gathered in the chamber.

"What happened to Tyre in Memphis happens too often. We have to do better," Biden said. "Give law enforcement the training they need, hold them to higher standards and help them succeed in keeping everyone safe."

The president called for more resources to reduce violent crime, more community intervention programs and more investments in housing, education and job training.

"Let’s commit ourselves to make the words of Tyre’s mother come true, something good must come from this," he said.

While lawmakers in both parties said after Nichols died that they would like to pursue a compromise on policing reform, previous such efforts have failed in Congress.

Following remarks on his attempts to build out a "hollowed" middle class, Biden shifted to discussing his goal of making billionaires and corporations pay more in taxes.

"Corporations ought to do the right thing … That's why I propose that we quadruple the tax on corporate stock buybacks to encourage long-term investments instead."

"Let's finish the job and close the loopholes that allow the very wealthy to avoid paying their taxes," he said, urging Congress: "Reward work, not just wealth. Pass my proposal for a billionaire minimum tax."

House Speaker McCarthy, however, has pushed back. He said on Monday when speaking on the debt ceiling: "Defaulting on our debt is not an option but neither is a future of higher taxes."

Biden's new proposal comes after a sticking point in the Inflation Reduction Act's passage, a 1% excise tax on share buybacks that was added to the landmark bill in order to move forward.

Democrats stripped from the bill a tax break favoring wealthy hedge-fund managers called the "carried interest loophole" before its passage.

Biden may still be some ways from formally declaring his intentions about a 2024 reelection campaign, but his message on Tuesday -- he wants to "finish the job" -- certainly hints at another bid.

Yet this comes in the face of polls that have shown an unusually high percentage of Americans don't want him to run again -- including Democrats. In a new ABC News/Washington Post survey, 58% of Democrats said they wanted the party to nominate someone other than Biden, a finding echoed by a recent AP/NORC survey, too. Now, it's not unheard of for the public to prefer that a president not run again. For instance, majorities told pollsters at different points in 1982 and 1983 that they didn't want Ronald Reagan, another older president, to run again. But in those polls, a majority of Republicans still wanted four more years of Reagan, in contrast to what Democrats are saying in polls about Biden.

However, none of this means Biden will be an underdog in the 2024 Democratic primary. Fact is, elected presidents rarely face serious opposition for renomination. Importantly, Biden has a solid approval rating among Democrats -- around 80% for better in most polls -- so while many Democrats express skepticism toward another Biden run, most also don't mind how he's governing the country. This complicates any would-be challenger justifying a campaign against Biden.

Moreover, the potential Democratic candidates polling best against Biden are in his administration -- Vice President Kamala Harris and Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg -- making them unlikely to run against him. Although we can't discount someone from the left taking on Biden, the leftward threat posed by Vermont independent Sen. Bernie Sanders faded when he encouraged the party to coalesce around Biden ahead of Super Tuesday in 2020 -- before Biden was the clear leader of his party. Barring a major collapse in Biden's standing, then, a serious primary challenge appears unlikely.

-FiveThirtyEight's Geoffrey Skelley