-- THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT FOR 'THIS WEEK' on November 6, 2016 and it will be updated.
ANNOUNCER: Starting right now on a special election edition of THIS WEEK. Just two days to go.
HILLARY CLINTON (D), PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE; Who acts like this?I'll tell you who, a bully.
ANNOUNCER: After a campaign of surprises.
CLINTON: This, my friends, is not a normal election.
ANNOUNCER: The final hours. Hillary Clinton calling on her star supporters.
CLINTON: Let's prove that love trumps hate.
ANNOUNCER: And overnight, Trump rushed off the stage.
TRUMP: Nobody said it was going to be easy for us.
ANNOUNCER: Now, America heading to the ballot box.
GOV. MIKE PENCE (R-IN), VICE PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE: This movement is coming together.
TRUMP: You haven't voted? You're fired.
BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Democracy is on the ballot.
ANNOUNCER: Our country at a crossroads.
CLINTON: This is an election about change. The real question is, what kind of change?
ANNOUNCER: The very latest on the final stretch and the fight to the finish. 48 hours, 2 candidates, 1 new president, who will be number 45?
GEORGE STEPHANOPOULOS, ABC HOST: Good morning. 48 hours to go in a campaign that's been anything but normal, unpredictable, bitter and ugly. Two of the least liked candidates in history slugging it out with so much at stake.
And all over the country, high anxiety. One sign that Trump's rally last night in Reno, the Secret Service rushed the stage -- look at it there -- after someone in the crowd yelled gun. There was no gun. No threat. But tensions could not be higher in these final hours.
Let's get straight to our correspondents who have been out with the candidates from the very start. Tom Llamas with Donald Trump, Cecilia Vega with Hillary Clinton.
And, Cecilia, let me begin with you in Philadelphia. Good morning.
CECILIA VEGA, ABC NEWS CORRESPONDENT: George, good morning to you.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Now, Cecilia, the Clinton team does seem a little bit concerned going back to Pennsylvania, going to Michigan, as well. What else are they telling you they're worried about in these final hours, and what gives them the most hope?
STEPHANOPOULOS: OK, Cecilia Vega, thanks very much.
TOM LLAMAS, ABC NEWS CORRESPONDENT: George, good morning. That is so true.
Now, Donald Trump is hitting so many states, he's hosting so many events, and he's using that grueling schedule, that marathon campaigning, as an attack on Hillary Clinton. Here's what he had to say.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TRUMP: she has no energy. You know, you need energy to help this country. Like, for instance, I'm going to be doing five or six of these every day. You need energy here, folks. She goes home and she goes to sleep.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
STEPHANOPOULOS: And Tom, picking up on what Cecilia was talking about, that state of Michigan, of course, that state had a big surprise for Hillary Clinton back in the primaries where Bernie Sanders surprised everybody by winning. The Trump campaign banking on the same thing.
LLAMAS: George, Trump is headed to Michigan later tonight, will be at that event and he has invested time and resources in that state. But something that's concerning them is the state of Nevada. Just last night Trump announced a rigged election in Las Vegas because one of the polling locations stayed open two hours later, that's because people were waiting in line for two hours later. That's because people were waiting in line for two hours, and as Cecilia had mentioned, those large groups of Latino voters voting early definitely worrying the Trump campaign -- George.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Thanks, guys. Stay safe out there.
Now let's bring in Jon Karl. We are going to take a deeper dive now t the electoral map. You have our latest ratings from ABC News.
JONATHAN KARL, ABC NEWS CORRESPONDENT: That's right.
And as it's been throughout this campaign, the map still favors Hillary Clinton, although the battleground has expanded over the past week. The red states are states that we have rated advantage Trump; blue, advantage, Hillary Clinton, gray are the toss-ups.
And if you look at it right now, George, Hillary Clinton even just with the states that already advantage her is at 275 electoral vote, enough to become president.
STEPHANOPOULOS: So, that's your clearest path to victory. But she's got several paths.
KARL: Yeah, she has several paths. The first is simply to hang on to those blue state, particularly right here, this is her big blue fire wall -- Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, states that they are looking at in the final week, states that Trump has shown signs of life. If she hangs on to that, she wins, she wins narrowly.
But the other one, George, is this, this really does it, the state of Florida. If Hillary Clinton can win the state of Florida, and right now they feel confident down there, it is lights out for Donald Trump.
Check this out even if he manages to win Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, he doesn't get what he needs.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Yeah, the Latino vote down in Florida so far that early vote astounding -- 200,000 more Hispanics have voted by Friday than voted in the entire last election. But what is Trump's best path right now?
KARL: He's got two paths that I see. First of all, he can win every single one of the toss-up states. So all of them. He runs the take on the toss-up states. Even there he comes up short. He wins the state of Nevada, gets to 269, 269. Then he needs to win the single congressional district, the second congressional district up in Maine. That is one path that would get him to 270.
The other path he has is, again, to win every single one of the toss-up states and pick off one of those states in the industrial Midwest, for instance, if he takes Pennsylvania, that would get him to where he needs. But again, to do that he still needs to win every single toss-up state.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Jon Karl, thanks very much.
And we are joined by the chair of the Clinton campaign, John Podesta. John, thank you for joining us this morning.
You saw our poll, five-point lead this morning. Where do you see the race?
JOHN PODESTA, CLINTON CAMPAIGN CHAIRMAN: Well, look, we feel pretty good, George, but we’re leaving nothing to chance. We’re going to run through the tape. There’s a lot of work to do between now and Tuesday, when the polls close Tuesday night. So we’re feeling good, we’re closing strong, but we’re -- but we’ve got a tremendous amount of work to do and we’ve got a million volunteers across the country who are doing that work for us.
STEPHANOPOULOS: It seems like you’ve got a lot of work to do in that state of Michigan. The Trump campaign pushing very, very hard there right now. They’re going to Minnesota as well. They think they can break down your blue firewall in the upper Midwest.
PODESTA: Well, look, we feel good about Minnesota. You know, he made that last-minute change to abandon Wisconsin and go to Minnesota; we’re not sure why he did that. But with respect to Michigan, you know, as Jonathan Karl pointed out, if we hold onto Nevada, and that looks strong in the early vote, Michigan votes for the most part on Election Day. You know, we think we have this race over. We’re going to get over our 270 electoral votes.
So we’re going where the votes are. We’re going to finish strong. We feel good about Michigan and the rest of those states. But as you noted, she was in Florida yesterday. We’ll -- we feel like we’ve got to do work, but we’ve got an edge in North Carolina. So there are a lot of paths to our victory, but we want to hold on to the states that we think ought to be in the Democratic column, and Michigan’s one of them.
STEPHANOPOULOS: You mention those states, Florida and Nevada, where you’ve seen that real surge in Latino voting over the early vote period. And you saw Donald Trump out in Nevada last night saying the fact that they kept the polls open in Las Vegas on Friday night until 10:00 is a sign that the system is rigged.
PODESTA: Yes, you know, that’s ridiculous. The people were in line and they got -- the people who were in line got to vote, and they, as normal, kept the votes, kept the polling place open so that they could vote.
But, you know, with Donald Trump, if he’s losing, everything’s rigged. When he lost the Emmys, it was rigged. When he lost the primaries, you know, those occasions where he lost the primaries in the Republican run-up, it was rigged. So if he’s losing, it’s rigged.
But I think the American people see through that. They know that this is going to be a fair election. Republican voting officials across the country have said that. Marco Rubio has said it. Paul Ryan has said it. It’s going to be -- you know, we’ve seen a surge of voting. You noted the Latino surge in Florida, in Nevada. We're feeling very good about that. And, you know, I think we're going to keep working to make sure that we're successful.
STEPHANOPOULOS: A surge in Latinos, but African-Americans have been lagging.
PODESTA: Well, look, I think, you know, if you look at Florida, for example, we've now gotten more early vote amongst the African-American community that -- than we had in 20 -- in 2012. As voting sites expanded in North Carolina, the vote numbers went up. And, you know, in 2012, they would -- the first African-American president was running for reelection.
But we're going to try to match his numbers. And we're feeling like our organization can keep working to help produce that. And Hillary is going to be out in Philadelphia tomorrow, you know, across in -- with LeBron James today in Ohio. We are very glad to be with Beyonce and Jay Z.
Donald Trump inexplicably attacked them last night, so I'm not sure that's smart for him. But, you know, we're going to do what we can to make sure that people are hearing her message that we're stronger together, we're going to build a country that's united. We're going to bring everybody to the table. We're going to make the right investments to create an economy that's working for everyone and not just those at the top.
STEPHANOPOULOS: That message has been somewhat drowned out in the last week since the announcement from James Comey of the FBI that he was looking at some more emails in that email investigation. Also, other leaks from the FBI.
And Tim Kaine, your vice presidential candidate, has now said that some in the FBI are, quote, "actively working in support of Donald Trump."
Do you believe that?
PODESTA: Well, look, I'm -- you know, we're all disturbed, first of all, by the letter, which really broke precedent, was over the advice of the leaders in the Justice Department. You know, I'm not challenging Mr. Comey's motivation, but I do think it was unwarranted. It was a mistake. And I think that Republican and Democratic former Justice Department officials have come out and questioned the move that he made.
And with respect to the leaks that have gone on throughout the week, with Rudy Giuliani saying he's hearing leaks from the FBI.
You know, I -- I don't know what to make of it. I know that Elijah Cummins, John Conyers sent a letter to the Justice Department on Friday asking the inspector general to investigate those leaks.
But, you know, I'm not going to -- you know, our job is really just to -- to get those doors knocked, the phone calls made to get our people out to the polls. We’ll let other people worry about that.
The most important number I saw yesterday was seven million voter contacts we did just one day, three million face-to-face, four million on the phone. So that’s what we’re concerned about.
STEPHANOPOULOS: You know, last...
PODESTA: We’ll let other people worry about the rest.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Last week, you said you wanted Mr. Comey to come out with more information.
Do you still want that?
Or do you think at this point it’s better now for nothing to come out until after the election?
PODESTA: Look, I think that -- we always said that this would -- was -- you know, would end the same place it ended last June, when he said that no further action was warranted. It wasn’t even a close case. There’s nothing that we believe that in this current round of -- that the FBI -- the emails that he’s looking at, that will change that outcome.
So if he’s got more information, let him put it out. And that’s what we’ve said right from the beginning of this controversy and saga.
STEPHANOPOULOS: It did seem to cost Hillary Clinton the chance to -- to use her words -- go high in these final 10 days. You know, we’re going to have a bitterly divided country no matter who wins on Tuesday.
If Hillary Clinton wins, how is she going to be able to begin to heal those divisions?
PODESTA: Look, you know, that’s what she’s out talking about. That’s what she was saying in Florida, that she’s going to be a president for everyone -- people who supported her, people who didn’t support her. She’s closing with a two minute ad that is optimistic, that talks about what she wants to do for the country.
In contrast, Donald Trump has a two minute ad that looks like it’s a kind of a rip from a Batman movie. You know, he kind of lives in a dark place and he’s run this campaign on division and bigotry. We’re going to try to finish high, talk about what we can do to make sure every kid has a chance to succeed. That’s what she’s done her whole life; that’s what she’ll do as president.
And, you know, she’s gotten success with that, working with Republicans and Democrats to do things, like the Children’s Health Insurance Program, like making sure that first responders got health care that they needed, that National Guardsmen and women got the health care they needed. She knows how to work across the aisle and that’s what she’ll do as president.
STEPHANOPOULOS: John Podesta, thanks very much for your time this morning.
PODESTA: Thank you, George.
STEPHANOPOULOS: And we are joined now by the chair of the Republican Party, Reince Priebus.
Mr. Priebus, thank you for joining us this morning.
You just heard John Podesta right there. Our poll has it a 5 point lead for Hillary Clinton. A new NBC Poll out this morning, a 4 point lead for Hillary Clinton.
Are you fighting from behind?
REINCE PRIEBUS, CHAIRMAN, REPUBLICAN NATIONAL COMMITTEE: No, I don't think we're fighting from behind. We've got the momentum, George. I mean that's the difference in -- in this election. You know, when you can close and get stronger and stronger to the finish line, you know more than anyone, momentum is -- is everything you need.
And there's no question that over the last week and a half, Donald Trump has had an enormous amount of momentum. It's helping, obviously, his choices and it's also helping all those senators out there that are running.
So we feel good and we think that the American people are finding out that, in fact, Hillary Clinton is crooked and that she has potential broken the law.
And, you know, I just heard the interview about how can Hillary Clinton heal?
Well, she's going to have a hard time healing the country because, number one, she's not going to win. But number two, even if she does, she may have committed series crimes. So...
STEPHANOPOULOS: Based on what?
PRIEBUS: So I mean it's hard...
PRIEBUS: -- to heal a country.
STEPHANOPOULOS: -- the only conclusion we've had from the FBI director so far is that no reasonable person would have prosecuted.
PRIEBUS: Right. That -- that's their conclusion so far. But they're also actively reviewing 650,000 emails. And I can assure you, that we already know that some of them are not duplicative. Six hundred and fifty thousand emails on Anthony Weiner's laptop suddenly show up about a month ago. The investigation is continuing. And, look, I think the American people have serious concerns about it. I would. And I take most people do. And they think that, obviously, this is going to be a big liability for her.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Going forward, as in these final 48 hours, you're obviously making a big play in Michigan. It seems like Donald Trump has turned away from your home state of Wisconsin.
What's going on in Michigan right now and what is the blue state in the Upper Midwest where you have the best chance of winning?
PRIEBUS: We'll, he hasn't turned away from Wisconsin, George. Mike Pence was there yesterday campaigning with Paul Ryan. It's even possible he would go back to Wisconsin tomorrow.
So I mean I'm just -- I want to put that out there.
But as far as Michigan is concerned, I mean we have to look at our -- our -- our data. And we went in -- we go in with 3,000 samples a night. It matches public polling. It's an absolute toss-up.
And so when you look at a place like Michigan, where jobs have gone to Mexico and China and people are out of work and people want things to get better, I think Donald Trump is offering that vision for -- for the state of Michigan. and we win a state like Michigan, and, as you know, it's all over. If I would have told you a year ago that we have a candidate that can win Florida, Ohio and Michigan, we would say that's a candidate that's going to win.
So I think it's a great opportunity for us.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Well, you still have something else in there that I think is significant. You're right, Michigan is significant.
But Florida perhaps even more. And you've seen that Latino surge down in Florida right now. The Democrats seem confident about that and they are breaking records with this early vote of Latinos, likely to break against Mr. Trump.
PRIEBUS: Yes, but what -- what you're not saying -- and I know you're not doing it on purpose -- but there are 75,000 votes behind on party registration votes and early vote in Florida today than they were four years ago.
So they're actually -- you know, and here's the thing. They're behind that -- where they were four years ago. We lost Florida by 75,000 votes four years ago. They're 75,000 votes behind today.
And so -- and the same thing in North Carolina. They're about 100,000 votes behind in North Carolina than where they were four years ago.
We went into election day, George, in North Carolina four years ago down by 455,000 votes. We won North Carolina.
So everyone out there needs to understand that the early vote issue can only tell you so much and you've got to look beyond the numbers.
Look at Iowa. We're behind in Iowa today in early vote. No one actually thinks we're going to lose Iowa. But we're way ahead of where we were four years ago. We're ahead by 70,000 votes in Ohio today.
So, you know, when they're concentrating on Cleveland two days before Tuesday, they're not expanding the map in Ohio, I can assure you. Their plan -- their game plan has to be lock down Cleveland then experienced through Ohio.
That's not what they're doing, George.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Ohio has been a tougher state for them this time, no question about that.
In Nevada, Donald Trump says if the signs from the early vote are that that state is rigged.
Do you believe that?
PRIEBUS: Well, look, you know that we're bound by a consent decree, George, so I'm not much fun on -- on that subject, because we're under court order from 1983. So it's an old, old case and that's Donald Trump's campaign that would be looking into something like that, not the RNC.
But we want -- we want to make it easy to -- to vote for everybody. We want to make it something that everyone can participate in. We feel good that we're ahead of our pace in Nevada, as well. But look, you know, look at Colorado, George. I don't think people are talking about it today, but we're 1,7000 votes ahead in an all mail in state in Colorado today. It is a jump ball in Colorado.
So there are lots of pathways to getting to 270.
STEPHANOPOULOS: If it doesn't turn out your way -- we're still waiting to see. Donald Trump says you'll take a look at what happens on Tuesday and decide whether or not to concede, if, indeed, the votes are going against him.
Right now a lot of the questions you've raised are starting to affect Republican voters as well. About a quarter, according to recent polls, say that they're not going to accept the results. If Donald Trump loses on Tuesday, will you go out and tell Republicans that they should accept the results?
PRIEBUS: Well, I think barring some sort of, you know, year 2000 type of an election, sure. I mean, if it's clear, then obviously that would be the case.
But I think what Donald Trump is talking about is simply not, number one, no one is going to concede anything. Hillary Clinton wouldn't concede anything. Donald Trump wouldn't concede anything. But also you wouldn't forgo a legitimate recount opportunity like you had in 2000 days before an election. So I think that's really the issue. I think the bigger issue for Donald Trump --
STEPHANOPOULOS: So you believe he'll accept a clear result?
PRIEBUS: I do. And I think that the big issue, though, for Donald Trump is not you, but generally there is a huge media pile-on. And it took obviously a big toll, I think, on the election, this total and complete obsession with every transgression and every quote from the last 30 years of Donald Trump, when we have another candidate that has totally -- using John Podesta and his team's words -- screwed up everything that she's ever touched. And you look at Russia. You look at Libya. You look at Benghazi. Look at her e-mails. Look at the Clinton Foundation, Bill Clinton, Inc.
Larry Truman said that the only way a politician can get rich is by being crooked.
STEPHANOPOULOS: I think both sides --
PRIEBUS: I don't know how Hillary --
STEPHANOPOULOS: I think both sides would say that they've been subject to unfair media during this election. I can assure you of that. But let's look at the alternative. If indeed Donald Trump does win --
PRIEBUS: I don't know too many people that 15 bleached computers and taken hatchets to BlackBerries and deleted 33,000 e-mails while --
STEPHANOPOULOS: Well, you're just throwing out a lot of words there. It doesn't -- if doesn't counter the conclusion of James Comey.
PRIEBUS: It sounds pretty bad.
STEPHANOPOULOS: No reasonable prosecutor would bring this case. But let me ask you about --
PRIEBUS: Yes, but that was in June, George. But that was in June. What did he say last week? He said that the e-mails that he's reviewing that found on Anthony Weiner's laptop could be pertinent.
STEPHANOPOULOS: And everything you were talking about happened before June. I want to --
PRIEBUS: She's created -- she's sold her position as Secretary of State to give -- put money in her pocket and Bill Clinton's pocket. Something is not right. Come on. It's not normal behavior, George. You know that. I'm saying something that average, normal people would listen to and say, it doesn't seem right that she made $250 million a few years after leaving public office. It's bizarre.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Final question, if Donald Trump wins, are you going to join him in the White House?
PRIEBUS: No one is talking about that, George. I'm running the party and I love the job.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Reince Priebus, thanks for joining us this morning.
PRIEBUS: Thank you, sir.
STEPHANOPOULOS: You've heard from both parties. Next we turn to the battlegrounds, Martha Raddatz on the trail with voters. The latest forecast from Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight. And expert analysis from our powerhouse roundtable.
STEPHANOPOULOS: This October has seen more than its share of surprises. So is one more on the way? We have seen some late ones before. Back in 1992, a big Iran-Contra indictment dropped the Friday before the election, after the race had already moved away from George Bush.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: You seem to say that you --
GEORGE H. W. BUSH, THEN-CANDIDATE FOR PRESIDENT: You ought the spend the whole time talking about --
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: No, but --
BUSH: Because I don't.
STEPHANOPOULOS (voice-over): In 2000, his son George W.'s DUI arrest broke the Thursday before the vote.
GEORGE W. BUSH, THEN-CANDIDATE FOR PRESIDENT: There's a report out tonight that 24 years ago I was apprehended in Kennebunkport, Maine, for a DUI. That's an accurate story and why now, four days before an election. I got my suspicions.
STEPHANOPOULOS: And in 2004, a bin Laden tape the Friday before the vote boosted Bush against John Kerry.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: On world news tonight, Osama bin Laden shows up on a videotape four days before the election. He tries to explain why he would do it again.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It's a reminder that we are engaged in a global war on terror.
STEPHANOPOULOS: 48 hours to go. We're get the latest election forecast from Nate Silver next and ask which x factors he's thinking about. Plus, Martha Raddatz is out with voters in Ohio and Pennsylvania. And our roundtable's standing by with their final predictions. Stay with us.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TRUMP: If we unlock the potential of this country and its incredible people, no dream is outside of our reach.
CLINTON: When your kids and your grandkids ask what you did in 2016 when everything was on the line, I hope you'll be able to say I voted for a better, stronger, fairer America.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
STEPHANOPOULOS: Both candidates in Pennsylvania getting all kinds of attention in these final hours. They're going to cap off their campaigns with big rallies in that state. And as she has all year, our Martha Raddatz is on the trail there to talk to these all-important voters in the final hours.
MARTHA RADDATZ, ABC NEWS CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): On the first of my trips to western Pennsylvania last summer, I met Monessen, Pennsylvania, mayor Lou Mavrakis.
LOU MAVRAKIS, MAYOR OF MONESSEN, PENNSYLVANIA: You look at Monessen. We lost over 8,000 steelworker jobs.
RADDATZ: Mayor Mavrakis is a Democrat who today is still undecided between Trump and Clinton.
(on camera): How big is this town?
MAVRAKIS: It used to be 23,000, 24,000. There's 7500 left. That's all that's left.
RADDATZ: He still can't quite believe that what remains of his town is now Trump country.
MAVRAKIS: You are looking at a community that never ever had Republican signs because it was -- it was a no-no. Now, see, you got Trump again. You see.
RADDATZ: Trump, Trump, Trump, Trump.
But yard signs aside, for generations the small towns of western Pennsylvania have trended increasingly red. Westmoreland county, split 50/50 Clinton/Dole in 1996 and hasn't looked back. Bush, Bush, McCain, Romney.
At a diner in nearby Bedford County, we met Patty and Gary Owen, who exemplify the trend if a little late.
Gary wants Trump.
GARY OWEN, PENNSYLVANIA VOTER: And to make us the world leader once again, that everybody looks to us as the world power once again.
RADDATZ: But while small towns in Pennsylvania have gone rust red, the suburbs have been moving in the opposite direction. In past cycles the collar counties of Philadelphia have been true toss ups. This year, they seem more solidly blue.
But you voted Republican in the past?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I have. I voted both. I consider -- I'm registered Democrat but I vote either way. I'm not really aligned to either.
I'm going to vote for Hillary today.
RADDATZ: It's a diverse middle class place trending younger with diverse opinions.
UNIDENIFIED FEMALE: I'm doing Donald Trump.
RADDATZ: And who are you voting for?
UNIDENITIFIED FEMALE: I'm voting for Hillary.
So a little disagreement between you guys.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: We don't like to talk about it.
RADDATZ: And a more educated population on average, which tends to go with support for Clinton.
UNIDENITIFIED MALE: I'm a former federal prosecutor, former assistant United States attorney. She happened to be secretary of state when an unfortunate incident happened. The emails, you know, I think she admits that it was a probably a poor lapse of judgment. It was nothing further than that.
RADDATZ: Delaware county is 30 percent nonwhite compared to 5 percent in Mayor Mavrakis' Westmotherland County.
When Venia Graham (ph) has never wavered.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: No, it's going to be Hillary, because I think she's going to bring a different type of change regardless of what's going on with the whole email thing.
RADDATZ: We started out assuming that the answer to our simple question, how will swing state voters behave would have a complicated answer. And for some, it really will be.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I may write myself in for president of the United States because I'm probably more qualified.
RADDATZ: But, in fact, we found the same trends observers have seen going back 30 years, areas around cities getting bluer and more diverse, small towns getting poorer and more conservative.
And if those trends hold true on election day, the maps favor Hillary Clinton because there are just more people around Philadelphia. We refer to these states as the Rust Belt as if they're one undifferentiated thing, but maybe it's the old two Americas, so close you drive between front lines without crossing state lines.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Martha Raddatz on the ground. She'll be a big part of our coverage on Tuesday night.
We want to get more on where the race stands right now from the forecasting guru Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight. Nate, thanks for coming in.
So, you made your bones in 2008, 2012, nailed the election for Barack Obama. Like everyone else you missed Donald Trump in the primaries. So where does your forecast have the race right now?
NATE SILVER, FIVETHIRTYEIGHT: So, we show a three-point lead nationally for Clinton, and she's about a 2-1 favorite. The electoral college map is actually less solid for Clinton than it was for Obama four years ago where four years ago we had Obama ahead in states totaling 320 some electoral votes. Clinton has about 270, so she's one state away from potentially losing the electoral college. You'd rather be in her shoes than Donald Trump's but it's not a terribly safe position.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Yeah, you give her about a 65.7 chance to win.
Now, this is the question I want to get to, though, because you say she, according to your polling analysis, about a three-point lead, that was about where President Obama the Sunday before the election four years ago, yet, and I want to put this up on the board right now, at that time you showed he had an 85.1 percent chance of winning.
So, why the contrast right there?
SILVER: So, Clinton is a lot weaker in the Midwest where four years ago President Obama was leading in Ohio by four points. Clinton's probably a couple of points behind there. Iowa, maybe the best poll in the country, the Des Moines Register Poll showed her down seven points in Iowa, a state she'll probably lose.
So the demographics for Clinton don't actually work as well when you underperform among white noncollege voters. That's a good group...
STEPHANOPOULOS: Even though the national polling is about the same.
SILVER: Even though -- so but it's contesting the electoral college and her electoral college polling in the swing states is a little bit weaker than Obama's. So in some sense, it's a deceptively large or small lead for Clinton in some ways whereas Obama had a bigger lead electorally than you'd think.
The other thing, too, is that we see lots of polls that show numbers like Clinton 44 percent, Trump 40 percent. If you only have 44 percent of the vote that means you're vulnerable if most of the undecideds break in a certain way whereas four years ago it was like Obama 49, Romney 46. So in that sense both candidates still need a good turnout on election day and still have their work cut out for them.
STEPHANOPOULOS: This year, we've seen a high early vote, about 41 million Americans have already voted. You don't pay that much attention to the early vote.
SILVER: Well, look, our model is designed to look at the public polling. And if you want to look at anything else that you want, and the early vote, then that's fine and I think there are definitely some decent signs for Democrats in Nevada, for example.
But Democrats also in 2014 told themselves a lot of stories about how they would be saved by the early vote and got wiped out across the board in the midterms, the polls actually overestimate howwell Democrats would do., So I would be a little bit careful.
With the exception of Nevada, which is a hard state to poll, you know, that should be incorporated in theory in the polling numbers.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Another variability that we've seen here right now. There have been a lot of other forecasts out there, Princeton Election Consortium, Huffington Post, several others -- and The New York Times. Yours is much more bullish for Donald Trump and more cautious on Hillary Clinton than theirs are. Why?
SILVER: Because we think we have a good process and, look, you have some forecasts that show Clinton with a 98 or 99 percent chance of winning. That doesn't pass a commonsense test, which is we've seen lots of elections where there's about a three-point polling error. In 2012, in fact, Obama beat his polls in many states by about three points. If Clinton were to beat her polls by three points and you see something we call a borderline landslide, but if it goes the other way, and all of a sudden Trump could very easily win the electoral college.
I mean, it's all based on history. People have different ways of interpreting history, but, you know, if you think a three-point lead is going to be safe 98 or 99 percent of the time, then you probably didn't design the model in a good way.
STEPHANOPOULOS: 48 hours before the final votes, I want to bring out Donald Rumsfeld. We can't know what an unknown unknown is, but what the known unknowns. What are you paying attention to?
SILVER: I mean, look, it is true that Democrats have a larger base, and so if Clinton gets her voters to turn out and the weakest part of that might be African-Americans who turned out in very big numbers for President Obama four ago and eight years ago, maybe millennial voters. If they turn out in big numbers, and there are better signs for Democrats in states like Florida and North Carolina recently, then she's in a pretty safe position. If they don't, though, and if there is a big white working class vote for Trump, if you see some suburban Republicans convert back to Trump at the last minute because he's been relatively quiet on the campaign trail, that's a case in which he could lose potentially.
Even states like Colorado that seem safe for Clinton, and she'll probably win, but you've seen tightening in many different states and so there's a scenario or two by which she winds up a little short of enough electoral votes.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Nate Silver, thanks very much for joining us. You'll be joining us Tuesday night as well. And we'll be right back with our powerhouse roundtable.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
ALEC BALDWIN AS DONALD TRUMP, "SATURDAY NIGHT LIVE": I will assign a special prosecutor --
KATE MCKINNON AS HILLARY CLINTON, "SATURDAY NIGHT LIVE": No, no, no, no, no.
BALDWIN: -- to make sure that she never -- I'm sorry, Kate. I just hate yelling all this stuff at you like this.
MCKINNON: I know, right? This whole election has been so mean.
BALDWIN: I mean, I'm still (INAUDIBLE).
MCKINNON: Let's get out of here.
BALDWIN: What? Where will we go?
MCKINNON: You'll see.
BALDWIN: And now it's time to get out there and vote. None of this will have mattered if you don't vote.
MCKINNON: And we can't tell you who to vote for, but on Tuesday, we all get a chance to choose what kind of country we want to live in.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
STEPHANOPOULOS: “Saturday Night Live" getting earnest in the final hours. Let's talk about these final days with our round table joined by our chief political analyst, Matthew Dowd, Republican pollster, Kristen Soltis Anderson, Democratic Congressman Keith Ellison from Minnesota, and Republican strategist, Alex Castellanos, Democratic strategist, Stephanie Cutter. Thank you all for joining us.
You heard Nate Silver right there says he thinks Hillary Clinton has about a two-thirds chance of winning. Where do you put things right now?
MATTHEW DOWD, ABC NEWS POLITICAL ANALYST: You mean overall number or -- I think she's got about a 95 percent chance in this election and I think she's going to have a higher margin than Barack Obama did in 2012.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Higher margin than --
DOWD: She's going to win by more than 5 billion votes. She’s going to win by a higher percentage and interestingly, she's going to have a more diverse coalition of voters than Barack Obama even had when you look at the final numbers in this race. Every piece of data points in that direction and my view is you take the facts into account and that's what the data says.
STEPHANOPOULOS: You say every piece of data but, Alex Castellanos, there are some signs of some movement in places like Michigan. You heard Nate Silver talk about Colorado tightening up a bit as well even though he believes that Hillary Clinton will win there. It seems like the Trump campaign is counting on this surge of white voters particularly in the Midwest.
ALEX CASTELLANOS, CHAIR, PURPLE STRATEGIES: In the Midwest we've just seen a “Des Moines Register” poll where Trump has expanded his lead there. He is moving in states like Michigan, I think, and Wisconsin, tightening the gap so could there be a little Trump bump here at the end? There's some data that says there is.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Keith Ellison, he's going to your home state of Minnesota.
REP. KEITH ELLISON (D), MINNESOTA: Yes, I hope he stays there for a long time but, look, at the end of the day, she's offering hope and investment and he's saying just here's who you should hate and blame for all your problems. I think voters care about, you know, what that is.
People want to have a better country, not just find somebody to pin it all on when it doesn't go right. So I feel like things are looking good for us and I got a really strong feeling that after we win this election, we have to have a national dialogue on class.
Because clearly one thing this election has shown is there's a lot of people feeling left out and we have got to do something about it.
STEPHANOPOULOS: We've seen so many different kinds of division by class, by education, by gender, by race and Kristen, I want to bring that to you and I think Nate had an appropriate caution on looking at the early vote, but these numbers, we've seen in Nevada and Florida, by -- of Latinos coming out in numbers far greater already than they came out in 2012 could point towards one of the major stories of this election.
KIRSTEN SOLTIS ANDERSON, ABC NEWS CONTRIBUTOR: Even if the top line numbers wind up looking similar to what they looked like four years ago, I think the undercurrents in this election are telling a story about where America is headed.
That we for a long time talked about Democratic potential struggles with the white working class, Republican struggles with Latino voters, this election has sort of kicked all of that into overdrive.
And we're really testing whether or not Republicans' problems with some of these emerging voter groups, was it a long term political problem or was it a short term political problem that they needed to fix this year in order to win the White House.
STEPHANOPOULOS: One other thing we're testing is the organization of each campaign. We’ve seen that in force from the Clinton camp in the last week.
STEPHANIE CUTTER, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: Absolutely, with the strong early vote in places like Florida and Nevada. And we know that a good campaign operation, a good operation can lead to a point or two difference and I think Clinton, you know, we're talking about the polls tightening.
Absolutely the polls are tightening. However, she's still ahead and if you match that where more diverse than ever as a country and she has a sophisticated state-of-the-art GOTV operation, I agree with math. She's got about a 95 percent chance of winning here.
CASTELLANOS: My concern I think like Kristen and Matt have expressed is that Florida, that Hispanic vote is intense and you know when voters figure out that they don't like a candidate that's bad, but when voters figure out that a candidate doesn't like them and I think there's some intensity there in the Hispanic vote that suspects that Donald Trump is just not on their team.
CASTELLANOS: Yes, I'm being generous. I'm being generous here, but these two candidates have really been out of that conflicted spotlight since the last debate quite a few weeks ago and since then, the big forces underneath the election have I think reasserted themselves.
And it’s not just Democrats and Republicans coming home. This is an election that still wants change and Hillary Clinton has never expressed a vision of what that change would be.
DOWD: George, to me this election has been incredibly unprecedented but incredibly predictable actually from the primary --
STEPHANOPOULOS: Breaking down into two camps.
DOWD: If you look at and we remember election night 2012, I said the problem the Republicans have they're a mad men party in a "Modern Family" world and so they wrote an autopsy of the party and they basically said underlying factors we have to figure out a better way to appeal to minority voters and figure out a better way to appeal to college educated voters. On election night Hillary Clinton's margins among non-white voters and college educated will be the highest we've ever seen.
STEPHANOPOULOS: And Kristen Soltis Anderson, the question raised by Peggy Noonan in Friday’s “Wall Street Journal,” she said that Donald Trump didn't break the Republican Party. It was already broken and he exploited it. Is that true or did he break it?
ANDERSON: I think there's a little bit of truth to that. I think that he exploited sort of fault lines that are already existed within the party where when you had the party come out and say we need to do better with younger voters, minority voters, college educated voters, there were a lot of folks in the party that said, well, wait, what about me.
What about the white working class? What about folks in these small towns like where Martha was meeting these voters earlier on in the show and lots of folks that Trump realized weren't being talked to by Republican establishment folks who saw the long-term political challenges. They want to assert their voice now.
ELLISON: But, you know, George, I think Trump does have -- or the Republicans long-term have a problem with the white working class voters, because they're not offering them anything, even now.
STEPHANOPOULOS: But they're not listening to Hillary Clinton right now.
ELLISON: Well, but at the end of -- they may not be listening, but this is a longer-term project -- UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Yes.
ELLISON: -- because at the end of the day, you've got to -- you've got to solve these people's problems, which is jobs, wages, affordability...
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Exactly.
ELLISON: -- infrastructure. And they're not offering them anything to solve the problems.
DOWD: The two parties...
The two parties have a problem. The two major political parties today, Donald Trump is likely to lose and lose badly, but that is not a huge victory for Hillary Clinton in the course of this race, because of how she's perceived by the American public.
CUTTER: Except for the fact that I think we could safely say that Republicans have nearly lost Latino voters and nearly lost single women. And I don't think you could say that Hillary has lost white working class families yet. I think that...
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Well, it will be pretty evident on election night...
CUTTER: Well, I think...
CUTTER: Well, no. I think that we have not lost them as a party. We have an opportunity to address their needs...
CUTTER: -- as the Congress...
ANDERSON: Well, and to that, just look at our agenda compared to Donald Trump's agenda or even...
CUTTER: See that point -- separating the candidate from the party, I think that's going to be important for Republicans, as well. So there is still a chance that domestic terrorism wins the White House.
But in the more likely event that he doesn't, to what extent do voters hold the Republican Party writ large responsible...
ANDERSON: -- for Donald Trump long-term?
Or do they say, you know what, he was sort of an unusual, one time thing...
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Which is why you...
STEPHANOPOULOS: -- he's going to get 44 percent of the vote at least.
CASTELLANOS: He's going to get 44 percent, but he's the solution to the problem that Republican voters see. He is nothing more than an expression of the outrage of a lot of Republican voters at the Republican establishment.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I agree with that.
CASTELLANOS: Our party is broken and unless we -- this is the last election we can crank up our engine way past the red line and try to get 178 percent of the old white guy vote and win anything.
CASTELLANOS: So we have got to become the party of change and the party -- (INAUDIBLE) Change Watch and the party of the people.
DOWD: This is problematic for both parties, because if you look at the data -- when we look at the top line numbers, and then we look at the races underneath that, there is a high likelihood -- I believe that Hillary Clinton is going to win Ohio. And it's going to be close, but she's going to win Ohio.
Rob Portman is going to win Ohio, probably by 20 points. I think Hillary is going to win Florida.
Marco Rubio is going to win underneath Florida -- underneath him, probably by a decent margin. You're going to see that over and over and over again.
There is not a satisfaction with either political party right now. But they're voting for Hillary Clinton because -- UNIDENTIFIED MALE: -- because the alternative...
STEPHANOPOULOS: You raise an important thing. If you're right about those Senate races right there -- and I want to bring this to Keith Ellison -- there's a good chance that even if Hillary wins on Tuesday night, either she has a very close Senate majority or maybe not a Senate majority at all. Probably not going to turn the House, either.
You've already got House Republicans talking about impeachment and a serious of investigations.
How, coming out of this campaign, I asked this to John Podesta in our last cue, how, coming out of this campaign is Hillary Clinton, if she wins, going to be able to bring the country together?
ELLISON: I think Hillary Clinton, after she wins this election, should go to all communities, including white working class communities, and say I'm here to build bridges and to do some construction jobs. I need your help. And I need you to tell those people who claim to represent you that they need to support me in helping you get some jobs.
CUTTER: Well and you can see that in her closing message in this election.
I also think if Republicans want to fix themselves, launching years of investigations...
ELLISON: Oh, goodness.
CUTTER: -- has never worked for them.
DOWD: They ought to...
DOWD: The Republicans make a huge mistake. If I were Hillary Clinton, two days after the election day, I would go meet with Speaker Ryan and Mitch McConnell, go to Capitol Hill, have a meeting with them and the first signals you're going to see from Hillary Clinton is not what she says but what she does. And the staff she brings into the White House, does she bring in the old palace guard that's always done things the same as usual?
Or doe she go out and find new people?
That will be the signal.
CASTELLANOS: Most presidents get a honeymoon. She's going to have to earn one, because the electorate is very...
CASTELLANOS: -- so polarized.
ELLISON: Well, they've already...
ELLISON: -- they've already said that they want to impeach her.
CASTELLANOS: But the problem is, if she has -- I think the challenge for her is with all these legal troubles that she has, she's going to need antibodies. She's going to need to rally her party around her to protect her for four years. And sometimes that leads a candidate to...
DOWD: And we shouldn't underestimate the historical nature. Let's assume Hillary Clinton wins. The historical nature of this election night for the largest, tallest, hardest ceiling that anybody has had to overcome, electing a women, simultaneously with the most diverse coalition that anybody has ever assembled, that is going to be a huge moment in our country.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Will goodwill follow from that, is the question?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Yes.
ELLISON: Well, the answer is going to the people, you've got to go to the working people who elected -- who didn't vote for her -- and tell them, I'm here for you. You've got to do that.
CUTTER: Is the question -- I mean, Alex, I just heard you say, with all of her legal problems -- what legal problems?
CUTTER: The FBI...
CASTELLANOS: Well, two FBI...
CUTTER: -- said there is no justification for prosecution.
CASTELLANOS: -- investigations.
CUTTER: And they are looking at a series of emails that they themselves admitted have no...
CASTELLANOS: They proclaimed...
CUTTER: -- idea what was in them.
CASTELLANOS: There are serious issues.
CUTTER: There are no legal issues.
CASTELLANOS: But I don't -- I hope -- I hope...
CUTTER: Now, if -- if the Republican Party...
CASTELLANOS: -- folks are able to transcend that.
CUTTER: -- takes this point of view, the country is in for a real problem.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Yes.
CUTTER: If we do...
CASTELLANOS: Facts are stubborn things.
CUTTER: -- both reach out our hands and try to do something the -- for this country...
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: That's the hope.
CUTTER: -- Republicans have a chance of correcting themselves. And we have a chance to actually govern.
STEPHANOPOULOS: We're just about out of time.
I'm going to put everybody on the spot.
Put your predictions up on the board.
I'm -- I can't do it because I'm anchoring on Tuesday night. I guess that makes it easier for me.
But Matthew Dowd, you begin.
DOWD: She's going to 50-45. She's going to get very close to that 50 number, which I think would be significant. And, I think she's going to win 341 electoral votes, which means she takes Ohio. The only two states that flip are Iowa and North Carolina.
STEPHANOPOULOS: More than Barack Obama in 2012.
ANDERSON: I wind up going -- starting with that Romney map and I add to Trump's column Ohio, and I add Iowa. But then I take away North Carolina. I think that's a state that potentially a Republican could -- could lose this time around. And then there's Congressional district in Maine. It winds up giving me a prediction of 322 for Clinton.
ELLISON: I see 341. I think she's going to get 50.1 percent of the vote. And I think...
STEPHANOPOULOS: Break 50?
ELLISON: Yes. I'll put it there. And I think that -- then we've got a lot of healing to do, which I think she's well able to do.
STEPHANOPOULOS: (INAUDIBLE) Clinton's?
CASTELLANOS: Two hundred and eighty-six electoral votes for Donald Trump. He wins North Carolina and Ohio and goes up through the Rust Belt. He barely hangs on in Florida. And I think if he does lose, the rational brain said it would be because of the Hispanic vote in Florida. But I think he edges that out and the exit polls, Kerry-Bush...
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Were 6 points off.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I loved your -- for the face.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: -- were 8 points off.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I love your faith.
CASTELLANOS: I think there's a secret, magical Trump vote.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Let Stephanie get it in.
CASTELLANOS: I'm -- I'm for it.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Go ahead, Stephanie.
CUTTER: That would be great.
Three hundred and twenty-three electoral votes. She takes the Obama map minus Iowa and Ohio, but takes North Carolina plus the new Nebraska district.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Thank you all very much.
We'll be right back.
STEPHANOPOULOS: We will be right back after this from our ABC stations.
STEPHANOPOULOS: And now we honor our fellow Americans who serve and sacrifice.
In the month of October, three service members were killed in Iraq and Afghanistan.
And that is all for us today.
I hope you're going to join us election night.
I'll be anchoring our coverage with our whole political team, starting right when the first polls close at 7:00 p.m..
Plus, live coverage all day long on our ABC News app, ABCNews.com and the ABC News Facebook page.
Thanks for sharing part of your Sunday with us. Check out "WORLD NEWS TONIGHT." I'll see you tomorrow on "GMA."