In an Economy-Driven Election Confidence is its Worst Since '92

Nov. 4, 2008— -- Consumer confidence is its Election-Day worst since 1992, only 3 points from its low in 22 years of weekly ABC News polls.

ABC's Consumer Comfort Index stands at -48 on its scale of -100 to +100, very near its worst ever, -51 in May. The last time it languished this low for this long was after the 1990-91 recession, sealing George H.W. Bush's loss in 1992.

Only 10 percent of Americans rate the national economy positively and 21 percent rate the buying climate positively, each 3 points from its record low. Forty-seven percent rate their own finances positively, 5 points from the low and below a majority for 15 weeks.

The economy was responsible for Bill Clinton's win in 1992 and bolsters Barack Obama this year. The ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll has found the economy far and away the top issue, and Obama leading John McCain in trust to handle it.

The CCI was -6 just before Election Day in 1988, -49 in 1992, -9 in 1996, soared to +28 in 2000 and was -5 in 2004.

The CCI has stagnated below -40 for 28 weeks straight, and below -45 for a month. With the global economic crisis underway, a steep seven-week drop in gasoline prices hasn't helped, except perhaps in keeping confidence from going lower still.

Here's a closer look at the three components of the ABC News CCI:

NATIONAL ECONOMY – Ten percent of Americans rate the economy as excellent or good; it was 8 percent last week. The highest was 80 percent on Jan. 16, 2000. The lowest was 7 percent in late 1991 and early 1992.

PERSONAL FINANCES – Forty-seven percent say their own finances are excellent or good; it was 49 percent last week. The best was 70 percent, last reached in January 2000. The worst was 42 percent on March 14, 1993.

BUYING CLIMATE –Twenty-one percent say it's an excellent or good time to buy things; it was 19 percent last week. The best was 57 percent on Jan. 16, 2000. The worst was 18 percent, Aug. 10 and 24, and two weeks ago.

METHODOLOGY: Interviews for the ABC News Consumer Comfort Index are reported in a four-week rolling average. This week's results are based on telephone interviews among a random national sample of 1,000 adults in the four weeks ending Nov. 2, 2008. The results have a 3-point error margin. Field work by ICR-International Communications Research of Media, Pa.