Republicans Taking Big Gamble on Stimulus?

Feb. 10, 2009 — -- The following is a commentary by ABC News' Sam Donaldson. Click here to view a video version of his latest essay.

Let's talk the politics of the financial rescue plan and what seems to me to be a big gamble by congressional Republicans.

In his news conference Monday night, President Obama suggested the Republicans are just "playing politics" by almost unanimously opposing his plan. That is clearly too broad a brush. Surely many Republicans sincerely oppose the bill on the merits. And, of course, on final passage of the compromise Senate-House bill, some may vote for it.

Congressional Republicans, noting the polls that indicate a good number of Americans don't like taxpayer-supplied "bailouts," believe they have an issue that can help bring them back from November's resounding defeat.

But, if congressional Republicans continue in almost solid opposition, it does two things. In the short run, it splits the party to some extent. Many Republican governors like Florida's Charlie Crist, who introduced the president in Florida, want the plan and its aid to the states.

But, the gamble is really in the long run. Who knows how long it will take for the world economy to recover and when it does -- and surely we must all suppose that it will -- economists can argue forever about what brought about the recovery. But, the public is likely to give the overall Obama financial plan a lot of the credit (whether deserved or not).

And, if that recovery does not occur within the next two years, then the Republicans could gain in the 2010 elections by saying, "See, we told you this wouldn't work." But, even if the economy hasn't recovered by 2010, the odds increase that it will recover by 2012 when Obama is expected to run for re-election. He will run on a familiar slogan -- "It's morning in America again" -- and he will drive home the point with a vengeance that it's "morning" despite what he will call the "know-nothing, obstructionist, Republican opposition."