The Note: Jeb Bush Jumps In
— -- NOTABLES
MAKING IT OFFICIAL: Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush is set to officially jump into the presidential race today after actively "exploring" a candidacy since mid-December. Bush's event will take place at Miami Dade College this afternoon. Just a few hours before Bush's big announcement, he tweeted out a video, detailing what are likely to be some of his main campaign talking points, ABC's CANDACE SMITH notes. The video begins in his home state with the former governor looking out over the skyline of Miami, then we see images of various Americans, each representing a different point: Strengthening the economy, education, immigration reform, pro-life advocacy, protecting women from domestic violence (one of his wife, Columba's passions), and military strength. "I see a great country on the verge of its greatest century and I'm ready to lead," Bush says in the video. WATCH: https://youtu.be/Vet1HHyYtZQ
POLLING NOTES: ABC's GARY LANGER provides a helpful refresher from the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll from earlier this month on Jeb Bush: Bush's support for the nomination among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents has dropped from a front-running 21 percent in March to 10 percent now, landing him in the midst of a free-for-all along with Scott Walker, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Mike Huckabee, Ted Cruz and Ben Carson. Bush has just 1 percent support from potential GOP voters who describe themselves as "very" conservative and 6 percent from evangelical white Protestants, two key groups in Republican primaries. (Evangelicals accounted for about half of GOP primary voters in 2012; strong conservatives, about a third. Just 32 percent of Americans see Bush favorably, 51 percent unfavorably - 19 points underwater. (The comparable numbers for Hillary Clinton are 45-49 percent). For all Bush's challenges, a Hillary Clinton-Bush head-to head among registered voters has tightened to 47-44 percent - more, though, because she's down than because he's up. At the same time, she leads in the expectations game; if it comes down to these two, the public by 55-39 percent thinks Clinton would win.
ANALYSIS -- ABC's RICK KLEIN: The new, new Hillary Clinton - if that's what we're getting glimpses of - is so proud of who she is that she talks about it, a lot. Her kickoff speech Saturday included a note about her being the "youngest woman president in the history of the United States." She was even more overt in her appeal to women in an interview with the Des Moines Register: "The historic nature of my candidacy is one of the merits that I hope people take into account." As for age, the woman who's now proudly noting that she's not the youngest candidate paraphrased the song "Yesterday" to describe her GOP rivals: "They believe in yesterday," she said. (Nothing says the future like The Beatles, perhaps.) The reference, to a song recorded before Marco Rubio was born, brought a Rubio campaign's rebuttal that quoted his own announcement speech: "Yesterday's over." Another rebuttal - this an unintentional one - came from Bill Clinton, when speaking with CNN's Jake Tapper about problems in cities like Baltimore: when "everybody thinks every tomorrow is going to be like yesterday, you're toast," the former president said.
FIVETHIRTYEIGHT IN THE NOTE: "Pols and Polls Say The Same Thing: Jeb Bush Is A Weak Front-Runner," by FiveThirtyEight's HARRY ENTEN: "Money isn't everything, and it certainly isn't the only thing in presidential campaigns. Still, as former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush officially enters the 2016 presidential campaign today, there's going to be a lot of talk about whether his super PAC can hit its $100 million fundraising "goal" by the end of the month. You should mostly ignore those stories; money matters, but Bush will clearly have plenty of cash. Pay more attention to whether GOP officials - governors, senators and House members, in particular - are backing Bush. Late last week, Bush unveiled a raft of endorsements from Florida pols, including 11 of the 17 Republicans in the state's U.S. House delegation. Normally, home-state endorsements are pro forma, but with a fellow Floridian, Sen. Marco Rubio, in the race, these endorsements are a bit more meaningful. http://53eig.ht/1TnvkV5
IN THE NOTE'S INBOX: A thought on Bush from long-time GOP operative, Joe Brettell: "Jeb's biggest challenge today won't be raising money, building an organization or increasing name ID - like any experienced politician, he's nailed the nuts and bolts. Instead, the greatest task facing him is telling people WHY. He has to inspire the faithful and move them to action with a reason better than familial destiny or sheer ability to do the job."
TODAY ON THE TRAIL with ABC's CHRIS GOOD: Today will be all about Jeb Bush, who is announcing his campaign at 3 pm Eastern at Miami Dade College. Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton will be in New Hampshire, where she'll headline the Manchester Democratic Party's Flag Day Dinner, among other events. Ben Carson will be in Sacramento where he'll speak to the African-American advocacy group Indivizible. The event will be hosted by Mayor Kevin Johnson, a Democrat. Rick Santorum will visit MMI Outdoor Inc. in Montgomery, Alabama. George Pataki will be in New Hampshire, where he'll do a radio interview with WTLP New Hampshire, attend a Republican Women Lilac Luncheon at the Grappone Conference Center in Concord and tour businesses in downtown Manchester. John Kasich will be in South Carolina, where he'll attend a York County GOP luncheon at Beef O'Brady's in Fort Mill and a Sun City GOP reception in Indian Land. Jim Webb will be in Iowa, where he'll visit Rippey Wind Farm in Grand Junction and deliver remarks and participate in a Q&A at a young professionals event at The Continental in Des Moines.
THE BUZZ
HILLARY CLINTON APPEARS TO BACK NANCY PELOSI OVER PRESIDENT OBAMA ON TRADE. Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton seems to think President Obama should listen to House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi when it comes to trade. During her first campaign rally in Iowa yesterday, Clinton gave her most extensive remarks yet on the Trans Pacific Partnership trade deal -- which she has so far declined to take a hard stance on -- and appears to have sided with Pelosi over the president, ABC's LIZ KREUTZ reports. Clinton still made no specific statement on her position, and continued to say she will wait to see the final proposal before deciding whether she will back it, but she mentioned Pelosi's efforts to challenge Obama's free trade deal negotiations twice. "Let me say a word about another issue," Clinton told the crowd of roughly 700 people during her rally on the Iowa State Fairgrounds in Des Moines. "There's a lot of discussion right now about the potential Trans Pacific Partnership Trade Deal, and I want to tell you what I want to be in that deal." http://abcn.ws/1G5v8zK
THE QUOTE YOU NEED TO READ: "In order to get a deal that meets these high standards, the president should listen to and work with his allies in colleagues -- starting with Nancy Pelosi -- who have expressed their concerns about the impact a weak agreement would have on our workers, to make sure we get the best, strongest deal possible," she said. "And if we don't get it," Clinton continued, "There should be no deal." http://abcn.ws/1G5v8zK
CLINTON SENIOR ADVISER ON THE NEXT PHASE OF THE CAMPAIGN. Senior Adviser Joel Benenson appeared on ABC's "This Week with George Stephanopoulos" to talk about how Clinton's second presidential run will be different than her first. WATCH: http://abcn.ws/1C6nTH6
NOTED: MEET THE 'SUPER VOLUNTEERS' THE CLINTON CAMPAIGN DIDN'T EVEN KNOW ABOUT. They're the "HRC Super Volunteers" -- a group of near obsessive Hillary Clinton supporters who travel, on their own dime, to volunteer at the Democratic presidential candidate's campaign events. Not affiliated with the Clinton campaign, this unofficial group has taken it upon themselves to help recruit people into Clinton's grassroots network, engage people on social media, fund-raise and provide volunteer support for Clinton, ABC's LIZ KREUTZ notes. John West, a 39-year-old landscape architect from Chicago, Illinois and co-leader of the "HRC Super Volunteers," and Jim Livesey, from Wisconsin, both drove to Des Moines, Iowa for Clinton's first campaign rally the state on Sunday. Wearing giant "H" cutouts around their necks and holding a life-sized cardboard cutout of Clinton, the two men walked up and down the line of Iowans who showed up for the rally -- which took place at the Iowa State Fairgrounds - engaging with the crowds to generate excitement. http://abcn.ws/1GHPkyf
FIVE STORIES YOU'LL CARE ABOUT IN POLITICS THIS WEEK. From Jeb Bush to Donald Trump and everything in between, here are some of the stories the ABC News political team will be tracking in the week ahead, courtesy of ABC's RICK KLEIN: http://abcn.ws/1TkWThQ
CHRIS CHRISTIE SAYS HILLARY CLINTON DOESN'T KNOW CONCERNS OF 'REAL AMERICANS.' New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie took a swipe at Hillary Clinton yesterday, saying he doubts whether the Democratic presidential candidate knows the concerns of "real Americans." according to ABC's ADAM DESIDERIO. Christie, who hasn't entered the presidential race, said Clinton's speech during her campaign rally Saturday in New York City sounded like it was put together by "liberal political consultants." "I thought Elizabeth Warren wasn't running for president," Christie said in an exclusive interview on ABC's "This Week." "Mrs. Clinton doesn't hear from anybody, she doesn't talk to anybody, she doesn't take questions from anybody. How would she know what real Americans are concerned about?" Turning on his GOP rivals, Christie questioned whether former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush -- who's expected to announce his presidential campaign on Monday -- is "combat ready" for Washington, D.C. He also touted his own achievements with the New Jersey state legislature, including earning 61 percent of the vote when he was reelected. http://abcn.ws/1fayP1h
WHO'S TWEETING?
@stuartpstevens: @JebBush is a thoughtful leader who cares deeply about helping others. Wish him & many friends on team all best. May odds be in your favor.
@SalenaZitoTrib: Prince put on private show 2 hour show for 500 guests @WhiteHouse--no member of the press apparently knew about it http://pge.sx/1JPlgBs
@politico: Clinton confidant set for private Benghazi grilling http://politi.co/1LavMjK | Getty
@rollcall: Senators Working to Address Food Service Worker Issue http://roll.cl/1L5DD5i via @bridgetbhc
@ColbyItkowitz: .@MittRomney makes a funny on Morning Joe, says @HillaryClinton was "smiling with her mouth, but her eyes were saying where's my latte."
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