The Note: Balanced support shows Harris’ potential staying power

New poll highlights Sen. Kamala Harris success on campaign trail.

The TAKE with Rick Klein

Sen. Kamala Harris has crashed the top tier of 2020 candidates. And there's fresh evidence in post-debate polling that she's likely there to stay.

A new ABC News/Washington Post poll out Wednesday shows Harris tied with Sen. Elizabeth Warren for third in the Democratic presidential race. Both stand at 11% support, behind former Vice President Joe Biden's 29% and Sen. Bernie Sanders' 23%.

Inside the numbers, Harris' support among black voters is the same as her overall standing. Strikingly, she demonstrates balanced support across education levels, age and ideology -- suggesting that there's room for her to grow across the board.

Harris draws 20% support among Democrats who said they watched last week's debate; she stands at only 5% for those who say they didn't watch. Whether the jabs continue or not, the visibility will: Biden and Harris are both back in Iowa on Wednesday and through the Fourth of July.

A big source of Biden's strength is that 45% of Democrats see him as the best shot to defeat President Donald Trump, regardless of whom they prefer as the nominee.

Harris' rise is predicated on the fact that many Democrats are ready to be persuaded.

The RUNDOWN with MaryAlice Parks

With 11 primary debates to go, some voter fatigue could easily set in.

But this week's ABC News/Washington Post poll found that 72% of Democratic-leaning voters said they're certain they will vote in their state's primary or caucus. That's a sign -- for now -- of big enthusiasm. It's up from 56% in November 2015, when the question was first asked in the last cycle.

Those in favor of a crowded and competitive primary have long argued that more candidates help drive engagement, which is good for a party long term.

The results this go-around do in fact have more in common with numbers from November 2007, the last race on the Democratic side with more than a few candidates.

If people do turn out for the Democratic primaries at high rates, that bodes well for candidates who are already tracking with young voters and, particularly, with young voters of color, who are typically underrepresented on Election Day.

The TIP with Sasha Pezenik

Amid the fallout from John Hickenlooper's mounting campaign exodus, what's stayed stagnant may be the very thing driving them out of there: cash flow.

A source familiar with the situation tells ABC News that fundraising has dramatically slowed -- Hickenlooper's team raised little more than $1 million in the second quarter, which just closed. Moreover, the campaign only has about 13,000 donors, just 10% of the way to the requisite 130,000 needed to qualify for the fall debate.

As the clock ticks down, so do options for a path forward. A source close to the Hickenlooper campaign told ABC News that when faced with the reality of "running out of runway," the team sat down with the former Colorado governor to think about next steps. Despite that, he "really believes he can pull this thing off, and wants to surround himself with people who really believed in him."

But many of his staffers' next steps could be their own.

THE PLAYLIST

ABC News' "Start Here" podcast. Wednesday morning's episode features ABC News Political Director Rick Klein, who has details from the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll on the 2020 presidential race. Then ABC News' Katherine Faulders runs down the controversy surrounding President Donald Trump's July Fourth celebration in Washington. http://apple.co/2HPocUL

ABC News' "Powerhouse Politics" podcast. Presidential candidate and Washington Gov. Jay Inslee joins Klein and Deputy Political Director MaryAlice Parks to discuss the 2020 campaign trail and his plans moving forward after the first Democratic debates. https://bit.ly/2FA0CIm

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW TODAY -- AND THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND

  • President Donald Trump has lunch with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo at the White House at 12:45 p.m.
  • Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., hosts a community conversation in Reno, Nevada, on Wednesday. On Friday, the senator will host a town hall at the University of Houston, her alma mater.
  • Former Vice President Joe Biden and Dr. Jill Biden host a community event in Waterloo, Iowa, on Wednesday. On Saturday and Sunday, Biden meets with voters in Sumter, Orangeburg and Charleston, South Carolina.
  • Former Rep. Beto O'Rourke, D-Texas, will tour veterans' homes and attend the Clear Lake Carnival in Iowa on Wednesday. On Thursday, he attends Fourth of July parades in Independence, Williams and Des Moines, Iowa.
  • Rep. Tim Ryan, D-Ohio, hosts two education roundtables and tours the UNI Techworks in Iowa on Wednesday.
  • Sen. Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., hosts meet-and-greet events across Iowa on Wednesday. On Thursday, she attends Fourth of July parades in Amherst and Merrimack, New Hampshire. On Saturday and Sunday, she will host meet and greets in Lancaster and Conway, New Hampshire.
  • Sen. Kamala Harris, D-Calif., attends a Fourth of July summer picnic and a women's town hall in Iowa on Wednesday. On Thursday, the senator attends a community barbecue in Council Bluffs, Iowa. She also hosts a town hall in Sioux City, Iowa on Friday. On Sunday, she heads to South Carolina to host a meet and greet and town hall.
  • Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, D-N.Y., hosts meet-and-greets events across New Hampshire on Wednesday. On Thursday, the senator participates in two high school Fourth of July parades in Amherst and Laconia, New Hampshire. She will also participate in community service at the Claremont Soup Kitchen in Claremont, New Hampshire, on Saturday. On Sunday, she attends a town hall in Portsmouth.
  • Rep. Eric Swalwell, D-Calif., attends meet-and-greet events across New Hampshire on Wednesday.
  • Former Rep. John Delaney, D-Md., hosts a health care round table in Concord, New Hampshire, and a climate action town hall in Durham on Wednesday. On Thursday, the former congressman will attend barbecues and parades in New Hampshire.
  • Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., hosts an immigration roundtable and attends the West Des Moines Independence Day Parade in Iowa on Wednesday. He then attends four Independence Day parades in Iowa on Thursday.
  • South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg makes a policy announcement at a town hall in Sioux City, Iowa, on Wednesday. The mayor joins a parade in Storm Lake, Iowa and a barbecue in Carroll, Iowa, on Thursday.
  • Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, D-Hawaii, attends the July Fourth parade in Amherst, New Hampshire, on Thursday. On Friday, she hosts meet and greets and on Saturday, the congresswoman attends the Franconia Old Home Day parade in New Hampshire.
  • Independence Day celebrations in Washington will begin on Thursday with a National Independence Day Parade, followed in the evening with Trump's Salute to America address at the Lincoln Memorial and then A Capitol Fourth Concert and Fireworks Display.
  • Harris, Booker, Warren and O'Rourke will speak at and participate in a question-and-answer session with the Rev. Al Sharpton at the 2019 Essence Festival in New Orleans on Saturday. Buttigieg is expected to speak there on Sunday.
  • Biden, former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julian Castro, Washington Gov. Jay Inslee, Klobuchar, O'Rourke, Sanders and Warren will speak at the National Education Association #StrongPublicSchools Presidential Forum in Houston on Friday.
  • Former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper will host a meet-and-greet event in Dallas on Sunday.
  • Download the ABC News app and select "The Note" as an item of interest to receive the sharpest political analysis every weekday.

    The Note is a daily ABC News feature that highlights key political moments of the day ahead. The Note will return on Monday, after the Fourth of July holiday weekend.