Election-Day Confidence No Better than Last Year

Nov. 3, 2009 — -- A year after Barack Obama was elected president, consumer confidence is as dire now as it was then.

The ABC News Consumer Comfort Index stands at -49 on its scale of +100 to -100, just a point from its level at this time last year. Indeed it's averaged -49 since Obama's election, twice hitting its worst ever (-54 in early December and late January) and never exceeding -42. That compares with a long-term average of -12.

Click here for PDF with charts and data table.

Low consumer confidence could spell trouble for incumbents today – and potentially in 2010 as well. In the long-running fallout from the last deep recession in 1990-91, Democrats in 1994 lost control of Congress for the first time in 42 years.

While the CCI's about the same, the partisan complexion of confidence has changed sharply since the 2008 election; the index among Republicans is down 22 points, to -38; among Democrats, up 15 points to -49. (Still lower among Democrats, who tend to be less well off.) It's remained about the same among independents, -51.

As a result, confidence is less partisan than a year ago – an 11-point gap now vs. 48 points then.

Americans overall seem unimpressed by news of positive Q3 growth in the gross domestic product – an increase for the first time since Q2 2008. With unemployment at 9.8 percent, a 26-year high, improved GDP figures alone are unlikely to improve consumer confidence.

INDEX – The CCI is based on Americans' ratings of the buying climate, their personal finances and the national economy. Ratings of the buying climate are now 24 percent positive, up 3 points from last week's yearly low. Still, positive ratings are 13 points below the long-term average and have been below 30 percent for a record 86 weeks.

Ratings of personal finances, typically the best of the CCI's three measures, are at 42 percent positive, 15 points below average. They've been below a majority for 25 weeks straight and all but two weeks this year.

Positive ratings of the national economy, at 10 percent, have been in double digits for seven consecutive weeks. But at a whopping 28 points below average, they're in terrible shape.