Big 12 experts: Answers to the league's most pressing questions
— -- With the regular season in the books, we turn to our Big 12 insiders to detail the biggest topics facing the conference going forward.
Next year, things could look a bit different. The Big 12 again missed out on the College Football Playoff, but in 2017 the league will have a championship game and new head coaches at Texas and Baylor.
Is defense killing the league?
Jeremy Crabtree: I think the Big 12's defensive troubles can be directly attributed to struggles on the recruiting trail. In the conference's recruiting backyard, the only Big 12 team to sign top-five defensive recruits in the last three classes was Texas, and 11 of the top 15 in those years signed with schools outside the league. Yes, other leagues have recruited Texas for decades, but you never used to see this type of success; a lot of it can be traced to Texas A&M's entry into the SEC and how that has opened the door for other teams such as Ole Miss, LSU and Alabama. That lack of defensive talent certainly is showing up on the field on Saturdays.
Max Olson: Not really. I was honestly startled to hear College Football Playoff committee chairman Kirby Hocutt claim Oklahoma's defense kept the Sooners out of contention. We know OU's nonconference losses were the real reason, but still, it's important to know that's the perception among committee members. As I've argued all year long, we all need to be a lot smarter about how we judge today's defenses. It's all about getting stops and limiting points per drive, not yardage. The Big 12 had some very effective defenses this season (West Virginia, Kansas State, Oklahoma State) by those standards. Just because OU didn't doesn't mean the whole league deserves a bum rep.
Mitch Sherman: Absolutely not. Look, college football is an offensive game today more than ever. Across the FBS, teams are scoring points and gaining yards at record rates. The signature of the Big 12 is great offensive play. You saw two Heisman Trophy finalists from the league. As a byproduct, defensive numbers will suffer. The Big 12 does, in fact, need a defensive All-American or two. It could do without more games like the Week 8 Oklahoma-Texas Tech debacle. But when Hocutt says lack of defense hurt Oklahoma's playoff bid, he's not telling the whole truth. What most hurt Oklahoma's bid was the lack of a big September win and the absence of a few competent challengers in the Big 12.
Jake Trotter: The no-defense label has definitely damaged the Big 12's reputation. And in college football, reputation is reality, especially in the age of the playoff. This, however, is more about the flagships. Texas and Oklahoma struggling defensively is what really has damaged the perception of the league. In the Big Ten, nobody nationally cares if Michigan State ranks 81st in points per drive (which it does) if Michigan and Ohio State rank Nos. 2 and 3 (which they do). When Oklahoma gives up a touchdown on every drive to Texas Tech, or Texas surrenders 50 to Cal, that -- more than anything else -- reinforces the narrative that the Big 12 can't play defense. If and when the Sooners and Longhorns get back to stuffing people on defense, especially people from other leagues, the rest will take care of itself.
Will a championship game help perception, especially after this year's playoff picks?
Olson: A Big 12 title game will make the conference more money, but history tells us it's probably going to hurt the league's No. 1 team as often as it helps it. I don't think a 13th data point is suddenly going to change how much respect the Big 12 is or isn't getting. Playing a No. 1 versus No. 2 game does give you the most bang for your buck, and in some years that's going to be very helpful for completing the r?sum? of the Big 12's champ. But I don't believe the league is in a significantly better position for 2017 and beyond with a title game.
Sherman: This year matters little for next year. As Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby continues to look for definitive answers from the playoff committee on nonconference scheduling and the relevance of a championship game, we've all watched the playoff picks through three seasons and realized that every year presents a new puzzle. If the Big 12 championship game next year pits an undefeated playoff contender against a two- or three-loss foe, it helps nothing. If both participants rank in the top 10 and played a competitive regular-season game, then, yes, the title game is a good thing.
Trotter: A championship game would not have helped the Big 12 this year, and I'm not sure it would've helped in 2014, either. The Big 12 is facing a perception gap with the selection committee that is bigger than a championship game. Until the Big 12 starts beating big-name teams in big games, format is going to do little to cure the Big 12's ills.
Can we expect a similar one-year turnaround for Tom Herman at Texas?
Olson: Texas will not win a national championship in 2017, no matter what Charlie Strong promised on the way out. But Herman will put the Longhorns through the same insanely tough offseason that whipped Houston into shape, and I think he'll get similar results next season with a team that has fully bought-in on methods and mission. Hard to make bold proclamations about what he can accomplish when he still hasn't completed his staff nor seen his 2017 Big 12 schedule. But I do think he has the right medicine for what has been ailing Texas' lackluster program in recent years.
Sherman: I don't know why we would expect that. Because of Texas' returning talent, which is considerable? Because of Herman's success in 2015 at Houston as a first-year head coach? That's a stretch. If you want to look into the past to predict the future at UT, look at the past seven years in Austin. Under more experienced coaches with track records of success, the Longhorns themselves and the impactful forces that orbit the program have excelled at steering Texas off track. Herman's a good coach, and I suspect he's capable of orchestrating a Texas turnaround. To expect it in his first year, ?la Bob Stoops, is slightly unreasonable. But hey, isn't that what Texas is all about?
Trotter: To some degree, we can. A Big 12 championship or playoff push would be asking too much in Year 1. But there's no reason, given the talent level on both sides of the ball, that Texas can't win eight or nine games in Herman's first season. To his credit, Strong amassed blue-chip talent at literally every position. Now, it's on Herman to translate that talent into production.
Which Texas team bounces back next season and which coach will be on the hot seat?
Olson: TCU has no excuse to not be better next season, and I think the hiring of Matt Rhule actually gives Baylor a chance to exceed those lowered expectations in 2017. The effects of the Bears' roster and recruiting woes might not really kick in for another year, depending on how well Rhule recruits in these next few months. A 5-7 season and no bowl berth ensured Kliff Kingsbury is the league's hot-seat coach this offseason. Beyond the obvious horrifying play on defense, his teams still haven't figured out a way to consistently win close games and put a good win streak together. That absolutely has to change in 2017.
Sherman: TCU bounces back. No reason exists to believe that Gary Patterson has lost it. He has won 11 games or more nine times, including twice in the Big 12. This season was just a bad one, like 2012 and 2013 -- which account for half of his time in the league, incidentally -- but the Horned Frogs will find a way to reverse their problems, especially on defense, in short order. I'm more confident in that than anything involving the Big 12 teams in Texas.
Trotter: Texas and TCU are primed to deliver bounce-back seasons. I just mentioned why Texas should. TCU will have 10 starters back on offense and eight back on defense. If they get sharper quarterback play from Kenny Hill -- and yes, that's a big "if" -- the Horned Frogs have the pieces elsewhere to return to Big 12 contention. I have a difficult time seeing how either Texas Tech or Baylor improves. Even if quarterback Patrick Mahomes II comes back, Tech still seems hopeless defensively. The Red Raiders also don't have NFL-caliber difference-makers like Jakeem Grant, DeAndre Washington or Jace Amaro at the skill positions like they did earlier in Kingsbury's tenure; their offensive line is a mess, too.
Is Kansas State primed to have a championship-caliber year in 2017?
Crabtree: If the Wildcats can fill some holes through recruiting this cycle, then there are a lot of reasons for excitement in Manhattan. With all the returning pieces on offense, K-State still needs to find more playmakers at the receiver position,; that's why you've seen the Wildcats scour the juco ranks for an immediate difference-maker to complement receiver Byron Pringle, running back Alex Barnes and quarterback Jesse Ertz. But perhaps more important is the hunt for additional depth at defensive end and defensive tackle. The Wildcats hope to hit some home runs through the juco ranks at both positions, and if they can find somebody to offset some of the missing numbers Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year Jordan Willis delivered in 2016, then it's not crazy to be bullish on K-State's chances.
Sherman: The Wildcats last won a league title in 2012, when Collin Klein played like a superstar en route to becoming a Heisman finalist. That's the recipe for Bill Snyder success. And while Ertz returns as a junior at quarterback next season, I don't envision a Klein-like ascension. K-State returns a lot defensively from a good group this year. The schedule is favorable, with Oklahoma, West Virginia and TCU at home. But Kansas State looks more like a third-place team, which is, of course, higher than it was picked this year. And KSU regularly exceeds expectations.
Trotter: Ertz will be an experienced senior in 2017; he improved over the second half of this season, both in his passing accuracy and decision-making. Willis will be gone, but the Wildcats bring back the reigning Big 12 Defensive Freshman of the Year (end Reggie Walker), Big 12 Defensive Newcomer of the Year (cornerback? D.J. Reed), and a two-time All-Big 12 linebacker in Elijah Lee. The receiving trio of Pringle, Dominique Heath and Cal transfer Carlos Strickland, combined with Barnes at running back, should give Snyder enough offensive pop, too. I'm not picking K-State to win the Big 12 in 2017. But I believe the Wildcats will be a factor.
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