How Nebraska’s 'blue dot' could prove pivotal in the Electoral College

Amid an increasingly tight election between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump in several key swing states, Nebraska, and more specifically, its 2nd Congressional District, has taken on an outsize role in this year's presidential election.

Because Nebraska currently awards three of its five Electoral College votes based on the results in each of its three congressional districts, the so-called "blue dot," as the 2nd district has come to be known, could be critical to either campaign's path to 270 electoral votes.

The district is home to Omaha, Nebraska's largest city, and President Joe Biden became only the second Democratic presidential candidate in state history to pick up the district's sole elector in 2020.

And while Biden won the Electoral College handily last election, Democrats are bracing for a number of scenarios this year that could see a much slimmer electoral margin for Harris -- turning Omaha and the 2nd district into a must-win.

A 'blue dot' in a sea of red

"I think all of you know this, this thing is going to be close," Harris' running mate Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz told a crowd of supporters in Papillion, Nebraska -- a suburb of Omaha -- last week, predicting that the so-called "blue wall" states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin would hold for Harris.

"But you do the math -- Wisconsin, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, the rest of the states: 269. One dot makes a difference," he said, referring to the scenario in which Harris wins the blue wall states but loses Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina. A victory in Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District, in that case, would deliver her the prized 270th electoral vote.

"Look, blue dot, you're inspiring the rest of the country," Walz said.

While Trump won the district by two points in 2016, Biden subsequently beat Trump by more than six points in 2020. Harris has, so far, seemed to maintain the edge that Biden established, with the latest New York Times/Siena College poll showing her up by 12 points in the district, while statewide, Trump has maintained a commanding lead.

Despite Harris' lead there, Trump's campaign has not neglected the potential importance of the second district's single electoral vote. Egged on by the former president and his allies, state Republicans attempted to push through an eleventh-hour law that would have seen Nebraska abandon the split vote system that it has used since 1991.

While the Republican-dominated state senate failed to obtain a filibuster-proof majority supporting the move to a winner-take-all system before adjourning for the year in April, national Republicans revamped the effort in September, lobbying Republican Gov. Jim Pillen to call lawmakers back for a special legislative session to make the change.

That second last-ditch attempt saw South Carolina GOP Sen. Lindsey Graham descend on the state's capital to lobby Pillen and state legislators to make the change while all five members of Nebraska's federal delegation penned a letter backing the move.

But state senators backing the bill remained shy of a filibuster-proof majority, unable to convince a small group of Republican holdouts to join their cause. Pillen, who initially publicly pushed the legislature to make the change back in April, ultimately refused to call a special session as a result. The effort has since died down again.

"Under limited circumstances, it could be a very important vote," Trump conceded last week on Fox News radio.

"They had a little bit of a rogue senator out there [who] decided that he wanted to get a little free publicity, so he didn't get that done," he told host Brian Kilmeade, referring to the botched attempt to install a winner-take-all system. "But that's okay … I would love to get that vote, and to the people of Omaha, please be nice to me."

An unexpectedly close US Senate race

Nebraska also boasts a surprisingly competitive U.S. Senate race in what should have been a relatively safe incumbent re-election for Republican Sen. Deborah Fischer. There's no Democrat in the race, technically, as Fischer is fending off a fierce challenge from independent Senate candidate Dan Osborn, a union leader. But with the control of the U.S. Senate in Washington in the balance, Democrats see an opportunity to eat into Republican's path to the majority.

That Senate race in Nebraska is one of the closest in the country, according to 538's polling average.

Over the course of the campaign, Osborn has stressed that he is a true independent, maintaining he has no plans to caucus with either party despite the potential conflict that could have with committee assignments.

Though in the last few days of the race messaging from outside groups has shook up that perception. In a text sent by Dunn's Democracy Defenders, a super PAC founded by former U.S. Capitol Police officer Harry Dunn, the PAC claimed "The Nebraska Senate race is now the closest in the country … It's our best pick up opportunity. Dan is an independent who will caucus with the Democrats."

Screenshots circulating on social media have cut off part of the text that includes a link to a Dunn's Democracy Defenders webpage, according to Politico, and some posts – including one from National Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee executive director Jason Thielman -- claim the text is a fundraising text from Osborn.

ABC News has reviewed the full screenshot showing the text is signed as "DDD," which links the message to the PAC, not Osborn's team.

Super PACs cannot legally coordinate with campaigns, and a campaign finance filing shows independent expenditures from the PAC supporting Osborn through text messages.

Osborn's opponent, Republican candidate Deb Fischer, wrote on X on Wednesday, "For months, Dan Osborn denied that he was a Democrat in disguise. But now the truth is out -- according to a fundraising message last night, Dan Osborn WILL caucus with the Democrats if he's elected to the Senate. He's been lying to Nebraskans, many of whom have already voted -- a major breach of public trust."

But Osborn has dug deep into his promise.

"Political people have been lying about me since day one, trying to use me to advance their own agenda. They just can't seem to get their head around the fact that I am a lifelong Independent. I don't take orders from party bosses, especially Chuck Schumer. As I've said, I will not caucus with the Democrats," Osborn said in a statement to ABC Thursday, after a Democratic super PAC claimed he would join their ranks in Congress if he won.

ABC News' Oren Oppenheim contributed to this report.