POLL: Confidence Settles in Low Territory
Confidence holding within a tight 2-point range since the beginning of June.
July 1, 2008— -- Consumer confidence stalled this week, unable to break out of its five-week rut as gas prices edged higher.
The ABC News Consumer Comfort Index stands at -43 on its scale of +100 to -100, holding within a tight 2-point range since the beginning of June. But confidence is still in bad shape: It's 33 points below its long-term average in 22 years of weekly polls, and just finished off its worst quarter since the first of 1992. The only glimmer of hope is that it has rebounded slightly from its record low, -51, on May 25.
Consumers have yet to see a break in the deluge of negative economic news. Gasoline prices ticked up two cents to $4.10 a gallon as the holiday weekend approaches, stocks plunged Thursday to a low last hit in September 2006, and U.S. auto sales tumbled with Ford, GM and Toyota all reporting huge declines in June.
INDEX – The CCI is based on Americans' ratings of their current finances, the national economy and the buying climate. Only 15 percent rate the national economy positively, down 16 points in 2008 and 25 points below the long-term average. It's only 8 points off the all-time low of 7 percent, last reached in early 1992.
Just 22 percent say it's a good time to buy things, 3 points off the record low set in May, down 9 points on the year, and 16 points below the long-term average. Less than a quarter of Americans have rated the buying climate positively for 12 weeks straight, the longest period since a run of 14 weeks in late 1991.
As usual more, 49 percent, rate their own finances positively, but that's been less than half for nine weeks, the longest streak since the summer of 1993. It's 7 points off the all-time low from March 1993, down 9 points this year and 8 points below the long-term average.
TREND – Despite the recent pause, the index is miles from where it began the year, -20. It's fallen 23 points since then, hit a record low, -51, at the end of May, and just completed its worst quarter since the first of 1992. Halfway through the year, the CCI has averaged -37, on pace for the worst year since 1993, and has been at or below -40 for 11 weeks. It's not been that low for that long since late 1992.
