Dems eye Va. as 2008 battleground
MECHANICSVILLE, Va. -- Gordon Maddox, a retired career police officer in this southern Virginia town, ticked off his priorities when deciding who to vote for in a presidential race.
"Integrity." "Good moral character." "Christian leadership."
These qualities rarely appear in national polls asking voters to list their priorities this election. But they come up often in southern Virginia, home to numerous military schools and evangelical universities.
Largely on the strength of this region, Republicans have been taking Virginia in presidential elections for decades. The last time a Democrat won here was in 1964 when Lyndon Johnson defeated U.S. Sen. Barry Goldwater.
But Democrats believe the political stars may be aligned to turn the Old Dominion their way.
For instance, Virginia has elected back-to-back Democrats for governor. In 2006, voters sent a Democrat to the U.S. Senate to replace a Republican. And Democrats made significant gains in 2007 in the Virginia House and took control of the state Senate.
Most important, Democrats may not have to win over southern Virginians.
That's because the Virginia counties in the north close to Washington, D.C., have seen a huge influx of people in recent years and they vote Democratic.
"Northern Virginia has gotten deeper and deeper blue," says Bob Hovis, 66, a lawyer who lives in Fairfax County about 15 miles from Washington. "I think this is the year to turn Virginia completely blue."
Since 2004, one out of every four new voter registrations have been in three counties: Fairfax, Loudoun and Prince William, according to figures from the state Board of Elections. All are in Northern Virginia.
The race is close, polls say. Republican John McCain's lead of 50%-46% over Democrat Barack Obama in a CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corp. poll, conducted in Virginia after both parties held their conventions, was within the poll's margin of error.
Mark Rozell, a public policy professor based at George Mason University's Arlington campus, says he had expected the growth of the Democrat-leaning north and an increase in minority groups (which tend to vote Democratic) around the state to eventually weaken the Republican grip. But the change "came about more suddenly and dramatically than I had ever imagined."
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