THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT FOR "THIS WEEK" ON DECEMBER 13, 2015 and it will be updated.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
ANNOUNCER: Starting right now on ABC's THIS WEEK, GOP scramble -- the brand new poll out this morning showing national frontrunner Donald Trump falling to second in Iowa.
Is his controversial proposal to ban Muslims helping or hurting the brash billionaire?
And is the GOP establishment starting to panic?
Will Trump go rogue if he's not treated well?
Plus, Ben Carson threatening to leave the party. He speaks out live this morning only on THIS WEEK.
And with the Iowa caucuses 50 days away and two days to the final GOP debate of 2015, this morning on THIS WEEK, so many questions about the race -- answers, insights, analysis. From ABC News, THIS WEEK WITH GEORGE STEPHANOPOULOS begins now.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
GEORGE STEPHANOPOULOS, ABC HOST: And we come on the air this week to a major shake-up in the race for the White House. A brand new poll just released by "The Des Moines Register" shows Ted Cruz blowing by Donald Trump in the key first state of Iowa.
There you see the numbers. Cruz now at 31 percent, 10 points ahead of Trump. The third outsider in this race, Dr. Ben Carson, falling hard from his first place showing in October.
He joins us live in a moment.
But we begin with more on this stunning poll and a defining week in this campaign from Jon Karl at the White House -- good morning, Jon.
JONATHAN KARL, ABC NEWS CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, George.
It is just 50 days until the Iowa Caucuses and while Donald Trump still has a commanding lead everywhere else, he is losing badly to Ted Cruz in the state that gets to go -- vote first. And Republican leaders are gunning for him everywhere else.
KARL (voice-over): Is this the week Republican Party came undone?
DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: It was pretty brutal four days ago for Trump.
KARL: On Monday, Donald Trump announced his most outrageous and controversial plan yet.
TRUMP: Donald J. Trump is calling for a total and complete shutdown of Muslims entering the United States until our country's representatives can figure out what the hell is going on?
KARL: Party leaders denounced the proposal as not just wrong, but un-American.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: What was proposed yesterday is not what this party stands for, and more importantly, it's not what this country stands for.
KARL: Every candidate in the race not named Trump opposed the plan. Jeb Bush even called Trump "unhinged."
TRUMP: I'm not one of these other guys that goes down. I don't go down, I go up.
CHRIS WALLACE, HOST: Do you have a warning for GOP leaders?
TRUMP: I say, folks, you know, I'm sorry I did this to you, but you've got to get used to it. It's one of those little problems in life.
KARL: But now the latest poll out of Iowa shows that Senator Ted Cruz is taking the top spot in the Hawkeye State, 10 points ahead of Trump.
A Trump ally in public, Cruz was caught on tape obtained by "The New York Times" questioning whether Trump has the judgment to be president.
SEN. TED CRUZ (R-TX), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Who am I comfortable having their finger on the button?
Now that's a question of strength, but it's also a question of judgment.
KARL: That prompted Trump to take this subtle swipe at Cruz.
TRUMP: I do like Ted Cruz, but not a lot of Evangelicals come out of Cuba, in all fairness. It's true.
KARL: Ben Carson threatened to leave the party after "The Washington Post" reported that GOP leaders discussed whether Trump can be stopped at the party's convention.
BEN CARSON (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I think the party should not be doing anything that is deceptive and under the covers and that thwarts the will of the people.
KARL: A party in disarray setting the stage for the last Republican debate in 2015, just two days away.
(END VIDEO TAPE)
KARL: Trump's Iowa problem has been brewing for some time. Back in October, it was Ben Carson who was beating him in Iowa. And back then, if you remember, George, Trump responded by asking how stupid are the people of Iowa?
It turns out that perhaps insulting the voters of the state may not be the best way to win them over.
STEPHANOPOULOS: OK, Jon, thanks.
Let's get more on this now from the woman who conducted the poll, Ann Selzer from "The Des Moines Register" and Bloomberg.
And Miss. Selzer, thank you for joining us.
You've been polling in Iowa for decades. Your poll has a strong track record.
Have you ever seen a surge like this?
ANN SELZER, "DES MOINES REGISTER"/BLOOMBERG: You know, we went back and looked at that the last five caucus cycles, trying to see if we'd ever seen a jump this big. And while we have seen roller coaster rides in other caucuses, we've never seen a spike like this for a candidate.
STEPHANOPOULOS: You know, Trump has actually gone up, just not as much as Cruz. So does Cruz is in play...
SELZER: That's right.
STEPHANOPOULOS: -- is his play nice strategy, is that paying off?
What else is behind this surge?
SELZER: Well, the play nice strategy may be paying off. He is also doing the ground work with the Evangelical conservative community. He got some key endorsements in the past week and it may be that he's now that candidate that people look for to coalesce around.
STEPHANOPOULOS: And you've got some numbers behind the numbers that really show how strong Ted Cruz is doing right now.
STEPHANOPOULOS: It's something called the Selzer Index?
SELZER: The Selzer Score. And we created it because the field is so big that just looking at the horse race didn't give enough information about potential for candidates to get stronger than they would appear in that horse race.
Ted Cruz's number is huge in that -- in our Selzer Score. And what that shows is that he may not have hit his ceiling yet. There's more upside, there are more people who think that he would be a good second choice if he's not their first. And there's a large group of people who say they would -- could see themselves ever supporting him.
We add all of that together into an index, we call it the Selzer Score.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Yes, and if you add his first and second place choice, I think it's at 51 percent right now.
SELZER: Yes, 51 percent.
STEPHANOPOULOS: What happened to Ben Carson?
SELZER: Ben Carson has -- has just sort of rolled down a hill, it seems, that he didn't have a strong debate performance, things turned to foreign policy. He's just not one of the people that people can find a strength to hold onto that makes him stronger than Cruz on any of the measures that we took a look at.
STEPHANOPOULOS: OK, Ann Selzer, thanks very much for coming in this morning.
A fascinating poll.
Let's go now to Dr. Ben Carson. He joins us this morning from Florida.
You've seen those poll numbers, Dr. Carson. What do you think went wrong?
CARSON: Well, you know, poll numbers go up and down. I wasn't -- I wasn't excited when they were up. I'm not excited when they were down. You know, this is a very fluid contest. And it's the reason that we have it. We have opportunities for people to listen carefully, you know, not to listen to the spin, but, actually to listen to what's being said.
And, you know, the people will make the correct choice, I hope.
STEPHANOPOULOS: You know, Ted Cruz thinks he does know what went wrong. In that tape we she would in the -- in the piece, he not only went after Donald Trump, but he also questioned what voters are thinking about you.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
CRUZ: Who is prepared to be a commander-in-chief? Who understands the threats we face? Who am I comfortable having their finger on the button. Now that's a question of strength, but it's also a question of judgment. And I think that is a question that is a challenging question for voters.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
STEPHANOPOULOS: How do you respond to that analysis from Ted Cruz?
CARSON: Well, you know, we've all had different types of experiences. There's no question as I haven't spent a lot of time schmoozing and asking for big money and going to cocktail parties, but I've spent many a night in the operating room, cold, sterile place with a little child's life on the line working very hard to preserve that.
You know, it's a very different kind of experience. Lots of 2:00 a.m. in the morning calls and making snap decisions on what needs to be done.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Excuse me, for a second, sir, do you think that's the extent of Ted Cruz's experience -- schmoozing, going to cocktail parties with donors?
CARSON: Well, I think he has a different kind of experience, more of a politician's experience. And I have a healer's experience. And it's a different kind of experience.
And the fact of the matter is, you know, I've had a lot of experience in corporate America, have worked with a lot of CEOs. And one of the things I recognize is that a good CEO doesn't necessarily know everything, but he gets a lot of people around him. He has a vice president of HR, of finance, of mergers and acquisition, et cetera, and uses them in an appropriate way.
There is no way that I, or anybody else, who is running is an expert in every area, there's no question about that. But do you know how to use the people around you, do you have wisdom and judgment? And that is demonstrated by the life that you've led.
STEPHANOPOULOS: But, you know, you've been making that point for several weeks now. It doesn't seem to be working. Your poll numbers continue to fall. Are you going to try something different?
CARSON: No. I will hopefully -- you know, people will determine at some point do we want to continue down the road that we have been going down for a long period of time? Or are we going to stop.
You know, when it comes to experience in congress, you've got almost 9,000 years worth of it. I don't know that that is really the correct answer, at least that kind of experience.
STEPHANOPOULOS: And, you know, you had some strong words for party leaders on Friday, responding to that story in the Washington Post that Jon Karl mentioned. It said that they'd come together to discuss appropriate convention strategy and to stop someone like Trump, or perhaps you, and you then put out a statement saying if this was the beginning of a plan to subvert the will of the voters, replace it with the will of the political elite, I assure you Donald Trump will not be the only one leaving the party.
Are you prepared to make good on that threat?
CARSON: Well, one of the reasons that I got into this is because I heard the frustration in the people who are so tired of back room deals, of subterfuge, of dishonesty. And, you know, if that is the case then you know I'm out of here.
Now I have subsequently spoken to Reince Priebus. He told me those are routine meetings. They have them all the time. This was no different then any of the others, that the last thing that they would do is engage in back room dealing.
But, you know, the jury is out. We'll certainly be keeping a close eye on things.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Lots of this reaction this week to Donald Trump's comments about barring -- banning U.S. entry to Muslims. You said you disagreed with it. Others have gone further. Marco Rubio called it offensive. Jeb Bush said Trump appeared unhinged. Did you find these comments offensive.
CARSON: Well, those are probably not the comments I would have used.
I understand the concept of, you know, not letting people in until they are well screened, I just wouldn't do it on the basis of religion.
But it makes absolutely perfect sense for us to start doing something now and not just let people in.
You know, this whole Syrian thing -- you know, when I was over there, nobody wanted to come here. They wanted to be resettled in their own country. And there are adequate ways to do that. There are adequate ways to take care of them in Jordan.
If we needed to take them, that would be a different story, but taking tens of thousands of them doesn't solve the problem. There's millions of them. That's just a band-aid that makes some people feel good like they've done something.
STEPHANOPOULOS: But your campaign has had some inconsistent statements on this broader issue. On Monday, put out a statement saying everyone visiting our country should register and be monitored during their stay. Then on Tuesday you told Jake Tapper at CNN that idea is ridiculous.
Do you understand how that kind of a flip in just 24 hours might give voters pause?
CARSON: It's not a flip, because you had to listen to what I said when I talked about monitoring. What I said is when I go into another country, they want to know where I'm going, what address I'm going to be staying at, how long I'm supposed to be there, that's what I'm talking about when I'm talking about monitoring. I'm not talking about following them around with the FBI.
STEPHANOPOULOS: You just want them to lay out their itinerary?
CARSON: Yeah. I mean, we should be able to find them. We should know what they're doing here.
STEPHANOPOULOS: But won't a terrorist just lie?
CARSON: Well, again, we're going to have to be a little smarter. I mean, you've probably seen some of the questions that they ask in the screening: have you ever been a terrorist, are you planning a terrorist attack, you know, have you been trained with tactical -- give me a break. I mean, you know, we have to -- why don't we go to the Israelis and ask them how they do it? Why do we have to reinvent the wheel.
STEPHANOPOULOS: You have said that you do not believe that Islam is consistent with the constitution. What did you mean by that?
CARSON: If you accept all the premises, including Sharia, you know, which places women in a subservient position, which places other religions in a subservient position, which you know imposes things like death on homosexuals and people with sexual deviations, et cetera.
You know, these things are not consistent with the American constitution.
So, if somebody, you know, believes in Islam and they're willing to reject those portions openly I don't have a problem with that, but if they're not willing to reject them, then it is not consistent with what we're doing here.
And you have to do is go back to the holy land foundation trial. And look at the explanatory memorandum that was brought up there that shows what the agenda of the Muslim Brotherhood in America is. People need to know this stuff.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Dr. Carson, thanks very much for your time this morning.
Coming up, our powerhouse roundtable weighs in on the Ted Cruz surge, that talk of a brokered convention for the GOP, and why countries around the world are voting for populists like Trump. And after that, the first ever global deal on climate change. America's chief negotiator, Secretary of State John Kerry is up next.
STEPHANOPOULOS: We will be right back with Secretary of State John Kerry fresh off negotiating that history climate agreement in Paris.
STEPHANOPOULOS: History made in Paris yesterday as nearly 200 nations approved the first global agreement on climate change. The Paris accord will aim to limit global temperature increases and their catastrophic consequences by curbing greenhouse gas emissions, cutting the use of fossil fuels.
President Obama gave the agreement an emphatic endorsement in a rare Saturday evening statement from the White House.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: The targets we've set are bold and by empowering businesses, scientists, engineers, workers and the private sector, investors, to work together, this agreement represents the best chance we've had to save the one planet that we've got.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
STEPHANOPOULOS: And we're joined now by Obama's chief negotiator, the secretary of State, John Kerry.
Mr. Secretary, thank you for joining us.
Pretty remarkable to get 195 nations to agree on anything. But the agreement does have significant critics, too. James Hansen, the NASA scientist who many see as the godfather of the movement to take on climate change said this to "The Guardian."
He said, "It's a fraud, really, a fake. It's just worthless words. There is no action, just promises."
JOHN KERRY, SECRETARY OF STATE: That -- look, I have great respect for Jim Hansen and I was there in 1988 when he first warned everybody climate change was happening.
But with all due respect to him, I understand the criticisms of the agreement because it doesn't have a mandatory scheme and it doesn't have a compliance enforcement mechanism. That's true.
But we have 186 countries, for the first time in history, all submitting independent plans that they have laid down, which are real, for reducing emissions.
And what it does, in my judgment, more than anything else, there is a uniform standard of transparency. And therefore, we will know what everybody is doing.
The result will be a very clear signal to the marketplace of the world that people are moving into low carbon, no carbon, alternative renewable energy. And I think it's going to create millions of jobs, enormous new investment in R&D, and that R&D is going to produce the solutions, not government.
STEPHANOPOULOS: As you know, there are no sanctions. This is -- it is not legally binding, in part, because the U.S. couldn't get a treaty through the Senate. And the Senate majority leader, Mitch McConnell, has also weighed in quite strongly already, Mr. -- Mr. Secretary.
He's saying that before the president's international partners pop the champagne, they should remember that this is an unattainable deal based on a domestic energy plan that is likely illegal, that half the states have sued to halt and that Congress has already voted to reject.
So can this deal actually be implemented absent a consensus in the United States?
KERRY: Well, there is a consensus in the United States among the American people and among mayors across the nation, all of whom are already -- many of whom, excuse me -- but those that -- all of them that have joined the mayors conference with respect to climate reductions.
And the fact is, the United States of America has already reduced its emissions more than any other country in the world.
And it's done so through various means, by raising the efficiency standards on automobiles, by engaging in R&D and deployment of new technologies. And the president has made it very, very clear that he's committed to this and this agreement really came about significantly due to American leadership, with President Obama engaging with China, coming to an agreement with the two largest economies, the two largest emitters, saying they were going to join together to put out their reductions.
And that spurred 184 other countries to step up.
So this is significant. I mean what do -- what do members of Congress think when leaders of major countries around the world are actually stepping up to do these things? these are not...
STEPHANOPOULOS: But Mr. Secretary...
KERRY: -- you know, these guys aren't making up the science or the plans to -- to do it. And I think -- I think, frankly, a lot of members of Congress are on the wrong side of history. And I don't believe you can be elected president of the United States if you don't understand climate change or you're not committed to this kind of a plan.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Well, that's what I wanted to get to. Most of the Republicans running for president said they would not have attended the Paris talks, would not have led, and they vowed to undo the president's executive actions.
STEPHANOPOULOS: So if President Obama's successor is against it, will it unravel?
KERRY: Well, obviously, if a Republican were elected they have the ability, by executive order, to undo things, the answer is yes. But that's why I don't believe the American people, who predominantly do believe in what is happening with climate change, I don't think they're going to accept as a genuine leader someone who doesn't understand the science of climate change and isn't willing to do something about it.
You know, we had eight storms last year which cost America well more than 8 -- 8 -- than a billion dollars per storm. It's far cheaper to recognize what's coming and cure the problem ahead of time.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Finally, Mr. Secretary, Donald Trump's comments about banning the entry of Muslims into the United States rocking around the world this -- this week.
How have his comments affected America's standing in the world?
And do you agree with your colleagues in the administration who said they are endangering national security?
KERRY: Well, it does endanger national security because it exhibits an attitude by one American who is running for the highest office of our land, about a willingness to discriminate against a religion. I mean that is against our "Constitution" and it's against who we are as Americans.
We have all kinds of ways of protecting protections into the programs by which people come into our nation.
But to outright ban people because they belong to one particular religion, that's just stunningly contrary to the fundamental values of our nation, which were built on tolerance.
In the House of Representatives, on one of those panels of the dais, where a president speaks from to deliver "The State of the Union," inscribed in that panel is the word "tolerance." And it seems to me that Mr. Trump's statement is wholly and totally without recognition of the true American spirit and values and certainly tolerance.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Thank you, Mr. Secretary.
We're going to have a lot more on that ahead.
Our chief foreign correspondent, on how the world is reacting to Trump.
And our powerhouse roundtable weighs in on all the week's politics.
STEPHANOPOULOS: All kinds of talk this week about a brokered convention for the GOP, but can the political junkies pipe dream really happen? Our experts weigh in next.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Donald Trump's words have sent shockwaves far beyond our borders. World leaders reacting. His business is taking a hit. There's even a petition circulating in the UK, nearly 600,000 signatures, that would ban Trump from traveling to England. But as our chief foreign correspondent Terry Moran reports, politicians across the developed world have also been echoing Trump's unvarnished populism.
TERRY MORAN, ABC NEWS CORRESPONDENT: That's Donald Trump's theme song, Dee Snyder's "We're Not Gonna Take It." It's the essence of his anti-establishment appeal.
But Trump is not alone. In country after country, populist leaders are gaining ground, like Marine Le Pen in France who is soaring in the polls with a Trumpian brew of anti-immigration policies and nationalism.
In Hungary, Prime Minister Viktor Orban is sounding the same theme. And he's building a razor wire fence to keep Syrian refugees from flowing in.
In Britain, there's Nigel Farage of the small UK Independence Party.
But none have gone as far as Trump.
TRUMP: Donald J. Trump is calling for a total and complete shutdown of Muslims entering the United States.
MORAN: That extremist proposal Trump unveiled this week shocked people around the world. In London...
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It's not right. It's not fair to millions of people, not just me.
MORAN: In the West Bank.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The United States was built and founded based on immigrants.
MORAN: In Paris.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I think it is ridiculous.
MORAN: In Dubai, they tore his name and face off a billboard at his golf course there.
And British Prime Minister David Cameron called Trump's idea divisive, unhelpful, and quite simply wrong.
U.S. officials and many others worry that Trump's proposal plays right into the hands of ISIS who will use it for recruitment.
Trump's Muslim ban was thrown into sharp relief Friday as Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau greeted a plane load of Syrian refugees.
JUSTIN TRUDEAU, CANADIAN PRIME MINISTER: You are home.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Thank you.
TRUDEAU: Welcome home.
MORAN: But so far, being the Republican establishment's nightmare.
TRUMP: The establishment has got a problem.
MORAN: Is working just fine for Donald Trump with Republican voters.
TRUMP: For this week, Terry Moran, ABC News, London.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Talk about this now with Bill Kristol, editor-in-chief of the Weekly Standard, Nancy Gibbs editor-in-chief of TIME, David Brody from the Christian Broadcasting Network and Robyn Wright foreign correspondent with “The New Yorker”, also with the Woodrow Wilson Center and now at U.S. Institute for Peace.
And Robyn, let's begin with this. I think you've reported from several dozen, more than 100 countries around the world. It does seem that Donald Trump, eve as the establishment is against him, is tapping into some very real anger and anxiety across the globe.
ROBYN WRIGHT, “THE NEW YORKER”: Oh, I think there's deep anxiety and fear in the aftermath of the Islamic State and then the rippling effect, whether it's Paris or San Bernadino, of extremist acts. But there's also astonishment at the kind of statements coming out of American politicians, that there would be such xenophobia, such racism, such outrageous discrimination against a whole people for the acts of a very small group of individuals.
And it ironically comes at a time that we need the world to act together more than ever. As reflected in Paris at the climate change conference.
There are these big issues in an era of globalization that the United States needs other partners, needs some sense of a common good, and yet there is more divisiveness today in terms of a religion, race, all forms of identity and nationalism.
STEPHANOPOULOS: And Nancy Gibbs, editor of TIME. You made TIME's Person of the Year -- Donald Trump was a finalist, but he didn't get it, beat out by someone standing up to the kind of forces he's been riling up, Angela Merkel there of Germany.
Donald Trump didn't like that one bit. He said TIME magazine would never pick me as Person of the Year despite being the big favorite, they picked the person who is ruining Germany.
NANCY GIBBS, TIME: I wouldn't expert him to approve the choice, but a year from now if he's been elected president we'll found out how he would actually handle a crisis as opposed to how he would talk about handling it.
Merkel has faced multiple times this year fundamental threats to the future of Europe, the global economy, the migrant crisis, now the terrorist attacks and has had to make, actually make really hard decisions and act on them. There's a big difference between people running for office and people in office. So I think this pick will uphold over time.
STEPHANOPOULOS: And the question is will Donald Trump's comments uphold over time, Bill Kristol. No question that every one of his statements that people think are inflammatory, think have gone over the line, tend to be giving him strength.
You still believe in the long run this hurts him.
BILL KRISTOL, WEEKLY STANDARD: Yeah, because I don't think Republicans are going to nominate someone who says things that are foolish and inflammatory and irresponsible. Having said that, I do think one can also say that no Obama, no Trump. I mean, President Obama gives a speech Sunday night that just seems oblivious to the actual threat and the bulk of the speech is telling us we to be very kind to Muslims both at home and abroad. And no real acknowledgment of I would say of why people have legitimate fears and that his foreign policies might have failed and having 300,000 dead in Syria and Islamic State is a bit of a problem for the west. And no reconsideration of his policies.
Then today's New York Times, not a right-wing organ, hit the Department of Homeland Security didn't screen the Facebook posts of the murderer in San Bernardino...
STEPHANOPOULOS: It's hard to believe.
KRISTOL: ...they didn't do it. And incidentally, there was a debate within the Department of Homeland Security as to whether it would be appropriate to do so.
Now if that is what Donald Trump says political correctness is endangering us, here is the evidence.
STEPHANOPOULOS: And David Brody, you've studied the evangelical community a lot and reported on them in Iowa across the country. You think that Donald Trump did tap into something there as well.
DAVID BRODY, CHRISTIAN BROADCASTING NETWORK: I don't think there's any questions about.
Look, I mean Donald Trump is around. He's got staying power. He's at what 18, 19 percent of evangelical vote in Iowa. If you go around the country, I mean he's a player. And he's a player with evangelicals.
I think, George, that you know evangelicals see the world in absolutes, biblical absolutes for sure. Donald Trump sees the world in absolutes as well. And I think there is a kinship there, there's a Dr. Phil moment, if you will. There's something going on between evangelicals and Donald Trump. And I think it's not just that, but I think he's bringing up this sensitive topic of Islam. It is a tier A issue with evangelicals. And it resonates.
STEPHANOPOULOS: We're seeing that. At the same time, we have that new poll we talked about at the top of the show in Iowa right now. Ted Cruz who has just surged to the top in Iowa. And Bill Kristol, you've covered these caucuses for a long time as well. He does have the profile of the Republican candidate -- of Republican candidates in the past who have won in Iowa.
KRISTOL: Yeah, I was in Iowa last week and I kind of felt that Cruz was having a pretty good run. And I ran into a fair number of people admittedly not mostly Trump supporters who said, you know, people have been intrigued by Trump. There's -- he's saying things they're happy to have someone say, but at the end of the day they will not stand up in a caucus or not as many of them as we think will stand up in a caucus of people.
Now he's been steady at 20 percent, basically if you look at the Des Moines Register poll I think.
STEPHANOPOULOS: He actually went up a couple of points.
KRISTOL: Yeah, yeah, 23, 19, 21 in the last three. That's probably I would guess what he will get.
Ted Cruz is serious. Ted Cruz -- the irony is the Washington establishment probably hates Ted Cruz more than Donald Trump, but Ted Cruz is a lot more likely to be the nominee, I think.
WRIGHT: You know, that Iowa poll also found that a majority of Trump supporters don't think he has the temperament to be president. So right now we're still talking about protests. Iowa tends to break very late. And it's true that what has happened with Cruz is fascinating, but I think we are still quite a number of weeks away from knowing what's really going to happen in Iowa.
STEPHANOPOULOS: As you've pointed out, there's been a different leader every month in...
GIBBS: Absolutely. We've gone -- you know, Carson, Trump and now Cruz. And I think we have 11 months to go until the election. And the vote -- first vote happens early in the new year, but I think with all these -- the different kind of pull and tug and that the issues have changed so much in the last few months in terms of what defines what people want. We've suddenly gone from economic issues to national security issues. And that is one of the reasons Ben Carson has...
STEPHANOPOULOS: But the consistent strain over the last few months is that they want someone who is not affiliated with the establishment.
BRODY: Well, that's right. And also if you look at some of the polling -- terrorism, the number one polling issue. Donald Trump plays to that. And he plays well to that.
And you know, in politics it's all about a narrative being crafted. And you know Donald Trump came into this race with a narrative. And that is he's the $10 billion success guy that knows how to make the art of the deal. And they believe that that somehow, some way can translate into the terrorism realm potentially you know coming through with some victories here.
KRISTOL: Here's an important point, Robyn mentioned...
WRIGHT: He only has one liners, he has no policy. And at some point, he has to be more serious and deliberate...
KRISTOL: Well, that's why Cruz, I think is underrated as a finalist and as a possible nominee.
Look, as Robyn mentioned correctly, Cruz, Trump and Carson, what is their total vote in the Iowa poll right now, 65, 65 percent. Bush, Rubio and Christie together I think 19 or 21 or something like that. I mean, everyone on the establishment side thinks, well, once the establishment comes together, you know, then of course the establishment candidates, presumably Rubio or possibly Christie, beats Ted Cruz and Trump. But I don't know, Iowa is a little more conservative state I will grant, but if you go down the calendar, you can right a scenario where the -- I don't think Trump makes it, but I think Ted Cruz is more serious than people think.
STEPHANOPOULOS: I totally agree with it. Firstly, he's raised more money than anyone besides Jeb Bush. He's organized in the southern states that vote on March 1. He wins in Iowa, Donald Trump does well in New Hampshire, you're setting up the scenario that I think will have -- even thought that meeting, it happened in Washington with -- they talked about a brokered convention what's far less than reported. That will have a lot of people nervous at the top ranks of the Republican Party.
GIBBS: Well, it's an old rule that he who frames the race wins. And this is where Trump is so helpful to Cruz. He's framed it as being a race about who can stand up to Washington. Cruz can say he talks about it. I've done it. Cruz wears Washington hostility like a badge of honor.
STEPHANOPOULOS: How real is the talk about a brokered convention.
BRODY: I think it's relatively real. And what I mean by that. I mean, if you think about it from a plausibility standpoint, you have Marco Rubio who potentially could be in the mix here if GOP establishment folks get behind him. You have Donald Trump who is not going away any time soon, because he has, I don't know, about $10 billion or so.
STEPHANOPOULOS: If he decides to spend it.
BRODY: If he decides to spend it.
Plus, he's got a lot of stable support behind him. And then you have Ted Cruz who, as Bill pointed out, very well organized grass roots wise.
So, you can literally see this coming down to where no one has got the delegates on the first ballot.
KRISTOL: And Chris Christie, I think can make a run. I think if you think of the...
STEPHANOPOULOS: He's moving up in New Hampshire, right.
KRISTOL: The person who falls off of Trump, who wants someone who is experienced and tough, who has prosecuted terrorists -- I mean, if I'm Christie I stand up in the debate tonight and say, you've got two inexperienced Senators, nice guys, Cruz and Rubio, we just tried an inexperienced first term senator. That's not so great. We've got an older guy who is also inexperienced and just shoots off his mouth and is reckless. I'm the guy who could actually be a solid...
STEPHANOPOULOS: ...well in the debates so far.
KRISTOL: So, I think there's a little bit of a Christie scenario maybe.
WRIGHT: Yeah, I have a question, though, to what degree is the Republican establishment out of sync with the rest of the body politic?
KRISTOL: Totally. 100 percent. The Republican dinner where they wailed and plotted about this brokered convention at an Asian fusion restaurant in Washington called The Source -- very nice place and they had -- I think the main thing they had to discuss is should they get the three course or the five course tasting menu.
WRIGHT: Well, the whole idea of a brokered conference is you just wonder if we are not going to know until the very end where we're headed.
BRODY: This has been going on for awhile. You know, the Tea Party, evangelicals, you know there's this whole idea between GOP establishment and what I call the Teavangelicals, this group of Tea Party and evangelical folks that are trying to not co-opt, but take over the party. And this is the issue.
STEPHANOPOULOS: We'll see. Thank you all very much.
Up next, two leading American Muslims speak out on the threat their community is facing. And what Muslims can do to combat radicalism in their ranks.
STEPHANOPOULOS: The San Bernardino massacre and the debate stirred up by Donald Trump has focused attention and new threats on America's Muslim community. There you see a mosque in California victimized by arson, one of dozens of mosques targeted this year. And two offices of The Council on American-Islamic Relations had to be evacuated this week, after suspicious powders were sent to their offices.
Here to talk about these threats and what America's Muslim community can do to combat the radicalization of young Muslims is Nihad Awad, the executive director of CAIR, and Indiana Congressman Andre Carson, one of two Muslim members of Congress.
Welcome to you both.
And Mr. Awad let me begin with you.
What has been the fallout in your community since San Bernardino, since the -- the comments of Donald Trump?
NIHAD AWAD, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, CAIR: Good morning, George.
As you can tell, the Muslim community is extremely concerned about the -- the violent backlash against its members, against its institutions. As you have seen just moments ago, a mosque that was firebombed last Friday, quite a few violent attacks have been taking place against the individual Muslims. Hate messages, death threats like our two offices were evacuated, the one in Washington, DC and in Santa Clara, because of suspicious powder that we received was a death threat on it.
So luckily everyone is safe and the matter is being investigated by the FBI.
So, yes, there is a sense of anxiety. And this comes, you know, at the -- at the -- in the background of the anti-Muslim sentiment that has been, unfortunately, fueled by Donald Trump and his likes from -- from his platform.
STEPHANOPOULOS: But Congressman Carson, you've heard Senator Rubio this week, in the wake of Donald Trump's comments, saying there's no widespread discrimination against the American Muslims.
REP. ANDRE CARSON (D), INDIANA: That's untrue. I mean we live in an age where politicians are awarded for saying provocative things. You've seen cross tabs. You've seen poll numbers. When -- when these politicians make these inflammatory remarks, they're rewarded by higher polling results.
The facts are clear. Muslims have been a part of this country since the inception of this country. They're in our law enforcement community. I come from -- I think I'm the only member of Congress who has ever worked in an intelligence fusion center.
They're judges. My father-in-law was the first Muslim judge. They're engineers. Go to any major hospital and you'll find a Muslim physician.
The facts are clear, George. There are over eight million Muslims in this country who are making contributions to our society. And anyone who wants to be the commander-in-chief has to know that and accept this reality.
STEPHANOPOULOS: But there's also a real fear out there right now.
What do you say to Americans -- the majority in polls show that -- a majority of Americans believe that Islam is inconsistent with American values, that they have an unfavorable view of Islam.
What is -- what is -- what do those people need to know, in your view?
A. CARSON: They need to know that there are numerous terrorist attempts that are thwarted weekly almost and they're thwarted because Muslims are working behind the scenes, helping to keep Americans safe.
Look at our -- look at our jobs numbers. There are Muslim businessmen and women who are starting business and guess what, George?
They're putting Americans back to work. Americans should know that not only is Islam a religion of peace, but Muslims are here and a valuable part of your society.
STEPHANOPOULOS: A question Mr. Awad, though, is what do you do about the problem of radicalization in your community?
George Washington University put out a report called "ISIS In America." And it says that ISIS-related mobilization in the United States has been unprecedented. As of the fall of 2015, U.S. authorities speak of some 250 Americans who’ve targeted or attempted to travel to Syria, Iraq to join the Islamic State, and 900 active investigations against ISIS sympathizers in all fifty states. And the number of young men who’ve been arrested on ISIS-related charges has doubled in the last year.
AWAD: As Congressman Carson has said, there are half a million Muslims in the united States. American Muslims are not the problem. Forty percent of the terrorists plots were foiled by the contribution and involvement of the American Muslim families and members.
And also let’s look at the bigger picture. ISIS wants us to be afraid. ISIS wants to divide us. What ISIS wants us to be afraid of one another. And unfortunately the bigger picture is the fact that we have 355 mass shootings in 2015 alone, and we see disproportionate media and political attention given to the acts of few thugs related to ISIS in the United States but not the 350 mass shootings, which means more than one mass shooting per day happened in the United States. Many happened at the hands of people who are not of the Islamic faith, but unfortunately we are giving a lot of credit to ISIS and to their recruited individuals, who are very few in the United States.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Congressman Carson?
A. CARSON: I totally agree with Nihad. I mean, if -- I just saw a report where the white supremacist group Stormfront, this has been a call to action, the rhetoric that we’re seeing. It concerns me. I think that most of our largest domestic threat comes from racial supremacist groups. I’ve worked in counterterrorism; I know this to be a fact.
What we have to understand is that we live -- we’re living in the time where there’s a restoration movement taking place. People want to take us back to some mythological good ol’ days, and there are elected officials who are capitalizing on this sentiment. We will see next year, the American people are very intelligent, they will push back on this kind of rhetoric because it’s very dangerous. Mr. Trump -- I’ve met Mr. Trump, I’ve read most of his books -- he’s a smart man. Which is why his rhetoric is that much more dangerous and we have to push back, George.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Gentlemen, thank you both very much.
A. CARSON: Thank you.
STEPHANOPOULOS: When we come back, it was a rocky week on Wall Street. So what’s ahead for the markets and the economy in 2016? The editor-in-chief of “The Wall Street Journal” joins us next after this from our ABC station.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MARTIN O’MALLEY (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I’m not going to do a Donald Trump.
HILLARY CLINTON (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: It’s not only shameful; it’s dangerous.
O’MALLEY: America’s looking for a new leader.
CLINTON: I’m not taking a backseat to anybody.
SEN. BERNIE SANDERS (I-VT), DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: People are sick and tired of hearing about your damn e-mails!
CLINTON: I will continue to speak out.
SANDERS: I want to talk to you about the real issues.
O’MALLEY: I’ve been doing things that actually work.
CLINTON: What’s good for women is good for America.
O’MALLEY: I am running for you!
SANDERS: Let’s transform America!
CLINTON: I will not be silenced.
ANNOUNCER: The Democrats debate, live from New Hampshire, Saturday night only on ABC.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
STEPHANOPOULOS: Huge drop on Wall Street this week, the Dow down more than 300 points on Friday, putting stock markets in the red for 2015. And the tumble comes just before the Federal Reserve’s expected hike in interest rates this week, the first in nearly a decade.
Joining us now to analyze these moves, what to expect from markets and the economy in the presidential election year ahead, the editor-in-chief of “The Wall Street Journal”, Gerard Baker, and our own chief economics correspondent Rebecca Jarvis.
And that bow -- this week, Rebecca, plunging oil prices had a lot to do with the stock market dropping.
REBECCA JARVIS, ABC NEWS CHIEF ECONOMICS CORRESPONDENT: Absolutely, George. And here's the problem with plunging oil prices. First of all, what it says about the global economy. It says that the global economy is demanding less oil. That can mean that the global economy is getting weaker.
Second of all, it drags down energy companies, down 6.5 percent this week. And energy companies, the energy sector in this country has the weakest job growth. In fact, they've had the most layoffs of any sector in this country over the last year, 100,000 jobs lost.
And these are companies that have a lot of debt. Being able to pay that debt back going forward relies on oil prices going up.
STEPHANOPOULOS: And "The Wall Street Journal" this week highlighted a problem that we certainly heard a lot about in the past, junk bonds.
GERARD BAKER, “THE WALL STREET JOURNAL”: Right. So junk bonds are the bonds of companies that are not so highly rated. They're companies that are not the kind of blue chip companies, but they're ones that -- that represent a higher risk for investors.
The reason they've been important is that people -- they offer a higher yield when you buy a bond, in other words, and you lend money to one of those companies, because they're a riskier -- a riskier proposition, they have to pay a higher rate of interest.
Now, when interest rates generally have been so low, as they have, at 0, the Federal Reserve has been keeping rates at 0, then those junk bonds, those -- those high yield bonds actually look quite attractive.
So over the last couple of years, investors have been piling into those bonds, liking what they see, liking the yield they get. They've unfortunately put a lot of -- so much money into those bonds, and especially into companies, as Rebecca says, in the energy sector, that are now starting to struggle. They're struggling because there's a huge imbalance in the world economy between supply of energy and the demand for energy.
And those -- those -- those bonds of those companies that have been for -- that have been producing such a high yield are starting to fall in price significantly. And that represents a real risk for investors.
STEPHANOPOULOS: And, you know, nearly everyone is expecting the Fed to raise rates this week. But they're still in a delicate spot. And they've been a little resistant to going too far.
BAKER: Yes, they are. They've been -- look, the Fed hasn't raise rates -- interest rates since 2006. They've held interest rates at 0 for the last -- and since the -- since just after the financial crisis, an unprecedented period.
Some parts of the world, rates are actually negative. If you have a mortgage in Europe, the bank sends you a check each month to represent the interest it pays on it.
We're in an extraordinary position of globally low interest rates.
Now, the U.S. economy is growing. It's not growing very fast, but unemployment has come down. The Fed is in a position where the economy is growing at a rate now that it thinks it needs to start pushing interest rates back up.
But it's been this massive interest -- a massive monetary stimulus, these low interest rates, the huge demand that the U -- that the Federal Reserve has been pushing into the economy that's been helping the economy for so long.
So people are worried that when the Fed takes that away, what's going to be left?
STEPHANOPOULOS: So more jobs on the market this week.
JARVIS: What happens when we lose the training wheels, that's the question, George.
And certainly this week, there will be volatility. Last week, we saw the fear index, the Volatility Index, spike to the highest level since we saw over the summer, when we saw a lot of volatility.
And everyone's eyes will be on the Federal Reserve. And that's because we're heading into uncharted territory. We haven't been in this position, as you say, for the last decade. And now we're going into this new phase, where the training wheels come off the economy, and what happens next?
There's still huge question marks. No one knows the answer to this question.
STEPHANOPOULOS: And, you know, we've had several years now of job creation, a long and slow recovery, heading into this presidential election year, no factor is going to be more important than the economy.
Do you think the recovery continues or is it losing storm?
BAKER: You know, this recovery has been in the -- in place now for six and a half years. The average length of an expansion in the post-Second World War period has been just over five years.
So this is long in the tooth, this -- this expansion, by historic standards.
So there's every reason to think that the odds of a recession in the next couple of years are rising significantly. And with China very -- showing weak growth, with these huge drops in commodity prices, energy prices, and with a -- with an economy that remains -- that has not really shown significant signs of growth over the last couple of years, I think the risks of recession are rising significantly.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Thank you both very much for your time this morning.
And in THIS WEEK'S Sunday Spotlight, Gloria Steinem. The women's rights pioneer has just released her first book in more than 20 years, "My Life on the Road."
And she sat down with our own pathbreaker, Cokie Roberts, for a look back at 50 years of change in feminism and journalism.
COKIE ROBERTS, ABC NEWS CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Gloria Steinem, loved and hated by millions, grew up in a world modern Americans wouldn't recognize. Women were legally denied jobs and credit and shut out of prominent positions.
But instead of accepting that world, she led a movement to change it.
GLORIA STEINEM, AUTHOR: I thought that I absolutely had to get married and have children and lead my husband's life. And courtesy of all the women who were speaking out about different kinds of lives, I realized I was actually happy. And not everybody has to live the same way.
ROBERTS: Well, you now see people who are still having those -- those kinds of arguments.
I mean does it wear you out to see what people call the mommy wars?
STEINEM: It does drive me crazy, because what about daddies?
ROBERTS: There are daddies, yes. Right. And that's particularly true in the political world.
So a female candidate is asked who's going to take care of the children and a male candidate is never ever asked that question.
STEINEM: Yes, absolutely. And a male candidate is applauded for considering the family and the -- what's going to happen to, you know, deciding whether to run for the Senate or president or something.
If a woman did the same thing, she is often kind of disqualified by that.
ROBERTS: And we're seeing it right now. Paul Ryan saying, as a condition of taking the speakership, that he needed to spend time with his family. And -- and everybody said, oh, isn't that sweet?
STEINEM: Yes, right. I recognize that as progress.
ROBERTS: So though much has changed, much has not.
(voice-over): What about the biggest possible change, a woman president?
Steinem endorsed Hillary Clinton in 2008, but didn't think the country was ready for a female commander-in-chief.
STEINEM: What made me feel that way was actually seeing big grownup friends of ours on -- guys in the media, who are perfectly serious people, saying things like, about Hillary Clinton, I cross my legs whenever I see her, she reminds me of my first wife standing outside alimony court.
Looking at a powerful woman made them feel they had been regressed to childhood, because the last time they saw a really powerful woman, they were eight. So they behaved like eight.
ROBERTS: So do you think 2016, the country is ready for a woman commander-in-chief?
STEINEM: Yes, I -- I do. I think it's going to be hell.
ROBERTS (voice-over): But it's a challenge Gloria Steinem is ready to take on for her candidate, as she's taken on so many others for the women who've come after her.
I asked if she thought young women understood what it took to make it possible for them to have the choices they now do.
STEINEM: I wouldn't demand gratitude.
ROBERTS: Well, I would like a little, but the...
STEINEM: Well, I think it's really helpful, I mean I -- to know what happened in the past. It helps you.
ROBERTS: What's ahead?
STEINEM: That's a great question, because people are asking me these days, what are you most proud of and things like that?
And I always say I haven't done it yet.
STEINEM: I live in the future, you know.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Thanks to Cokie for that.
That is all for us today. Thanks for sharing part of your Sunday with us. We'll be live from New Hampshire next week, after the big Democratic debate.
Check out "WORLD NEWS TONIGHT." And I'll see you tomorrow on "GMA."