Poll: Bush Back at 50 Percent Mark

Oct. 29, 2004 -- -- A better showing among movable voters has helped put George W. Bush back at the 50 percent mark, with 47 percent support for John Kerry among likely voters as the 2004 presidential campaign enters its closing days.

The race is still very close: Given polling tolerances, a three-point gap is not large enough to be conclusively characterized as a lead. Bush has improved in the last few days among some groups, such as movables, conservative Democrats and young adults. But Kerry's doing a bit better among white Catholics, a key swing group, helping to keep it tight.

The ABC News tracking poll shows no impact from the controversy over missing munitions in Iraq. Importance of Iraq as a voting issue hasn't significantly changed; Kerry still leads broadly -- but no more so -- among those who call it their top issue.

This poll is based on interviews Monday through Thursday; results from last Saturday and Sunday, which were two of Kerry's three best days since this tracking poll began Oct. 1, have rolled out of the average. The results the past four days have been quite stable -- a small numerical advantage for Bush, within the margin of error, each night.

The race has been quite stable among voters who say they've definitely made up their minds (essentially an even split between Bush and Kerry). There's been more change among movable voters -- those who haven't made a definite choice.

Movables in today's results favor Bush by 52-33 percent, a change from 46-36 percent in Kerry's favor as of Sunday. It's a small group -- eight percent of likely voters, down from 14 percent when tracking began -- but in a close race, an important one.

Questions about movables remain. One is whether they keep moving; they still, by their own description, have not definitely decided. Another is how many of them actually vote: Movables are 30 points less likely than decided voters to be following the race very closely; that suggests less commitment to the process, which may mean lower turnout in this group.