Even with defensive concerns, Greg Monroe a great match with Milwaukee
— -- This summer presented the Milwaukee Bucks a unique opportunity. Fresh off making the playoffs ahead of schedule as the youngest team to do so in terms of minutes-weighted age, Milwaukee was able to clear max-level cap space to add a free agent before re-signing Khris Middleton to the five-year, $70 million deal he agreed to Wednesday.
Why Monroe Makes Sense
For a couple of key reasons, Monroe was an ideal fit with the Bucks. First, he fills their biggest need at center. After Larry Sanders left the team at midseason, Milwaukee filled the hole at center with the duo of Zaza Pachulia and John Henson. Pachulia delivered surprisingly strong play as a center, but he turned 31 in February, so he's unlikely to repeat that performance and not be a part of the Bucks' long-term future. Henson is a difficult positional fit because he's a center on offense and a rim protector on defense, yet struggles physically against stronger 5-men.
As compared to some other options in free agency, Monroe's age better fits the Bucks' timetable. Having just recently turned 25, Monroe was the youngest eight-figure unrestricted free agent on the market. In fact, he's only six months older than Henson. A three-year deal takes Monroe right through his prime years, allowing him to grow with Milwaukee's young talent like Middleton, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jabari Parker.
Offensively, Monroe should be a major upgrade. He can be a threat as a playmaker from the elbow, as Pachulia was in Jason Kidd's offense last season. Yet defenses must also respect Monroe's ability to score, particularly out of the post. Shot creation was the Bucks' biggest weakness after trading point guard Brandon Knight at the deadline. They were the only team to make last year's postseason with a bottom-10 offense on a per-possession basis, ranking 25th.
The arrival of Monroe, who used nearly a quarter of the Pistons' plays last season, and the return of Parker gives Milwaukee far more options offensively and will take some of the pressure off the Bucks' perimeter players to create for themselves.
Why Monroe isn't ideal
As much as Monroe upgrades Milwaukee offensively, he's a downgrade defensively. The Bucks won't want him switching out on guards in Kidd's trapping defense, which is fine. Few centers have the foot speed to consistently stay on smaller players on the perimeter. Among this year's top free agents, Amir Johnson was probably the only starting center who can switch on a regular basis.
Instead, Milwaukee will try to keep Monroe closer to the basket. Unfortunately, his defense is also lacking there. Among players who faced at least five attempts per game within five feet, per SportVU tracking available on NBA.com/Stats, Monroe allowed one of the 10 highest shooting percentages (55.1 percent). Pachulia (52.3 percent) and particularly Henson (46.8 percent) were far better, which is consistent with their reputation as rim protectors.
Parker's return exacerbates the issue. The Bucks will likely try to build an elite defense -- they were second in defensive rating a year ago -- around a starting lineup with below-average defenders at both post positions. Is length and quickness on the perimeter enough to compensate for a relatively soft interior defense? We'll find out this season.
On the plus side, Monroe still rates well defensively by ESPN's real plus-minus. He generates steals at a high rate for a big man, rarely fouls and is a strong defensive rebounder -- an important factor playing next to Parker, a poor defensive rebounder for a power forward.
Positives far outweigh negatives
Despite the concerns about Monroe's fit defensively, this deal was an easy choice for Milwaukee. After DeAndre Jordan opted not to meet with the Bucks, there was no chance of them adding a center who would be an upgrade at both ends of the court. ( Marc Gasol, sure to re-sign with the Memphis Grizzlies, is the other free agent who qualifies.)
The value is also good. While Monroe got the maximum possible, remember that amount is different for players depending on their experience. Monroe is still in the category of players with 0-6 years of experience, limited to about $16 million this season. (Depending, again, on the final cap number.) As a result, he'll make far less money over the next three seasons than the similar Brook Lopez of the Brooklyn Nets, who has seven years of experience.
In fact, the biggest financial downside of this deal might be Monroe getting a player option on the third and final year. Assuming he stays healthy and productive, Monroe will probably hit the market again in 2017 and command a raise.
By that point, however, Milwaukee should have completed building its core. The Bucks could have more than $30 million in cap space next summer, when contracts of several veterans including Pachulia expire. Another playoff appearance led by Monroe would help Milwaukee make a strong pitch in a more competitive market.
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