How Blake Griffin's injury hurts Clippers and his future

— -- The Los Angeles Clippers announced on Monday that forward Blake Griffin will undergo a "routine arthroscopic procedure ... to remove loose bodies from his right knee." Griffin is expected to miss three to six weeks, returning in January.

What will his absence mean to the Clippers and for Griffin, who can become a free agent next summer? Let's take a look at what could be important implications.

Clippers have won without Griffin before

Playing without Griffin is nothing new for the Clippers. He missed 15 games during the 2014-15 season after developing a staph infection in his elbow and sat out for more than three months last season from a quadriceps injury, a broken bone in his right hand sustained punching a member of the Clippers' training staff and a team suspension for the altercation.

None of this prevented the Clippers from claiming home-court advantage in the first round of the Western Conference playoffs. They went 31-16 (.660, better than their overall win percentage) without Griffin last season and 9-6 (.600) without him in 2014-15.

In Griffin's absence, the Clippers rely heavily on their other superstar. While Griffin was sidelined last season, All-Star point guard Chris Paul increased his usage to 28.4 percent of the team's plays, according to NBA.com/Stats, a higher rate than any season during his career. (Paul's highest usage rate during a full season in L.A. is 24.3 percent.) Paul averaged 21.0 points and 10.5 assists in the 44 games he played without Griffin last season, as compared to 17.5 points and 9.1 assists when both All-Stars were in the lineup.

The short side of Griffin's timetable would have him out about 12 games. On the high end, the Clippers could be without him for 20 games. Based on past performance, 7-5 or 8-4 is a reasonable expectation if Griffin returns in three weeks. If he's not back for six weeks, the Clippers could be looking at a record around 12-8 or 13-7. That would put them at 32-16 or 33-15 with a little more than two months left in the season.

Might this time be worse?

The Clippers' options for replacing Griffin aren't quite as obvious as they were last season, when Paul Pierce played his best basketball of the season filing in as a small-ball power forward. Pierce remains an option, of course, but at age 39 the future Hall of Famer has barely played this season -- just 77 minutes total over seven games. When Griffin sat out earlier this month in Brooklyn, Pierce started and went 1-of-7 from the field, though the Clippers were a team-high plus-five in his 29 minutes of the overtime loss.

Starting Pierce has the upside of allowing Clippers coach Doc Rivers to keep together what has been an effective second unit. He could accomplish something similar by starting veteran Brandon Bass at power forward or Alan Anderson, who would slide starting small forward Luc Mbah a Moute to the 4 spot and provide more floor spacing.

The more extreme option would be starting Austin Rivers, who replaced Griffin when he sat out against the New Orleans Pelicans at home. Though Rivers is typically part of the bench corps, he has also started two games recently at small forward when Mbah a Moute was sidelined.

The bigger concern for the Clippers might be the surprising depth of the Western Conference. Despite starting the season 14-2, the Clippers slipped to fourth in the West at 20-8 after Sunday's loss to the Washington Wizards, behind the Golden State Warriors, San Antonio Spurs and Houston Rockets.

The Clippers are now just two games ahead of the Utah Jazz and 2.5 up on the Memphis Grizzlies, both of whom have dealt with a rash of injuries early in the season. By contrast, the Clippers have been quite healthy so far. Rookie Brice Johnson is the only Clippers player to miss more than five games.

Already, FiveThirtyEight's projections had the Clippers (55-27) finishing just two games ahead of the Jazz (53-29) on average. (Because of their poor point differential, the Grizzlies are forecast for just 44 wins on average.)

ESPN's Basketball Power Index projects a much larger gap, but it's possible an extra loss or two without Griffin could loom large for the Clippers in terms of seeding. And even staying in fourth would put the Clippers on track to play a relatively difficult first-round opponent and then the Warriors in the second round, should they get there.

Substantial hit to Griffin's pocketbook

In the long run, the biggest impact of Griffin's injury could be financial. Even a three-week absence figures to hamper Griffin's chances of making an All-NBA team, which he must do to qualify for the designated veteran player exception created in the new NBA collective bargaining agreement, according to the criteria reported by Tim Bontemps of the Washington Post

As a designated veteran player, Griffin would be eligible to make up to 35 percent of the salary cap if he opted for free agency this summer and re-signed with the Clippers. Otherwise, he'll be limited to 30 percent of the cap, a projected difference of $30 million in salary over the next five years.

Since Griffin could take advantage of the designated veteran player exception only if he re-signed with the Clippers, they would be able to offer him far more than any other team if he qualifies. Otherwise, their advantage over other suitors is limited to larger raises and the ability to offer a five-year contract as compared to four, at most, for any other team. On the other hand, if Griffin plans to re-sign with L.A. either way, the $30 million difference helps the Clippers in terms of both flexibility and luxury-tax bills going forward.

Still, there's no doubt the Clippers want Griffin back in the lineup as soon as possible without compromising his long-term health. Their chances of advancing deep in the postseason could depend on it.