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Buzz: What's in store for No. 1s?
— -- Three days before her first match in Melbourne, Serena Williams was asked about her opponent.
"I don't know who I play," she said. "I never look at the draw. I guess her name is Alison. I always try to keep really focused."
We can tell you Alison Van Uytvanck is a 20-year-old from Grimbergen, Belgium. She reached the semifinals in Hong Kong late last year and is ranked No. 106 in the world. She was also dismissed from the tournament Tuesday evening in Melbourne by the really focused one.
Williams came out firing and ultimately cruised to a 6-0, 6-4 win behind 11 aces.
Beforehand, Serena admitted to getting particularly nervous before first-round matches, but at least on this occasion, her nerves did not betray her. She's the No. 1 seed, and though her run-up Down Under was scratchy at best, she remains the modest favorite.
Likewise, the No. 1 seed on the men's side, Novak Djokovic, is through to the second round after handling Slovakian qualifier Aljaz Bedene in straight sets.
Which got us to thinking ... which No. 1 player is better positioned for a dominant season? ESPN.com tennis editor Matt Wilansky, on site in Melbourne, and senior writer Greg Garber kick the subject around in today's Baseline Buzz.
Greg Garber: Not that I pay attention to these things, but eight of our 12 expert prognosticators tabbed Djokovic to win this tournament -- something he's done four times in the past seven years. Only three went with Serena -- the same number that believe Maria Sharapova and Petra Kvitova will lift the title. The recent numbers are interesting: Djokovic has won only one Grand Slam singles championship in each of the past three years, while Serena has a total of five in that time. But at the age of 33, does Serena still have the ability to truly dominate? Djokovic, who turns 28 in May, seems to have more primetime chances in the near future.
Matt Wilansky: Djokovic ended the past season about as strong as you could ask, with titles at the Paris Masters and ATP World Tour Finals. For her part, Serena won the WTA year-enders, but it didn't even take a month into this season for the histrionics to begin. At the Hopman Cup, Williams became irate during a controversial call in a doubles match. For the record, she also lost two singles matches there. Does that mean anything heading into Australia? Perhaps not. But perhaps so.
Greg Garber: Mr. tennis editor, I have given up trying to read Serena's constant outpouring of dramatic tension. I almost feel like she creates some of this stuff to avoid being bored -- or boring. Seriously, look at this field and tell me Sharapova or Kvitova could beat Serena in the final a few weeks from now. I don't think they could. But ... could Serena beat Serena in a third- or fourth-round match? When she's not sufficiently psyched, it's happening at the Slams more and more.
Matt Wilansky: Therein lies the biggest concern. On a given day, she's capable of showing up with a caffeine-depleted, why-do-I-still-play-this-game mindset. That's not going to win you points or games or matches. As for Djokovic, no one would rightfully question his motivation. He's in a good mental place. But as for his physical well-being, that's a different story. Djokovic came into Melbourne feeling unwell and skipped practices and press conferences. He says the flu has passed, but tennis players are funny creatures of habit. If he's out of sync, then ...
Greg Garber: The biggest change, which he acknowledged in his pre-tournament press conference, is his new status as a father. He and wife Jelena welcomed Stefan into the world this past October. "Obviously brought a lot of joy to me and fulfillment in my life," Djokovic said. "It was important for me to understand how I'm going to organize my life. But I think my team made sure that I'm on my schedule, that I'm still staying disciplined and kind of committed to this sport." As a father of two young children, you know what kind of chaos he's in store for. The business of tennis might actually seem a little easier going forward. My question for you, sir, is this: In winning just three major titles in the past three years -- at a time when Federer and Nadal have taken steps back -- has Djokovic underachieved?
Matt Wilansky: I think we'd be remiss and shortsighted if we said he had. Look at the body of work Djokovic has strung together. He swept Indian Wells and Miami, which, if you ask me, is a more daunting task than winning a major, then reached the final of the French and won Wimbledon. Oh, and let's not forget he also closed out the season with the aforementioned Paris Masters and ATP World Tour titles. That was just last season. What more can we realistically expect from the world No. 1 -- especially on a tour in which the ascent of the non-Big Four behemoths is more rapid than it has been in years?
Greg Garber: Well, you've put your finger on the critical issue. Both the men's and women's tours are so deep today. Weren't there eight different finalists last year in the women's majors? The men saw two first-time champions, Stan Wawrinka and Marin Cilic. Maybe it is too much to ask to see a three-title season -- in a brilliant four-year span (2004-07) Roger Federer hit the trifecta an amazing three times, followed by Nadal (2010) and Djokovic (2011). Serena only managed it once, and that was 13 years ago. Maybe it's no longer possible for anyone to dominate like that.
Matt Wilansky: Not only were there eight different Grand Slam finalists, but there were also eight different winners combined on both tours. We love to throw around the parity narrative as soon as one player isn't winning multiple majors in a single season. Perhaps this time, it's warranted. There are far more influential outsiders grasping at elite hardware today. Parity or no parity, the unpredictability factor is more robust, which is bad news for Serena and Djokovic.
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