If, on the other hand, Hillary Clinton looks poised to win the Democratic nomination, the odds that Bloomberg will run drop to close to zero, the friend said.
Bloomberg has considered running as an independent before -- in fact, he took a look at it a few months ago -- but he has previously concluded the odds were stacked too high against an independent candidate. But he believes the prospects of a general election pitting Trump or Cruz against Sanders may present an historic opportunity for an independent to actually win, the confidant said. It would mean, essentially, that both parties have nominated candidates that are so extreme that an independent can break through.
It’s possible that neither the Republican nor Democratic primaries will be clear by Super Tuesday, but Bloomberg believes he must decide by the first week in March to be able to get on the ballot in all 50 states, the confidant said.