Optimism Wanes, Confidence Flat
Twenty-five percent think the economy is getting better.
July 14, 2009 — -- Consumer confidence is flat-lining at an historically low level – with expectations of recovery softening.
The ABC News Consumer Comfort Index, based on public views of current economic conditions, stands at -51 on its scale of +100 to -100, 3 points from its record low Jan. 25. It's been below -50 for four weeks straight, a week from the record stretch late last year.
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And in a separate, forward-looking measurement, Americans are less optimistic about the future: Just 25 percent think the economy is getting better, down from 31 percent in June and 33 percent in May, its highest in five years.
Thirty-nine percent instead think the economy is getting worse.
There is ample cause for concern, with unemployment at 9.5 percent – its highest since 1983 – consumer prices vaulting by an unexpected 1.8 percent in June and the budget deficit soaring past the $1 trillion mark for the first time. On the brighter side, retail sales have risen for two months running and gas prices dropped 8 cents the past week.
INDEX – Well under half of Americans, 43 percent, rate their personal finances positively, compared with an average of 57 percent in weekly polls since late 1985.This gauge is up a bit from its record low, 39 percent, late last month, but has weakened from a 2009 high of 52 percent in early May.
Far fewer, 22 percent, say it's a good time to buy things, matching the 2009 low and 15 points below the long-term average. And only 8 percent rate the national economy positively, unchanged in three weeks, in single digits for 38 of the last 40 weeks and a whopping 30 points below average.
BETTER/WORSE – Economic expectations are measured separately from the CCI; while, as noted, optimism has wanted, it's running ahead of its long-term average, 19 percent across 28 years of polls. And it's 23 points higher than the record low, 2 percent as the economy tanked last October.
