The Note: GOP Debate Expectations
— -- NOTABLES
EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT DEBATE NIGHT. The anticipation is high and the stakes are even higher. That's the buzz surrounding the first presidential primary debate of the 2016 election cycle today, where the current top 10 Republican presidential candidates will gather in Cleveland to vie for a piece of the spotlight in an overcrowded field. Fox News unveiled the participants on Tuesday, and we now know the details about what exactly is going to happen when the clock strikes 9 p.m. tonight. ABC'S RYAN STRUYK highlights everything you need to know. http://abcn.ws/1KQWWQd
--THE RULES: Each candidate will have one minute to respond to a question and 30 seconds to give rebuttals. Bret Baier, Megyn Kelly and Chris Wallace from Fox News will tag team moderating the ten-person GOP presidential field. Fox News has also said that they will try to give all 10 candidates equal time to talk on the stage, which would equal roughly 10 minutes per candidate. Wallace pointed to his binder of debate questions in an interview with the Washington Post, saying, "I've got some doozies in there." http://abcn.ws/1KQWWQd
--PACKING THE ARENA: In just under a year, the Republican Party will crown their presidential nominee in the Quicken Loans arena in Cleveland. But tonight, the home to the NBA's Cleveland Cavaliers will be home to a different kind of competition. Rick Gorka from the Ohio Republican Party says that there will be about 5,000 people in the area to watch the debate -- the largest crowd in debate history, he says. Gorka says the party got more than 7,000 requests for tickets. "It would have been harder to get tickets to this debate than to the NBA Finals," he said. http://abcn.ws/1KQWWQd
--ANALYSIS -- ABC's RICK KLEIN: "The way you kill a god," one adviser to a GOP candidate tells ABC News, "is to stop worshipping him." That piece of advice, in the context of the man who will be in the middle of it, might sound better the morning of than the morning after Thursday night's first Republican 2016 debate. Divine status notwithstanding, there is no ignoring Donald Trump -- frontrunner, wild card, and the reason for the unprecedented hype and anticipation. The Trump problem -- or among the Trump problems -- is that there are two competing schools of thought among those advising the candidates, each arguing for exactly different strategies. One says that it's time to press and scrutinize him, and that the candidate or candidates who play the anti-Trump cards strongest will be remembered and rewarded for that. The other says that Trump is likely to collapse courtesy of his own mouth, and that other candidates should be focused on their own games without contributing to the Trump circus, or giving him any more publicity. The fact that the two candidates who've been harshest toward Trump won't even be at the main debate -- Rick Perry and Lindsey Graham -- could make for fewer fireworks surrounding the Donald. But it's impossible to imagine headlines Friday morning that don't focus on Trump. For his rivals, the question becomes whether they want to be part of them, or content with being sidebars.
--GOP DEBATE BINGO. Make watching the 2016 GOP presidential debate more fun by playing along at home. PLAY: http://abcn.ws/1MPw7LZ
WHAT WE'RE WATCHING
--IJ REVIEW ON THE CANDIDATES' PRE-DEBATE RITUALS. "In the latest from our viral video team, IJ.com traveled to New Hampshire and Ohio to peel back the curtain on how the candidates are preparing for the debate tonight." https://goo.gl/yYGZrb
THE MOST AWKWARD POLITICAL DEBATE MOMENTS. Get ready for tonight's GOP debate with a tour through 10 of the most awkward moments in presidential and vice presidential debate history. http://abcn.ws/1IIgVKf
10 CANDIDATES, 10 THINGS THEY NEED TO PROVE AT THE FIRST DEBATE. They are ready to rumble. The first Republican presidential debate is just hours away and everyone on stage has their work cut out for them. ABC's RYAN STRUYK, INES DE LA CUETARA, ADAM DESIDERIO, JOHN SANTUCCI, KATHERINE FAULDERS, BEN GITTLESON, JORDYN PHELPS, CANDACE SMITH and JESSICA HOPPER break down what each candidate needs to prove on Thursday night: http://abcn.ws/1KSQZCA
--JEB BUSH: COULD THE SAFE APPROACH BACKFIRE? Bush is not about saying "cute things," a longtime adviser told ABC News, predicting he would give a solid debate performance. But given the company he will be keeping on the debate stage (he will be positioned right next to Donald Trump) Bush risks coming across as a plain vanilla candidate. The key for him will be to prove he can be the measured alternative to the louder voices on the stage without simply being forgettable.
--BEN CARSON: NICE TO MEET YOU. Carson's main focus on the debate stage will be to introduce himself to those who may not know who he is. "We think that about 50 percent of the people that will be watching have never heard of him, don't know who he is," press secretary Deana Bass told ABC News. "So it's also important for him to first of all introduce himself to millions of Americans who will see him for the first time."
--CHRIS CHRISTIE: COMEBACK KID. After barely claiming one of the last podiums for the first debate, Christie will need to prove that he is still a viable contender for the nomination. The New Jersey governor was once considered a major player for his combative talk and he'll need to show that he still has that blunt-style magic.
--TED CRUZ: WATCHING THE CLOCK. Cruz knows how to talk -- and keep talking -- famously taking the Senate floor for 21 hours to filibuster Obamacare. The Texas Senator will have to prove that he can make his point concisely and effectively. Still, Cruz is no stranger to the stage: He was a champion debater at Princeton and later Harvard Law School.
--MIKE HUCKABEE: BROADEN THE BASE. Huckabee, who won the 2008 Iowa caucuses largely boosted by evangelical Christian voters, hopes to regain much of that support and distinguish himself from several other candidates boasting similar Christian conservative credentials. He also needs to broaden his focus beyond his white evangelical base.
--JOHN KASICH: WELCOME TO THE BIG LEAGUES. After Kasich barely scraped by for the tenth podium in the first debate, the newcomer needs to prove he can play hardball with the other candidates who have been in the race much longer. The Ohio governor, who will be on his home turf tonight, needs to use the debate to capitalize on his climbing polling numbers and heighten his name recognition to earn a permanent place in the middle tier.
--RAND PAUL: GET BACK ON THE MAP. The libertarian Senator from Kentucky has one thing to prove: that he's still alive and kicking. Just a few months ago, Rand Paul had been one of the GOP's rising stars, with passionate followers and a unique brand. But he's been missing from the headlines since the onset of the campaign. He'll be trying to win them back by highlighting his outsider brand and pointing to his unique positions on issues that will distinguish him from the field.
--MARCO RUBIO: THE STAY FRESH STRATEGY. As one of the most talented communicators in the GOP field, tonight could be Rubio's moment to shine. The Florida senator's presidential bid has been all about establishing himself as the party's fresh face, and at the debate, be on the lookout for language from him that appeals to younger voters. Over the past few months, Rubio has also been reluctant to criticize fellow Republicans, but this is a debate, after all, and he will also need to prove he can throw a punch.
--DONALD TRUMP: THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS. Trump is sitting atop the national polls and tonight, he will be standing at the center of the debate stage. The moderators will undoubtedly press the bombastic business mogul to go deeper on policy issues than he ever has before. On the campaign trail and in interviews, Trump insists he knows exactly how to deal with everything from immigration issues to the fight against ISIS, but so far, he has provided little in the way of specifics. The debate will test whether he can back up his rhetoric with actual ideas.
--SCOTT WALKER: CAN HE STAY ABOVE THE FRAY? As a top-tier presidential contender, Walker will be an easy target for the nine other candidates sharing the debate stage. Walker's big challenge: To stay above the fray. He typically takes a cautious approach handling hot button issues, sticking close to his talking points. But on debate stage, he will have to avoid looking evasive or overly scripted.
IN THE NOTE'S INBOX
--MARCO RUBIO INVITES SUPPORTERS TO JOIN DEBATE 'WAR ROOM.' In an e-mail to supporters this morning, Rubio campaign manager Terry Sullivan writes: "I have no doubt that Marco's going to do great -- but it's our job to help amplify his message. That's why our campaign set up an online debate war-room that will offer real-time fact checking, video highlights and commentary during the debate. Check it out: MarcoRubio.com/debate. Marco's strategy tonight is to stay positive, and talk about his vision for a New American Century."
--FORMER STAFFERS LAUNCH 2ND PRO-SANTORUM SUPER PAC: A new Super PAC has launched to back Rick Santorum's second run for president, as the runner-up for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination works to find his footing amid low fundraising totals and a crowded field, ABC's SHUSHANNAH WALSHE and BEN GITTLESON report. The Super PAC, Take America Back PAC, is the second to support Santorum and is being run by Santorum's former campaign manager Terry Allen and two other staff members who left his campaign last month to support him on their own. Their background organizing and running logistics may signal many tasks traditionally run by a campaign -- such as building grassroots support for a candidate -- could shift to this Super PAC, which unlike a campaign can raise unlimited amounts of cash. The group filed with the Federal Election Commission Tuesday.
THE BUZZ
with ABC's VERONICA STRACQUALURSI
HOW THE CANDIDATES ARE CRAMMING FOR THE BIG SHOWDOWN. An adviser tells ABC News Jeb Bush has been "doing his homework," reading press books and watching videos. His schedule the day of his debate, according to his campaign, will include a mass with his wife Columba, the gym, and "vigorous emailing." Ben Carson's spokesman says that ahead of Thursday, his wife may make his "favorite meal" -- his favorite foods are pizza and vegetarian chili. In photos, he is seen standing in front of a faux podium with advisers standing by him, sharing a laugh, according to ABC's SHUSHANNAH WALSHE and ALANA ABRAMSON. Ted Cruz told ABC News his two days cooped up in his Capitol Hill townhouse preparing for tomorrow night did not include studying episodes of "The Apprentice" for insights on his friend The Donald. Instead, Cruz said he spent many hours with a trusted circle of friends and staff discussing strategy, what messages to convey and how to break through, as well as participating in mock debates. Here's a look at more of the cram sessions. http://abcn.ws/1MbPK1w
DONALD TRUMP'S DEBATE GAME PLAN: WING IT. Candidates usually spend hours and hours preparing for a major debate -- reading up the issues, going through practice Q & A sessions or mock debates and practicing lines to use when the big moment comes. Not Donald Trump. "Trump doesn't rehearse," a senior Trump advisor said Wednesday. It's not that his political team hasn't tried. Trump's aides have prepared him memos on the issues and the expected lines of questions and potential attacks from the other candidates, but there have been no formal debate prep sessions, no mock Q & A, no practice debates, ABC's JONATHAN KARL reports. "I have no idea what to expect," a senior Trump advisor told me. "I'm just as clueless as you about what he'll do." http://abcn.ws/1IlImfP
WILL CLINTON TUNE IN? Hillary Clinton will not be watching the GOP debate tonight, according to the campaign. Clinton's communication director Jen Palmieri tweeted that Clinton will be on a plane for the first candidates' debate and then in a car for the second debate featuring the top 10 GOP candidates. Before getting on a plane, Clinton holds an event in Los Angeles 6:30 p.m. ET.
DON'T KNOW MUCH ABOUT 2016? Meet the presidential candidates in a minute. Collect all 22! http://abcn.ws/1OOf3V9
WHO'S TWEETING?
@jdistaso: #NHPrimarySource - @marcorubio staffs up in #fitn NH; #nhpolitics #WMUR http://www.wmur.com/politics/new-hampshire-primary-source-dont-count-on-a-kinder-gentler-donald-in-debate/34559910 ...
@DavidMastio: Rating GOP's pro-growth contenders: Club for Growth http://usat.ly/1SOvHKH via @usatoday
@McCormickJohn: @ScottWalker Was Target in Now-Closed Wisconsin Criminal Probe http://bloom.bg/1Mc7Qk3 via @bpolitics
@thehill: EXCLUSIVE: O'Malley accuses Dems of tilting race toward Hillary Clinton http://hill.cm/HWyuXT4
@carenbohan: For some Republicans, a Trump victory looks increasingly possible, by @jamesoliphant @FlitterOnFraud http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/08/06/us-usa-election-trump-idUSKCN0QB01F20150806 ...
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