Buy or sell: Spurs vs. Rockets, and Philly's starting lineup

Throughout the season, we're checking in on which big NBA trends are real or not.

In this edition: Which Texas team will finish with more wins, the Houston Rockets or San Antonio Spurs? And do the Philadelphia 76ers need to change their approach with Markelle Fultz?

Buy or sell: The Spurs will win more games than the Rockets

Let's treat this as a two-part question:

• How good are the Spurs in the post- Kawhi Leonard era?
• How bad are the Rockets without  Trevor Ariza?

The Spurs averaged 64 wins per season with a plus-8.9 point-scoring differential when led by Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge in 2015-16 and 2016-17, then won 47 games with a plus-2.9 point differential last season with Leonard playing in only nine games. With coach Gregg Popovich and Aldridge as the incumbent leaders -- running tried-and-true Spurs game plans that emphasize strong role play outside of the primary options -- last season's 47 wins are likely the floor for their potential. How close can new addition DeMar DeRozan get them to their previous Kawhi-led ceiling?

Leonard was a legitimate MVP candidate, finishing top 5 in on-court impact according to real plus minus (RPM). DeRozan is not on that level, finishing a career-best 67th in RPM last season. However, DeRozan has developed into an elite offensive performer, able to create volume opportunities for himself while improving at creating looks for others off the dribble. DeRozan ranked 15th in offensive RPM (ORPM) last season, and he brings that much-needed offensive-creation ability to San Antonio, helping Aldridge anchor that side of the ball. The Spurs currently rank ninth in the NBA with an offensive rating of 111.9 points scored per 100 possessions, up from 107.9 (17th) last season.

Their defense is giving up 110.6 points per 100 possessions, 19th in the NBA and far off their usual impressive pace. DeRozan's weakness could be playing some part, but the Spurs have also lost a lot of defensive talent. They do still have Popovich, though, and will need him to scheme them into defensive improvements for the team to succeed.

The Spurs have won five of their first seven games during the DeRozan/Aldridge era. While DeRozan likely helps them surpass last season's 47 wins by a bit, their ceiling is probably closer to 55 wins than the high-water marks under Leonard.

Meanwhile, the Rockets have lost five of their first seven games this season, including four by double figures, causing early alarm and speculation of real decline. They did lose two solid defensive role players from their forward unit, Ariza and Luc Mbah a Moute, this offseason, but they returned the primary core players of the team that won 65 games with a plus-8.5 scoring margin last season.

So why the incredibly slow start? I do acknowledge some growing pains as they integrate Carmelo Anthony into slots formerly held by 3-and-D role players, but I cite the primary culprits as suspension (to Chris Paul) and injury (to James Harden). Paul and Harden only have played 39 minutes together this season, a bad opening loss to the then-surging New Orleans Pelicans and a win over the Los Angeles Lakers. Paul was suspended for the following two games and Harden injured his hamstring in the second of those contests.

If Rockets continue to lose when Harden returns, then this becomes a real thing. Until then, I expect them to come out of their tailspin and start to resemble their team from last season. While Houston has been a bottom-10 offense, Second Spectrum's shot quality data suggests Houston will return to a top-10 scoring attack in time. The defense has been ugly, but there's still time for the team to get itself together on that end.

This is a soft sell, with the Spurs likely to win in the low 50s of games, while the Rockets likely settle in as an upper-50s win team.

Buy or sell: The 76ers need a new starting lineup

The 76ers entered this season with aspirations to make the leap from a young-but-talented, happy-to-make-the-playoffs squad to legitimate championship contenders. They began the year ranked sixth in our NBA Power Rankings. However, three weeks into the season they sit at 5-4 (tied for 12th in the NBA) with a scoring margin of plus-0.1 (16th in NBA). All five of their wins have come against teams that missed the playoffs last season, and they are 0-3 against incumbent playoff teams.

Essentially, they've been an average team. That wasn't the expected outcome of The Process.

One of the main perceived culprits for their slower-than-expected start has been the big change in their starting lineup from last season: starting Fultz and moving JJ Redick to the bench. Of course, Fultz was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2017 NBA draft who missed the majority of his rookie season.

Early on, Fultz has struggled in his new starting role, averaging 9.9 PPG on an incredibly low 44.7 true shooting percentage (TS%). The 76ers have been outscored by 3.4 points per 100 possessions with Fultz on the court, and they have outscored the opposition by 6.2 points with Fultz on the bench, by far the worst differential among Philly's starters. Meanwhile, Redick is playing some of the best basketball of his career, averaging what would be a career-high 18.4 PPG on 55.8 TS%. The 76ers are outscoring opponents by 10.3 points per 100 possessions with Redick on the court and they're being outscored by 14 points with Redick on the bench, by far the best marks on the entire team.

So should Redick take Fultz's starting spot?

Surprisingly, I am selling on this. The 76ers should continue to start Fultz for a few important reasons. One factor: Redick is still getting more than 30 minutes per game off the bench, with the perk of being able to warm up against the opposing second unit. But the main reason that Fultz needs to start is so that the Sixers can learn what they really have here.

Philly was somewhat exposed by the Boston Celtics in last year's playoffs as an offense that could be shut down by putting long, athletic defenders on Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons, hugging shooters and forcing contested jumpers with no easy looks at the rim or from behind the arc. The 76ers badly need another playmaker, one who can create offense for both himself and his teammates off the dribble. For all of his gifts, Redick isn't that. Fultz was drafted for exactly this role. The 76ers need to start Fultz now, well before the heat of the playoffs or even the trade deadline, to see if the team can thrive with him, Simmons and Embiid.

Is Fultz still playing through rust after his injury, or is he not what the Sixers thought he was? The team needs to know that answer long term, and now is the time to find out.