President Joe Biden on Tuesday night delivered his second State of the Union address in a pivotal moment as he laid out not only his accomplishments and agenda but made the case for his leadership ahead of an expected announcement on running for reelection.
Unlike his first two years in office, Republicans now control the House of Representatives and Speaker Kevin McCarthy, sitting behind the president for the first time, has threatened to block Biden's agenda.
Partners at FiveThirtyEight provided analysis in the blog below before, during and after Biden's speech.
What Biden said he would veto if it comes to his desk
President Biden drew several red lines as he addressed the new Republican majority in the House.
On health care, Biden said if anyone tried to "do anything to raise the cost of prescription drugs" -- like repeal the Inflation Reduction Act provisions -- he would veto it. He said the same if lawmakers passed a national abortion ban, prompting cheers from Democrats.
Biden also delivered a firm stance on Social Security and Medicare, calling them a "lifeline for millions" that he won't let be taken away, which leading Republicans have echoed.
Feb 07, 2023, 10:53 PM EST
Some presidents say a lot more than others during the State of the Union
Biden's remarks on Tuesday totaled roughly 7,300 words. That's on the high side historically, which led to a lengthy speech: Since Lyndon Johnson's first evening national address in 1965, the average word count is around 5,500 words. Now, those totals have varied quite a bit, ranging from Jimmy Carter's laconic 3,300 words in 1979 to Bill Clinton's loquacious 9,200 words in 1995. For his part, Biden's speech is slightly shorter than his first national address in 2021 (8,000 words) and last year's State of the Union (7,700).
Of course, different people speak at different rates, so what takes one person five minutes to say might take another eight. Not to mention, applause breaks have become commonplace. For his part, Biden's two previous speeches to Congress have each lasted a touch over an hour, and he came in a little above that mark again this evening. By comparison, Donald Trump's speeches contained somewhat fewer words than Biden's, ranging from 5,000 to 6,200 words. But Trump spoke for around one hour and 20 minutes in three of his four national addresses. Still, no one can rival the master of stemwinders: Clinton's final State of the Union, in 2000, lasted nearly one and a half hours.
-FiveThirtyEight's Geoffrey Skelley
President Joe Biden delivers the State of the Union address in Washington, Feb. 7, 2023.
Jacquelyn Martin/POOL/AFP via Getty Images
Feb 07, 2023, 10:17 PM EST
State of the Union viewership is driven by partisanship
Biden might like to imagine that his State of the Union address is not only a chance to lay out his agenda for the country but also an opportunity to change a few Republican minds.
However, odds are that Biden’s audience mostly consists of people who already agree with him about most things: Democrats.
In his first two addresses to joint sessions of Congress in 2021 and 2022 (the first technically wasn’t a State of the Union), polls found that around half of the viewership identified as Democrats, while around one-fifth to one-quarter identified as Republicans.
There isn’t anything unusual about this sort of partisan gap, though: Historically, people who identify with the president’s party are more likely to watch the State of the Union, based on polling since Bill Clinton’s presidency.
In other words, the State of the Union can sometimes verge on a pep rally, with the president working to animate his supporters in the room and at home with applause lines. Now, Biden also made bipartisan and even nonpartisan overtures in an effort to appeal across and beyond party lines. But as the trend in the chart above suggests, far fewer Republicans are likely watching his speech than Democrats.
-FiveThirtyEight’s Geoffrey Skelley
Feb 07, 2023, 10:19 PM EST
The Supreme Court’s approval ratings are historically low
Biden called on Congress to "restore the right that was taken away in Roe v. Wade," referring to nationwide abortion access, to a huge round of applause from Democrats. The Supreme Court is usually the most popular branch of government. But over the past few years -- particularly since the high court overruled Roe last summer -- Americans' views have diverged sharply by party. A poll conducted last August found that perspectives on the Supreme Court were historically polarized, with a gaping 45-point gap between Republicans and Democrats.
The sharp divide was driven by a nosedive in Democrats' views of the court. In the poll, only 28% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents had a favorable view of the court in August, down nearly 40 points from 2020. The shift is undoubtedly related to the Supreme Court's right turn since the fall of 2020, when Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg died and was replaced by Amy Coney Barrett, who was the third justice to be appointed by former President Donald Trump. Barrett ended up being a critical vote in the case that overruled Roe.
