POLL: Confidence in Dire Straits Though Pessimism Recedes
Consumer confidence hovered this week very near its record low.
August 19, 2008 — -- Consumer confidence hovered this week very near its record low in weekly ABC News surveys since 1985 – but pessimism about the economy's direction eased sharply, likely because of lower gasoline prices.
While 89 percent of Americans say the national economy's in bad shape, far fewer, 58 percent, say it's getting worse – down from a record 78 percent last month. Gasoline prices have fallen by 37 cents a gallon in that time, albeit to a still-high $3.74.
This doesn't mean Americans think the economy is improving – just 6 percent say that. More instead say it's staying the same, 36 percent. "Staying the same" when nine in 10 think it's bad is hardly positive, though it is better than further deterioration.
The ABC News Consumer Comfort Index, measuring views of current economic conditions, stands at -49 on its scale of +100 to -100, essentially unchanged from -50 last week and a mere 2 points from its all-time low, -51, set in late May.
There's reason for these views beyond gas prices (which are up 34 percent from this time last year). Beyond the housing crisis and credit crunch, the Bureau of Labor Statistics today reported the biggest year-over-year increase in wholesale prices in 27 years. Last week it said inflation at the retail level was up its highest in 17 years.
In this week's CCI only 19 percent of Americans say it's a good time to buy things they want and need, a point off last week's record low for this measure. And fewer than half, 47 percent, say their own finances are in good shape.
The last presidential election year when confidence was this low was 1992, when the CCI stood at -46 just before the Democratic National Convention (then held in July). That year's economic discontent led to the defeat of incumbent George H.W. Bush; how economic worries play out this year, without an incumbent running, is open to question.
EXPECTATIONS – Separately from the CCI index of views of current conditions, ABC has been measuring views of the economy's future – whether it's getting better or worse – since 1981. (Sometimes current sentiment and expectations run in different directions.)
