The Note: Debate Expectations: Democratic Edition

— -- NOTABLES

--5 CANDIDATES, 5 THINGS THEY NEED TO PROVE AT THE FIRST DEMOCRATIC DEBATE: We're finally here -- just hours away from the first Democratic presidential debate and the pressure is on, ABC's MARYALICE PARKS and LIZ KREUTZ note. Five candidates are meeting tonight under the bright lights of the Las Vegas strip, but it's up to them to make sure the night isn't lackluster. Democrats need to show they can bring as much excitement, energy, and passion to the race as Republicans. For that to happen, the three candidates on stage not named Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders desperately need to boost their name recognition and generate some headlines. For Clinton and Sanders, "no news" might be "good news" come Wednesday morning. Here's a look at what each candidate needs to prove tonight: http://abcn.ws/1QnbbeC

--CLINTON SMOKES SANDERS AMONG DEMOCRATS, AMONG INDEPENDENTS, THE TABLE TURNS: Hillary Clinton heads into the first Democratic presidential debate with a slight gain in her basic popularity among all adults and a strong advantage over Bernie Sanders within the Democratic Party, ABC's GARY LANGER and GREGORY HOLYK note. But she's weaker among independents and vastly unpopular among Republicans. Among all adults, 47 percent see Clinton favorably in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll, vs. 49 percent unfavorably. http://abcn.ws/1L97DLI

--SANDERS ALSO GETS AN EVEN SPLIT OVERALL: 35-35 percent favorable-unfavorable, with three in 10 yet to form an opinion of him. There's a crucial distinction, however, among Democrats: They see Clinton favorably by 79-17 percent, but Sanders just by 47-24 percent. Sanders' rating is +23 points net positive within the party, vs. Clinton's +62 points. In the wings, meantime, is Joe Biden, with a 45-40 percent favorability rating overall, and 72-17 percent among Democrats, rivaling Clinton in their party. http://abcn.ws/1L97DLI

--DRAFT BIDEN RELEASES REPLACEMENT TV AD: Draft Biden, the super-PAC urging Joe Biden to run for president, released a new ad today that will run before tonight's first Democratic debate, which the vice president is not scheduled to attend. The ad, titled "Never Quit," replaces the emotional spot featuring the story of Biden's personal experience with tragedy after the death of his first wife, Neilia, and 1-year-old daughter Naomi in a 1972 car crash, ABC's ARLETTE SAENZ notes. That ad was released last week and slated to air before the Democratic debate. But Draft Biden pulled the ad after an aide to the vice president expressed Biden's desire for the ad not to run, saying it tread on "sacred ground." http://abcn.ws/1VPDclY

--ANALYSIS -- ABC's RICK KLEIN: Hillary Clinton will be center stage. But that doesn't mean the spotlight can't find someone else. Democrats are coming in to their first debate of the election cycle with not one but two leading candidates, both with significant things to prove. In the expectation for combat that may not materialize, consider that it's Bernie Sanders who is trailing in the race nationally; Sanders who will have to defend base-critical views on guns and immigration; Sanders who will see his temperament and agility tested like it hasn't been before, with this kind of audience watching. It's also plausible strategy for a Martin O'Malley or a Jim Webb to target Sanders more than Clinton, based on the theory that the race will come down to Hillary vs. an anti-Hillary, and one of those slots is already taken for good. And from the other perspective, if Sanders' goal is to win the nomination, not simply make the considerable statement he's already made, he needs some fresh dynamics to come into play. He won't get many better chances to put them there.

IN THE NOTE'S INBOX -- 'WARREN WING' PUSHES PROGRESSIVE ISSUES AHEAD OF TONIGHT. Three progressive organizations representing 10 million people have sent a letter to the top three Democratic presidential campaigns, urging them to be proactive about four specific issues during tonight's debate, ABC's RYAN STRUYK notes. The letters, from the "Warren Wing" of the Democratic Party -- named after progressive Sen. Elizabeth Warren -- focus on debt-free college, expanding Social Security, Wall Street accountability and the Black Lives Matter movement. READ THE LETTERS: http://bit.ly/1hBhbEF These issues have been rapidly gaining traction in the mainstream of the Democratic Party over the last few years. "Our expectation is that there won't be disagreement in the debate about the direction we need to go," Adam Green, co-founder of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, tells ABC News. "The debate is about how to get there." Green says he hopes that Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders and Martin O'Malley will avoid focusing on fleeting news-of-the-day topics, but instead they will give specific, detailed plans on issues important to the "Warren Wing."

TODAY ON THE TRAIL with ABC's SHUSHANNAH WALSHE: Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, Martin O'Malley, Jim Webb, and Lincoln Chafee will go head to head tonight at CNN's face off in Las Vegas. It all kicks off at 8:30pm ET. There is also the question of Joe Biden. He's at the White House all day today, but it doesn't look like he has left Wilmington yet. He will attend the President's daily briefing in the Oval Office at 11:00 a.m. ET and attend meetings in the White House in the afternoon. Bill Clinton is in Las Vegas with his wife, but has no plans to attend the debate, per his staff. Their daughter Chelsea is not in Vegas and instead continues her book tour with a stop in New Orleans this evening. All eyes may be on Sin City, but the Republicans are also staying busy today keeping those early states packed with candidates. Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, John Kasich, and Lindsey Graham are all in the Granite State. Much of the rest of the Republican field is in Iowa. Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, Mike Huckabee, and Bobby Jindal are all in the Hawkeye State.

JEB BUSH TO UNVEIL HEALTH CARE PLAN. Republican presidential candidate Jeb Bush will unveil his healthcare policy plan in Manchester, NH today, ABC's CANDACE SMITH reports. It is the fifth policy proposal his campaign has released, others including tax reform and foreign policy. His plan would repeal the Affordable Care Act and replace it with a state-driven process that is innovation-driven, that his campaign says will drive down costs. He'd provide a tax credit to help people buy insurance that would protect them from "high-cost medical events" and would cap the tax break from employer-sponsored insurance in an attempt to lower insurance premiums. He would also increase contribution limits for Health Savings Accounts to help with out-of-pocket costs. His plan harkens to what he did as governor of Florida by privatizing the system, giving states more control over certain components, like Medicaid. "ObamaCare, a government takeover of more than one-sixth of the American economy, epitomizes why Americans are fed up with Washington. Jeb believes we must repeal Obamacare and offer a conservative vision and plan of health care for the future," said spokeswoman Allie Brandenburger.

THE BUZZ

with ABC's VERONICA STRACQUALURSI and PAOLA CHAVEZ

HILLARY CLINTON TAKES ON TRUMP IN SHADOW OF HIS LAS VEGAS HOTEL. On the eve of the first Democratic debate, Hillary Clinton showed up unannounced to a union protest in the shadow of Donald Trump's Las Vegas building, telling the real estate mogul to "represent all of the people of the United States." She made brief remarks to roughly 500 workers who were calling on Trump to allow them to unionize at the Trump International Hotel Las Vegas, according to ABC's LIZ KREUTZ. "If you are going to run for president, then represent all of the people of the United States," she said. "I wanted to come by to lend my voice to all yours and I wish you well in these efforts." With the Trump hotel in the backdrop behind her, Clinton lauded their efforts and said they were there to send a message to Trump. http://abcn.ws/1jtAHUG

NOTED: CLINTON'S 10 MOST MEMORABLE DEBATE MOMENTS OF ALL TIME. For the first time in seven years, Hillary Clinton will appear on a presidential primary debate stage to duke it out with her fellow Democratic hopefuls. ABC'S MISHA WEE takes a look back at Clinton's most memorable debate moments of the 2008 presidential campaign. http://abcn.ws/1N99QYd

BILL CLINTON IN LAS VEGAS BUT NOT ATTENDING THE DEMOCRATIC DEBATE. Bill Clinton may be staying in Las Vegas, but he will not be in the audience watching his wife debate tonight, a spokesperson for the former president confirmed to ABC News. According to the representative, "There are currently no plans for him to be at the debate. The political power couple made their trip to "Sin City" just one day after celebrating their 40th wedding anniversary, ABC's MATTHEW CLAIBORNE notes. Chelsea Clinton will also be absent. She is currently on a book tour for her first book, "It's Your World," a New York Times bestseller with an evening stop in New Orleans on the night of the debate. http://abcn.ws/1jlhLbs

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM BERNIE SANDERS AT TUESDAY'S DEMOCRATIC DEBATE. Bernie Sanders may be the outsider in the Democratic nomination race, but that doesn't mean he's a stranger to the debate stage. Sanders has run for elected office more than a dozen times and is a veteran debater. As all eyes turn to tonight's first Democratic debate of the 2016 campaign, the big question is now: How will Sanders' fiery rhetoric and pointed platform play on the national stage? ABC'S RYAN STRUYK and MARYALICE PARKS have more. http://abcn.ws/1LEK3Uk

DEBATE PODIUM AWAITS JOE BIDEN, WITH OR WITHOUT HIM. Joe Biden does not plan on participating in the first Democratic presidential debate tonight, but the invitation remains open to the vice president should he make a last-minute decision to jump in the race. ABC'S JORDYN PHELPS reports the debate hosts have even gone so far as to set aside an extra podium for the VP. While all indications are that the reserved podium will go unused, the political world is watching in anticipation as the vice president continues a debate of his own, within the privacy of his Delaware home, in deliberating whether to mount a White House bid. http://abcn.ws/1NBWMxv

DNC VICE CHAIRWOMAN SAYS SHE WAS DISINVITED FROM DEBATE. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard's office tells ABC News the Hawaii Democrat was disinvited from the first Democratic debate by the DNC, as first reported by The New York Times. Rep. Gabbard is a DNC vice chairwoman and a two-term member of Congress from Hawaii's second district. She was disinvited from the debate after calling for more than the six sanctioned debates, according to ABC's BENJAMIN SIEGEL and SHUSHANNAH WALSHE. "The Democratic Party is a big tent Party and we embrace the diversity of opinions and ideas that come from our members. That said, the focus of the debate in Nevada as well as the other debates and forums in the coming weeks should be on the candidates who will take the stage, and their vision to move America forward," the DNC wrote in a statement provided to ABC News. "All that was asked of Ms. Gabbard's staff was to prioritize our candidates and this important opportunity they have to introduce themselves to the American people."

PAUL RYAN ALREADY HAS HIS DREAM JOB. There are lots of reasons Rep. Paul Ryan doesn't want to run for House speaker, including the fact that he already has his dream job. He presides over the House Ways and Means Committee, the top tax-writing committee in the U.S. House -- a perfect fit for the policy wonk who is just at home talking about repatriated tax breaks as he is his beloved Green Bay Packers. ABC'S ALI WEINBERG also notes he acknowledged at a July breakfast discussion in Washington D.C., the chairmanship dovetails with both his political and personal lives right now. http://abcn.ws/1LqSyGW

WHO'S TWEETING?

@realDonaldTrump: At the request of many, and even though I expect it to be a very boring two hours, I will be covering the Democrat Debate live on twitter!

@adamnagourney: This analysis of how Bernie Sanders works up a crowd is state-of-the-journalistic-art great. http://nyti.ms/1jZggzH

@politicoalex: missed this, but Boone Pickens - longtime bush supporter who funded swift boat vets - now looking at other 2016ers http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/t-boone-pickens-jeb-bushs-billionaire-backer-bets-ben-carson-n442046 ...

@ron_fournier: @HillaryClinton has got to be thinking about a staff shakeup after this story drip-dropped on #DemDebate day. http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/10/hillary-clinton-2016-emails-213241 ...

@ThePlumLineGS: Joe Biden isn't running for president. @dandrezner makes the case: https://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2015/10/13/joe-biden-isnt-running-for-president/ ...