DFS best buys for NASCAR at Martinsville
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And you know I heart me some bonus points.
Last November was wild. Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano combined to lead 350 laps, but both finished deeeeeeeep in the field after getting in wrecks. Still, all those bonus points allowed both to finish with 48.75 points, tied for the seventh-most in the field. Not what you were hoping for with all those laps led, but still better than the usual negative number that comes with a finish outside the Top 30.
So, where do the laps led come from? You can generally count on the pole sitter to get a bunch, thanks to the style of restarts here and the importance of getting the best pit stall.
Going back to 2005, when NASCAR began tracking the stats used in daily fantasy NASCAR, the pole sitter has averaged 114.5 laps led per race here, along with 44.3 fastest laps. That's 50.775 fantasy points per race just for being the pole sitter on average.
The 22-race sample size might not be enough to draw a strong conclusion, but the numbers for the pole sitter are so far and away better than other starting position.
Want to avoid a negative number? Of course you do; I knew that already. Well, the numbers say that the most popular starting position to avoid are those in the 10-20 range.
Once again, we go back to 2005 (it's sort of my thing), and find that drivers starting in the 10-19 range put up a negative number a staggering 22.3 percent of the time. In the words of a notably difficult game on "The Price is Right," that's too much!
Now that I've gotten my obscure game show reference out of the way, it's time to get to the picks.
Remember, you get $50,000 to spend on your six-driver lineup, and it's not just your finishing position that nets points. Start/finish differential, fastest laps run and laps led also come into play.
Big spenders ($9,000 or more)
To win, you need a stud in your lineup, maybe two. The win is nice, but often the top scorer isn't the race winner. Spend wisely, my friends.
Buy high
Joey Logano ($10,200): See above for my notes on the pole sitter. Logano is the pole sitter on Sunday. But there's more than just that to my yearning to have Logano on my team this week.
Despite having never won there before, Logano has proven himself incredibly solid at Martinsville. This will be his seventh straight race he has started inside the first three rows there, and before he was wrecked out while leading in November, he had finished in the top five in three straight races. He's also increased his laps led and fastest laps totals in each of the past four races there, up to 207 laps led and 52 fastest laps there in the most recent race.
Denny Hamlin ($10,100): Last season, we remember Martinsville for the site of Logano vs. Kenseth, the Battle at the Paper Clip, and Jeff Gordon's final win. But Hamlin actually won at Martinsville last year, too, in the spring race. That's win No. 5 for Hamlin at the track, with 16 top-10 finishes in 20 starts.
Last year, Hamlin averaged 88 DraftKings points at Martinsville, the second-most of all drivers. It looks like he has regained form there after averaging 31.8 points in the previous four races. From 2009-11, Hamlin averaged 112.0 points per race, a number I think is more likely than the 31.8.
Honorable mention: Earlier in the week, I said I was going to take Jimmie Johnson ($10,400) until I had reason not to. Well, he has given me said reason due to his lackluster performance in Friday's practice and qualifying. Still, Johnson has a history of success at Martinsville, and his 24th-place starting spot gives start-finish differential possibilities. If you're looking to build a lineup without Logano as a counter play, think about using Johnson as your big-cost option.
Save your cash
Dale Earnhardt Jr. ($9,000): Junior has won recently at Martinsville, but I'm not a big fan of him being 21st in the opening round of qualifying, and following that up with another 21st in Round 2. Add in a 23rd in the opening practice, and I'm just not expecting a big day, save for a big Saturday turnaround.
Brad Keselowski ($9,500): Keselowski ran very well in the previous Cup race here, but he has shown to be a risk to have a bad race here, and fantasy NASCAR is all about avoiding the poor number just as much as selecting the big one. In three of the past four races here, he finished outside the top 30, with two races with negative points. Plus, he starts 11th, where we regularly see drivers put up negative numbers.
Mid-salary tier ($7,000-$8,999)
Depending on how you spread your lineup with big-cost drivers you'll need a couple of these guys to make your lineup work. This is a mix of drivers whose value has fallen and those on the rise.
Who I love
Martin Truex Jr. ($8,400): Truex will start 16th, but if qualifying were just one round (which it nearly was due to rain in the area), he'd be starting eighth. Last year, he started in the top three in both Martinsville races and finished sixth, leading a combined 50 laps in those races. Prior to last year, Martinsville was a weak point for Truex, averaging 18.5 points per race from 2005-14. Last year, he averaged 44 points per race at the track.
Chase Elliott ($8,000) Elliott is going to break our projections model a little bit. He has made one start at Martinsville in the Cup Series (last season in his series debut), and was sort of a hot mess. Am I going to concentrate on that, or the fact that two races ago we were at another flat, shorter track in Phoenix, and he finished eighth? Here's a hint: It's the latter.
Honorable mention: Jamie McMurray's value ($8,600) reflects on his recent performance at Martinsville much more than I thought it would. He finished second behind Jeff Gordon in the fall race. He started from the pole at Martinsville in 2014 and led 84 laps. Still, $8,600 for a driver who's finished between 10th and 21st in all five races this season seems steep. For $7,400, which is what he cost in the previous race at California, I love him. For $8,600? Not as much.
Keep your distance
Clint Bowyer ($7,200): Bowyer's overall numbers at Martinsville fall in the strong category. Plus, he has an excellent track record (get it?) at flat tracks. But Bowyer has been lost in the first five races in HScott equipment. Yeah, he's super affordable, but his best finish this season was 18th. He has finished outside the top 30 more times than he has finished inside it this season, and he's averaging 22.8 points a race.
Kurt Busch ($8,800): Busch is nearly a top-level value driver, and if you consider that he won this race two years ago and has led at least 21 laps in each of the last four races at the track, it makes sense. But in the past 20 races, that win in spring 2014 is his only top-10 finish at the track. Over the past six races at the track, he has put up zero or negative points in half of them.
Bargain-basement special (under $7,000)
Brian Vickers ($5,500) Vickers paced Friday's practice and then was in the top three in all three qualifying sessions. He is a risk starting third, especially given that in three races this season he has finished 26th, 36th and 13th for 14.8 DraftKings points per race. Still, he's so low-cost, and he's averaged nearly 15 fastest laps per race in his last four starts at the track, so he can get around the track.
Austin Dillon ($6,700) Nobody's starting outside the top 30 that I'm especially fond of, but Dillon starting 29th is close. He's really on the best run of his career. With three top-10 finishes already (and an 11th in a fourth race), he's just two off the career-high he set last season. That includes a ninth-place run at a similar track in Phoenix. Twice Dillon has started a Cup race at Martinsville outside the top 25. He finished those races 15th and 18th for an average of 44.25 fantasy points.
Paul Menard ($6,500) With a lack of quality options starting near the back of the field for start-finish differential goodness, I'll stay up at the front with the Nard Dog. He'll start fourth, but he has finished between 10th and 23rd in his past seven races at the track, so he can hang around here and stay out of trouble. Menard has never put up a negative number in his 14 career races when starting in the top four, averaging 24 points a race.
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