-- It's Week 11 of the NFL season. Chalk's Vegas experts have you covered with comprehensive betting previews for all of Sunday's action, included together in one handy file.
Last week: 4-1 against the spread with best bets (marked with an *); 3-2 with over/under best bets; 2-6 ATS on picks on all other games; 2-0 on O/U leans.
Season to date: 31-25-2 (55.4 percent) on ATS best bets; 25-15 (62.5 percent) with O/U best bets, including New Orleans-Carolina under 53.5 on Thursday night; 38-47-1 on ATS leans, including Carolina -3.5 on Thursday night; 8-6 on over/under leans.
Last week: 6-5 on ATS best bets; 4-7 with O/U best bets.
Season: 52-37-3 (58.4 percent) on ATS best bets; 46-39 (54.1 percent) on O/U best bets.
Last week: 0-2 on ATS best bets; 0-1 on O/U best bets, 0-1 on ATS leans.
Season: 9-11 (45 percent) on ATS best bets; 14-13 (51.9 percent) on O/U best bets; 5-3 on ATS leans, 2-1 on O/U leans.
Last week: 1-2 on ATS best bets; 2-1 on O/U best bets, 4-0 on ATS leans, 0-1 on O/U leans.
Season: 11-16 (40.7 percent) on ATS best bets; 7-13 (35 percent) on O/U best bets; 9-4-2 (69.2 percent) on ATS leans, 1-3 on O/U leans.
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Friday morning.
Spread: Opened Pittsburgh -8.5; now Pittsburgh -8
Total: Opened 49.5; now 45.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 84 percent Pittsburgh
Public perception: The public is all over the Steelers, though that's just about bettors going against the winless Browns (0-10 SU and a league-worst 2-8 ATS).
Wiseguys' view: Sharps have been toying with this number. Early bettors bet Pittsburgh from -8.5 to -9 and then those preferring the Browns bet it back down to 8.
Dave Tuley's take: Over the years, I've done very well taking home underdogs of more than a touchdown, and with the Steelers playing below expectations, this would normally be a prime spot to fade them, but I just can't pull the trigger. The Browns are No. 28 in offense (and not getting better with Cody Kessler) and No. 32 in defense. If anything, this line still looks a little short, but I'm certainly not laying double digits on the road.
The pick: Lean to Browns 8*
Rufus Peabody: Pittsburgh's offense bounced back from a league-worst performance in Week 9, but it wasn't enough to overcome an even better Dallas offense. The Steelers seem to be getting a lot of respect from the market due to reputation -- it seems like they should be playing better. Anecdotally, it seems like these late-season AFC North games where one team is significantly better end up being quite close. I expect Pittsburgh to win (73 percent chance), but I wouldn't be surprised if the game stays interesting.
Massey-Peabody Line: Pittsburgh -7.4, Total: 45.7
Mike Clay:?I'm expecting quite a bit more offense in this AFC North showdown. Cleveland's offense isn't very good, but it also has dealt with a fairly tough schedule this season, including a pair of recent games against Dallas and Baltimore. The Browns have scored at least two offensive touchdowns during three of their four home games. Pittsburgh has been much better at home than on the road this season, and has allowed 25 points per game during its four road affairs against Washington, Philadelphia, Miami and Baltimore. That isn't exactly a very intimidating group. The Steelers' road struggles have bled over to the offense as well (18 points per game), but it will be hard for them to fail against a Browns defense that has been lit up for four or more touchdowns during seven of its 10 games this season. The Browns have surrendered 31.0 points per game at home, compared with 29.5 on the road this year.
Prediction: Pittsburgh 29, Cleveland 23
The pick: Cleveland and the over --- CLV 8, 46.5
Spread: Opened Dallas -7; now Dallas -7 (-120)
Total: Opened 45; now 45
PickCenter public consensus pick: 71 percent Dallas
Public perception: The public is again on the Cowboys, and with good reason: They've won and covered their past eight games and top our NFL ATS Standings. Those riding the streak have been joined by the bandwagon jumpers.
Wiseguys' view: Sharps are more split with plenty of support for Baltimore as such a big underdog, considering how the Ravens are used to playing a lot of close games. Regardless, the Cowboys will be a very popular teaser play.
Dave Tuley's take: I'm waiting for the Cowboys to be so overvalued that we have to fade them. I'm not sure this is the right spot, as our NFL Vegas Rankings have this game right around the 7-point spread, but I'm going to jump in now instead of being late to the party. The Ravens are back in the playoff hunt, too, after their Week 9 win over the Steelers and are coming off an easy win over the Browns a week ago Thursday, so I expect John Harbaugh to have his troops fully prepared for the upstart Cowboys. Ezekiel Elliott has Dallas ranked No. 1 in rushing offense, but Baltimore is No. 1 in rushing defense. The last time the Cowboys faced the No. 1 rush defense, they shredded Green Bay for 191 yards, but the Packers were a misleading top-ranked defense due to weak competition. Baltimore should hold up better and keep this close.
The pick: Ravens 7 (EVEN)*
Rufus Peabody: Despite their awful offense, I've loved betting the over on Ravens games this year, because of their fast pace (67.9 non-overtime plays per game) and pass-happy tendencies (65-35 pass-to-run ratio). But the market seems to have reacted strongly to last week's games: Dallas put up the fourth-best individual game grade by any offense this season, and Baltimore's offense actually graded above average in its win over Cleveland. Our model makes the Cowboys a 7.9-point favorite, with a 74 percent chance of winning.
Massey-Peabody Line: Dallas -7.9, Total: 45.4
Prediction: Dallas 26, Baltimore 18
The pick: Dallas and the under --- DAL -7, 45
Spread: Opened Detroit -6.5; now Detroit -6.5
Total: Opened 47; now 47
PickCenter public consensus pick: 74 percent Detroit
Public perception: The public is on the Lions, having bought into the fact they've caught the Vikings for the NFC North lead at 5-4 and are now the favorites to win the division in Vegas.
Wiseguys' view: The sharps are split on this game, as the ones liking Jacksonville snatched up the 7s that were available, while those preferring Detroit are happy to lay the -6.5.
Dave Tuley's take: The Lions are improved, obviously, but I'm not sure they should be favored by this many points. In fact, the NFL Vegas Rankings have the Jaguars as a value play, with the Lions only two points better on a neutral field; the line should be around only -3.5 or -4 with home-field advantage. In addition, the Lions are 1-2 SU and 0-2-1 ATS as favorites this year. The Jaguars have let me down several times this season (and they're only 3-5-1 ATS), but I can't pass on them here, even though I'd obviously prefer if we can get 7 over the weekend.
The pick: Jaguars 6.5*
Rufus Peabody: After each of their NFC North compatriots lost last week, Detroit enters Week 11 fresh off a bye and on top of the division. Every single one of the Lions' games this season has been decided by a touchdown or less, but this game has a chance to be different. They face a Jacksonville team that has been bad, but has also been unlucky. Yes, Blake Bortles will throw more interceptions than the average quarterback, but Jacksonville's 19 turnovers and minus-14 turnover differential reflect a large amount of bad luck. Detroit should stay on top of the NFC North for another week, as the Lions have a 74 percent chance of winning, and I expect a high-scoring game indoors at Ford Field.
Pick: Over 47
Massey-Peabody Line: Detroit -8, Total: 50.1
Prediction: Detroit 30, Jacksonville 20
The pick: Detroit and the over --- DET -6.5, 47
Spread: Opened Indianapolis -3,5; now Indianapolis -3 (EVEN)
Total: Opened 52.5; now 53
PickCenter public consensus pick: 58 percent Tennessee
Public perception: The public is on the Titans, and I've seen it even higher at other bet-tracking sites. They gained a lot of believers with their 47-25 rout of the Packers last week.
Wiseguys' view: Sharps have joined in with Tennessee backers, even after reaching the key number of 3, and it wouldn't be surprising to see this get bet down to 2.5.
Dave Tuley's take: The Titans are an up-and-coming team and my first thought was to back them as road underdogs here, as their running game and improved passing attack should dominate against the Colts' No. 29-ranked defense. However, let's not forget that the Colts also beat the Packers 31-26 (in Green Bay, no less) and their offense averages 26.6 points per game compared to the Titans' 26.4 (and the Tennessee defense isn't too much better at No. 27). The Titans are still trying to prove they can challenge the Colts and Texans in the AFC South, yet they were 4-point home faves over this same Colts team just four weeks ago and lost 34-26. The Titans still look like the right side, but in my mind, that was the time to turn the tables on their divisional foes; if they couldn't do it at home, I'm not as confident they'll do it in Indy.
The pick: Lean to Titans 3
Rufus Peabody: Tennessee exploded offensively last week against a good Packers defense, rushing and passing for more yards per play than anyone has against Green Bay all season. The Titans continue their slow, methodical ascent up the Massey-Peabody ratings, and we now rate them as practically average -- only 0.05 points worse than an average team on a neutral field. They travel to Indianapolis to square off against another team coming off a win against Green Bay. The Colts had a bye last week, which gives them a boost, and after adding in home-field advantage, they are a small favorite with a 59 percent chance of winning.
Massey-Peabody Line: Indianapolis -2.7, Total: 51.6
Mike Clay:?Andrew Luck and the Colts are at home this week, but unlike Vegas, I like the red-hot Titans to win what should be a high-scoring affair. Tennessee's offense has benefited from a light schedule, but it's not as if the unit is barely scraping by; they've pounded the opposition. The Titans have put up 26 offensive touchdowns during their past six games, which works out to 4.3 per game. Overall, they average 3.3 per game, which ranks third behind only New Orleans and Dallas this season. The Colts' defense, meanwhile, has allowed three touchdowns in four straight games and has allowed an NFL-high 27 field goal attempts. It's worth noting that Indianapolis went into Tennessee and won in Week 7, but this comes down to the fact that we have a pair of high-scoring offenses against a pair of struggling defenses. The difference for me is the fact that Tennessee's defensive unit (2.1 touchdowns allowed per game) has been better than Indianapolis' unit (2.7).
Prediction: Tennessee 29, Indianapolis 27
The pick: Tennessee and the over -- TEN 3, 53.5
Spread: Opened Cincinnati -4; now Cincinnati -2.5 (-120)
Total: Opened 45.5; now 47.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 57 percent Buffalo
Public perception: The public is certainly liking the Bills (4-5 SU, but 4-3-2 ATS) more than the Bengals (3-5-1 SU, but 2-6-1 ATS) at this point.
Wiseguys' view: Early sharps grabbed Buffalo 4 and have continued to back the Bills with the public to push it through the key number of 3 at a majority of books. The Bills will also be among the most popular underdog teasers (the Packers being another).
Dave Tuley's take: The move to the Bills makes sense, but I truly believe the Bengals are the better overall team and they've just lost a bunch of close games. I certainly wouldn't take the Bills now at 2.5 and would argue that the value has flipped to the Bengals at this point.
The pick: Lean to Bengals -2.5 (-120)
Rufus Peabody: Fresh off a bye, Buffalo faces a Cincinnati team that gets one fewer day to prepare than usual, after falling to the Giants by a point on Monday Night Football. Cincinnati is still an above-average team, despite its 3-5-1 record, and the market seems to agree with me on that, but the Bills continue to be disrespected. They have been the most un-clutch team in football this year; their performance has been substantially worse in the fourth quarter of one-score games than in more "normal" non-garbage-time game situations. They are 0-4 in one-score games. I'm betting on their play in crunch time mirroring their overall play moving forward.
Pick: Buffalo 2.5 ( 105)
Massey-Peabody Line: Cincinnati -0.2, Total: 46.6
Prediction: Buffalo 25, Cincinnati 24
The pick: Buffalo and the over --- BUF 2.5, 47.5
Spread: Opened Kansas City -7.5; now Kansas City -7.5
Total: Opened 44.5; now 44.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 55 percent Kansas City
Public perception: The public is close to 50-50 on this game with some other bet-tracking sites having it land slightly on the side of the Buccaneers.
Wiseguys' view: The sharps are also mostly split with this line at 7.5. There would be more sharps on the Kansas City side if the line dropped to 7. The Chiefs will also be a popular teaser play for sharps and squares alike, along with the Giants, Cowboys and Steelers.
Dave Tuley's take: In our NFL midseason report here at Chalk, I specifically mentioned the Chiefs as a team to fade when favored. They've already had three games this season (Chargers, Saints, Jaguars) when they've won but failed to cover. The Chiefs tend to rely on their running game and defense to get an early lead and then grind out the victory (though they also have two 17-point comebacks this year). Either way, Jameis Winston and the Bucs' offense is good enough to keep this within one score.
The pick: Buccaneers 7.5*
Rufus Peabody: Kansas City continued its run of turnover wizardry and remarkable fourth-quarter comebacks, rallying from down 14 in the final quarter to beat Carolina on the road. Surprisingly, Kansas City actually outplayed Carolina fundamentally; the Chiefs underachieved on third downs and were not able to convert red zone trips into touchdowns (0-for-3 on red zone chances). But Kansas City has been remarkably lucky all season in turnovers, and the Chiefs ran their NFL-leading turnover margin to plus-14 in Week 10. They face a Tampa Bay squad that has also been lucky, but in different areas. The Bucs have been excellent on both sides of the ball on third and fourth down ... but not on other downs.
Massey-Peabody Line: Kansas City -6.9, Total: 45.1
Prediction: Kansas City 25, Tampa Bay 19
The pick: Tampa Bay and the under --- TB 7.5, 44.5
Spread: Opened New York -6; now New York -7.5
Total: Opened 47.5; now 44
PickCenter public consensus pick: 69 percent New York
Public perception: The public is warming up to the Giants, who are on a four-game winning (and covering) streak. The Bears are 2-7 SU and ATS and now have lost WR Alshon Jeffery to suspension.
Wiseguys' view: This game opened New York -6 and the move to -7 came after the Giants' 21-20 win over Cincinnati on ESPN's Monday Night Football. Sharps have joined with the public to push this from 7 to 7.5.
Dave Tuley's take: I would normally be tempted by the Bears, but the wheels are coming off in Chicago and it doesn't help to lose Jeffery. Still, I believe Jay Cutler will spread the ball around and Jordan Howard has emerged as a reliable running back (plus Jeremy Langford is back and fighting for playing time, so the Bears' offense could improve overall). But I'm not confident in the Bears' secondary against the Giants' deep receiving corps. That leads me to look at the over, especially because it has been deflated by more than a field goal and I like the chances of going over 44.
The pick: Over 44* (lean to Bears 7)
Rufus Peabody: The Bears have been effective running the ball and stopping the run this season, and their defense ranks 10th in yards per play allowed. Jay Cutler was just brutally bad last week in leading the Bears to the worst offensive grade of the week. He's also reportedly lost support in the locker room. The Giants have been mediocre on offense, but their defense has kept them afloat for the first half. It's pretty incredible that they are 6-3 given their turnover differential is minus-8. They should improve to 7-3, as our model makes them a 6.8-point favorite here.
Massey-Peabody Line: New York Giants -6.8, Total: 44.9
I think Vegas has the line right here (Giants by roughly a touchdown), but I expect a lower-scoring game. New York's offense has registered seven touchdowns during its past two games, but that has accounted for all of its scoring, as the Giants have failed to manage a single field goal attempt. In fact, if we total offensive touchdowns and field goal attempts, New York sits 29th in the NFL (3.6 per game) this season. Chicago's defense, meanwhile, has been much better in 2016, especially as of late. The Bears' defense has allowed 11 touchdowns during its past six games. Chicago also ranks dead last in offensive touchdowns per game (1.4), and has yet to score more than two offensive touchdowns in a single game this season. New York's defense has allowed more than two only once (Minnesota, Week 4).
Prediction: New York Giants 23, Chicago 16
The pick: Under --- 44.5
The 46 total points in the Bears-Bucs game last week was a bit deceiving with a Cutler Hail Mary touchdown right before the half, along with a pick-six from Cutler earlier in the contest. The Bears' offense is rapidly declining with Cutler at the controls, and they'll be missing two vital pieces this week as well. Offensive lineman Kyle Long is now out for the season, while Jeffery will miss the next four games due to suspension. Meanwhile, the Bears' defense has actually ascended, while welcoming numerous players back into the fold after early-season injuries. The Giants' offense continues to have a hard time gaining consistency and still is easier to prepare for with the lack of run game.
Spread: Opened pick 'em; now Minnesota -2
Total: Opened 41; now 40.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 62 percent Arizona
Public perception: This game opened pick 'em, but we're seeing the public land on the visiting Cardinals. The main reason is due to declining public trust in the Vikings, who have lost four straight for their backers.
Wiseguys' view: In the face of the public money on Arizona, the sharps have landed on Minnesota, betting it up to a 2-point home fave (and -2.5 offshore as of this writing on Thursday).
Dave Tuley's take: Both these teams have been hard to figure out, especially lately. The pick 'em line certainly tells us this could be a coin-flip result, though I wouldn't be surprised if either team won in a rout. The NFL Vegas Rankings?have the Vikings as a value play, as we felt this line should be closer to Minnesota -3 (it was more of a value when the line was pick 'em, so I'll just call it a lean now).
The pick: Lean to Vikings -2
Rufus Peabody: Minnesota's free fall continued against the Redskins, but there were some positive signs for the offense. For the second straight week, the Vikings put up a very good play success rate (54.7 percent), and their 6.6 yards per pass play is slightly above average. But they continue to have no success running the ball; Minnesota running backs averaged 1.8 yards per carry against one of the worst rushing defenses in football. On the season, Minnesota running backs are averaging a ghastly 2.72 yards per rush, more than half a yard worse than any other team. While the Arizona offense hasn't been as bad, it has been below average, and struggled to get the big plays from Bruce Arians' vertical passing game. The market has overreacted to the extremes in this game -- I expect both offenses to be better than they have been and both defenses to be worse.
Pick: Over 40.5
Massey-Peabody Line: Minnesota -0.8, Total: 44.0
Prediction: Arizona 20, Minnesota 16
The pick: Arizona and the under --- ARZ pick 'em, 40
Spread: Opened pick 'em; now Miami -1.5
Total: Opened 40.5; now 39.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 79 percent Miami
Public perception: The public is on the Dolphins, as their offense has come to life with the emergence of Jay Ajayi, plus the public is fading the debut of the Rams' No. 1 overall draft pick Jared Goff.
Wiseguys' view: After this line opened pick 'em, early sharps actually bet the Rams to 1-point home favorites. However, after the announcement that Goff was starting, oddmakers flipped the Dolphins to favoritism and the sharps are now more split.
Dave Tuley's take: I'm not looking to back the Rams with a rookie starting quarterback (especially one they've obviously been holding out of the lineup because he's not ready), though I wouldn't trust Miami in the role of favorite, either. The total was set low and has been bet lower, but I think that's the better bet here. The Rams, with their No. 6 defense and No. 31 offense, are a prime under team at 6-3. The Dolphins are 6-3 to the over, but facing the rookie QB, I expect they'll play more conservatively on offense and try to grind out a win.
The pick: Under 39.5* (lean to Dolphins -1.5)
Rufus Peabody: Goff will finally make his NFL debut this week, but was it the right move for Los Angeles? My numbers say yes, but Goff is an improvement of only 0.1 points, and that's mainly because it's hard to be worse than Case Keenum has been. The Rams have the worst-rated offense in football, but are still 4-5 due to their eighth-ranked defense. Jay Ajayi continued to produce chunk plays in the running game for the Dolphins, with another two runs of 15 or more yards, bringing the total over the last four weeks to 11. This game is close to a coin flip, with the Rams having the slight edge (51 percent chance of winning).
Massey-Peabody Line: Los Angeles -0.3, Total: 39.6
Prediction: Los Angeles 19, Miami 18
The pick: Los Angeles and the under --- LA 2, 39.5
Spread: Opened New England -14; now New England -13
Total: Opened 52; now 51
PickCenter public consensus pick: 83 percent New England
Public perception: The Patriots failed to cover in last Sunday night's thrilling 31-24 loss to the Seahawks, but the public is able to excuse that, as they're still 7-2 ATS -- including 4-1 ATS since Tom Brady returned from suspension. And they're facing the 49ers (1-8 SU, 2-7 ATS).
Wiseguys' view: The early sharps grabbed the 49ers 14, as there's only one way they're likely to bet this, which is taking the double-digit home underdog.
Dave Tuley's take: I've been burned several times by the 49ers this season, so of course I passed on them last week when they actually covered as 14-point home 'dogs in their 23-20 loss to the Cardinals. Now, they were down 14-0 early and they're certainly capable of getting blown out here, but Colin Kaepernick has the offense playing better and the return of Carlos Hyde helped the 49ers move the ball against the Cardinals. So there's hope they can stay relatively close while the Patriots are mostly concerned with just getting out of there with a victory.
The pick: 49ers 13*
Rufus Peabody: Despite losing last week, New England retains the top spot in the Massey-Peabody ratings (easily). San Francisco is coming off back-to-back above-average offensive games, and its numbers last week at Arizona don't look great (4.6 yards per play, 42 percent play success rate), although the 49ers were on the road against a top defense. This line opened at some places at a full two touchdowns, but has dropped down to 13. Still, we think that's too high -- the line should only be 10.
Pick: San Francisco 13, lean under 51
Massey-Peabody Line: New England -10, Total: 48.7
Prediction: New England 33, San Francisco 21
The pick: Over --- 51
Points are certainly not an issue for the juggernaut Patriots defense with Brady at the helm. Since his return against the Browns, they've averaged 32 points per contest. Yes, they'll most likely be without Rob Gronkowski for this matchup, but they own a plethora of weapons, including tight end Martellus Bennett. Of course, the 49ers' defense remains at the bottom of the NFL in yards per game allowed. The erosion of talent over the previous few years along with decimating injuries from this season will serve as a brutal mix against the Patriots. I'll leave the door open for Kaepernick and the 49ers' offense to show improvement. Since taking the reins as the starting quarterback in Week 6, Kaepernick has an opportunity to grow within offense fit for him. His ability to run the football should prove valuable against the Patriots' vulnerable front seven.
Spread: Opened Seattle -4.5; now Seattle -6.5
Total: Opened 46; now 43
PickCenter public consensus pick: 71 percent Seattle
Public perception: The Seahawks are regaining the public's support with prime-time wins over the Bills and Patriots. The Eagles will probably get more support as this line continues to climb.
Wiseguys' view: The line has gone from Seattle -4.5 to -6.5, but most of that was due to the Seahawks' win over the Patriots on Sunday night after the Westgate's openers on Sunday afternoon. Sharps are split at 6.5.
Dave Tuley's take: Both teams are back on the winning track, and this could be a playoff preview. Seattle's home-field advantage isn't what it used to be, but I'm not ready to fade them with Carson Wentz, who has impressed this year but faces a big test against the Seahawks defense. Instead, I'm looking to the over as the Seahawks offense is coming around and has played two straight overs. This total has been getting bet down, but I'm willing to fade that move with these two teams (especially as we're likely to see a defensive or special-teams TD as well).
The pick: Over 43* (lean to Seahawks -6.5)
Rufus Peabody: Seattle remains undervalued despite a defining win on the road at New England. While the Seahawks struggled in the red zone, they were fortunate in the turnover department, with a plus-2 differential. Philadelphia also played a fantastic game in Week 10, beating Atlanta by 9 and jumping from eighth to sixth in the Massey-Peabody ratings. Still, the Eagles are a long shot to make the playoffs (34 percent chance) due to their 0-3 division record, which hamstrings them in tiebreakers, and their remaining schedule, which is the fifth toughest in football. This is their toughest remaining game, though (they have only a 28 percent chance of winning).
Massey-Peabody Line: Seattle -7.1, Total: 43.5
Prediction: Seattle 23, Philadelphia 20
The pick: Philadelphia and the under --- PHI 6.5, 44
Matched up against Seattle's vaunted defense in one of the toughest environments to play in the NFL will present an issue for the rookie signal-caller Wentz. The Eagles offense ranks 23rd in the NFL in yards per play, and with the Seahawks' ability to take away the run game, it's difficult to envision Wentz and his questionable pass-catchers making plays to light up the scoreboard. Meanwhile, the Seahawks offense continues to play a more conservative style on offense, protecting Russell Wilson. Eagles defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz has done an impressive job turning around this defense that ranks sixth in the NFL in yards allowed per game. The unit was impressive in holding down the Falcons last week to just over 300 yards.