Q3 2009: Confidence Drags

Sept. 29, 2009 — -- Three-quarters of the way through 2009 consumer confidence is on pace for its worst full year in 23 years of weekly polls.

The ABC News Consumer Comfort Index stands at -46 on its scale of +100 to -100, same as last week. It's averaged -48 this quarter and the same for the year to date; those compare with -44 across 1992, its worst full year; and -12 on average since this poll began in late 1985.

Click here for PDF with charts and data table.

The quarter's average is very near the worst quarters on record, -50 both in Q4 2008 and Q1 2008. And the index remains within sight of its record low, -54 in January.

Dreary consumer views are countered by other more hopeful signs; the Fed last week said "economic activity has picked up following its severe downturn," new claims for jobless benefits unexpectedly fell by 21,000 last week and home prices are reported up again – the sixth month of improved readings. But it could be a long road for consumers, especially with unemployment so high; it was three years after the technical end of the last deep recession in 1990 to 1991 before the CCI returned to its pre-recession level.

INDEX – The index is based on Americans' ratings of the national economy, their personal finances and the buying climate. For the second straight week 10 percent rate the national economy positively – far from good, but the first time in nearly a year that positive ratings have cracked double digits two weeks in a row. They're 28 points below the long-term average.

Twenty-six percent say it's a good time to buy things, the same as last week and a point from the year's best. But that's 11 points below average and below 30 percent for a record 81 weeks.

Ratings of personal finances, at 45 percent positive, also are the same as last week, below a majority for the 20th straight week and 12 points below their long-term average.

TREND – The CCI has spent the last 10 weeks above -50, hardly a grand achievement but the longest such stretch since summer 2008. It's been below -40 for a record 75 weeks and hasn't seen positive territory since March 2007.