Calvin Johnson not a first-ballot lock for HOF

ByJOHN CLAYTON
February 1, 2016, 3:30 PM

— -- SAN FRANCISCO -- Retire the notion that a retiring Calvin Johnson will end up being a first-ballot Hall of Famer. His nine-year career puts him on the fringe of Hall of Fame consideration, but more could be needed to make this a no-brainer on the first try.

This stunning news reported by colleague Adam Schefter on Sunday that Johnson has told the team he intends to retire brings back memories of Lions great Barry Sanders. Sanders was a shoo-in for Canton, but his accomplishments are a bit beyond where Johnson is sitting.

Sanders went to 10 Pro Bowls in 10 years and rushed for 15,269 yards, third best all time. He was No. 2 at the time of his retirements, and could have reached No. 1 if he had kept playing. Johnson is a seven-time Pro Bowler and has made the most of his time in the league. Only Torry Holt and Jerry Rice caught more passes than Johnson in the first nine years of any receiver's career, and he has 11,619 career yards. For receivers younger than 31, only Randy Moss has more. His tally of 46 100-yard games since 2007 is the most in the NFL. Among players who have played at least 100 games, Johnson has the best yards per game average (86.1).

In short, Megatron was a monster.

In Hall of Fame voting, though, it's not only how you start but also how you finish -- in seasons and in careers. Johnson's work could be considered unfinished for some. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, Johnson has the most receiving yards (11,619) and the most touchdown receptions (83) for any player in NFL history not to win a playoff game. Hall of Fame voters also have struggled for years with wide receivers. The game in the 1970s was geared toward running, not passing. As a result, receivers didn't put up the huge numbers and it took decades to get the best receivers of the 1970s enshrined.

The passing numbers seen in the current era are staggering. Seven receivers caught more than 100 passes this year. It took Michael Irvin 12 years to catch 750 passes. Charlie Joiner caught 750 in 17 seasons. Johnson needed nine to get to 731, but some of the new, younger receivers such as Odell Beckham Jr., Antonio Brown and Julio Jones might be able to top 700-750 yards in eight. That's how the game is evolving.

Those numbers work against Johnson. Marvin Harrison has passed through a couple of years of votes without success, and he has 1,102 catches for 14,580 yards. Henry Ellard (13,777 yards) and Holt (13,382) top Johnson, and they didn't make the list of 15 finalists for this year's Hall. Terrell Owens has the second-most yards in NFL history, yet there is no guarantee he will get accepted on the first ballot.

It won't help Johnson if Harrison, Ellard and Holt don't get in over the next five years. Johnson needs more time on the field to think Hall of Fame. A playoff win also would help.