Pessimism Recedes as Confidence Creeps Up
Just 7 percent of Americans rate the economy positively
Aug. 18, 2009 — -- Economic pessimism reached a five-year low this week, as consumer ratings of current economic conditions trudged slowly out of the basement.
Thirty-one percent of Americans now say the economy's getting worse, down 8 points in a month to the fewest since January 2004. The change since last October is striking: The number who say the economy is worsening has plummeted from 82 percent last fall, its 28-year high. Still, just 26 percent see the economy getting better and 41 percent say things are staying the same.
Click here for PDF with charts and data table.
In a separate measure of current economic conditions, the ABC News Consumer Comfort Index stands at -46 on its scale of -100 to +100, its highest mark since mid-May but a dubious figure nonetheless. Recent improvement stems mostly from better ratings of personal finances, now 48 percent positive, their best in three months, and up 9 points since hitting the record low in late June.
Like the CCI, the economy is trying to climb out of recession but for now seems relatively stuck. Retail sales were weak in July, with Americans reportedly concentrating on eliminating debt rather than buying new things, and unemployment is at an historically high level.
CURRENT INDEX – The CCI is based on ratings of the economy, personal finances and the buying climate. Positive ratings of the economy are by far the worst of the three, with just 7 percent saying it is in excellent or good shape. That is the lowest rating in eight weeks – now 31 points below average – and it's been in single digits for 42 of the past 45 weeks.
Just over a quarter, 26 percent, say it's an excellent or good time to buy things – a point from the year's best, but 11 points below average and under 30 percent for a record 75 weeks.
At 48 percent positive, ratings of personal finances are the strongest of the three components and at their highest in 13 weeks. They're up 9 points since their record low in late June but still 9 points below average.
BETTER/WORSE – As noted, in a separate forward-looking measure, 31 percent say the economy's getting worse, 9 points below the long-term average in polls since March 1981, and 51 points below the record high, 82 percent, last October.
