Fantasy 32: Key Week 4 tips on every team

ByMIKE CLAY
September 27, 2016, 2:10 PM

— -- Below are 32 notes covering each of the NFL's 32 teams from a fantasy perspective. Use these tidbits to make the best waiver-wire, trade and lineup decisions for Week 4. Be sure to check back each week of the season for a new version of the Fantasy 32.

Throughout this piece, I'll be referencing "OTD." OTD stands for opportunity-adjusted touchdowns. It is a statistic that weighs every carry/target and converts the data into one number that indicates a player's scoring opportunity. For example, if a player has an OTD of 3.0, it means that a league average player who saw the same number of targets in the same area of the field would have scored three touchdowns.

Arizona Cardinals?- John Brown totaled two receptions for 22 yards and no touchdowns on six targets during Arizona's first two games but rebounded to the tune of six receptions and 70 yards on 11 targets in Week 3. Is this an indication that Brown has returned to his 2015 form? A deeper look suggests not. Brown was on the field for 73 percent of the team's pass plays, which was more than Week 1 (70 percent) and Week 2 (49 percent) but still a much smaller role than 2015 (90 percent). Considering Brown is both a good receiver and played so often in 2014 and 2015, it's hard to imagine his role not increasing eventually, but for the time being, he's no more than a flex flier.

Atlanta Falcons - As sell-high opportunities go, they don't get much clearer than Atlanta right now. The Falcons put up 24 points on Tampa Bay, 35 on Oakland and 45 on New Orleans. Matt Ryan is the top-scoring quarterback in fantasy. Tevin Coleman is coming off a three-touchdown game and sits fifth among running backs in fantasy points despite playing second fiddle to Devonta Freeman. Speaking of which, the reigning top-scoring fantasy back sits 12th at the position in fantasy points after eclipsing 200 yards from scrimmage against the Saints. As great as all of that sounds, it's unsustainable, especially when considering the Falcons' next three opponents: Carolina, Denver and Seattle. Ouch. The Falcons have Julio Jones and a good running back duo, but this offense isn't much better than the mediocre unit from 2015. Expect a major drop in production as the competition gets tougher.

Baltimore Ravens - Steve Smith Sr. has yet to find the end zone this season, but his usage suggests a big game is right around the corner. Smith caught eight of 11 targets for 87 yards in Week 3 and is enjoying a team-high 22 percent target share so far this season. Mike Wallace might be getting the headlines (and touchdowns), but Smith is Joe Flacco's top target. On the negative side, Smith has yet to see a target while within 20 yards of the goal line. He'll need to generate more work near the end zone or he simply won't be able to push into the WR3 discussion.

Buffalo Bills - Charles Clay was once in the TE1 conversation, but he simply hasn't performed as of late despite a significant role in the Bills' offense. Clay is second on the team with 12 targets and has been on the field for 84 of the Bills' 91 pass plays. Clay was fantasy's No. 7 scoring tight end with Miami back in 2013, but we've seen a progressive decline in target volume and fantasy production over the past two-plus seasons. Clay should be on waivers in leagues that start one tight end.

Carolina Panthers - Jonathan Stewart missed the Panthers' Week 3 game with a hamstring injury, which gave us a look at the team's recipe for replacing its lead back. Cameron Artis-Payne (27 snaps) clearly benefited the most, posting 58 yards on 13 touches against a tough Vikings defense. True to form, Fozzy Whittaker (34 snaps) maintained a change-of-pace role, posting 56 yards on 10 touches. Mike Tolbert (17 snaps) was used sparingly and racked up 19 yards on four touches. Should Stewart miss any additional time, Artis-Payne is the man you want in standard leagues, and Whittaker (who was targeted six times) is the slightly better play in PPR.

Chicago Bears - Kevin White's career hasn't exactly started with a bang, but it's not for a lack of volume. White has racked up a team-high 26 targets, which works out to a massive 26 percent target share. The second-year receiver has turned the usage into 132 yards and no touchdowns on 13 receptions. White sports a 13.9 average depth of target, and three end zone targets have powered him to a decent 1.2 OTD. So White is seeing a lot of targets, including high-value looks, as well as the occasional deep look. Even in Chicago's struggling offense, the pieces are here for a breakout. Scoop White up and add him to your bench if he gets cut loose this week.

Cincinnati Bengals - Jeremy Hill continues to struggle with efficiency (3.6 yards per carry during the past two seasons), but he sure has a knack for finding paydirt. Hill scored 12 touchdowns last season and now has three this season after finding the end zone twice against a tough Denver defense in Week 3. Hill has played 15 fewer snaps than Giovani Bernard this season and remains a touchdown-dependent RB2 in non-PPR leagues.

Cleveland Browns - It's been a while since a player has handled a full-on "slash" role in the NFL, but that's exactly what we saw from Terrelle Pryor against Miami on Sunday. Pryor completed three of five pass attempts for 35 yards, ran for 21 yards and a touchdown on four attempts and caught eight of 14 targets for 144 yards. Pryor was the week's No. 4 scoring fantasy receiver and sits 17th at the position this season. Pryor has now enjoyed an absurd 31 percent target share, which clearly shows he's playing a massive role, especially with Corey Coleman out with a hand injury. Granted, Josh Gordon's Week 5 return will put a dent in Pryor's fantasy upside, but his multidimensional usage increases his floor. Pryor is a WR2 against Washington this week and figures to land, at least, in flex territory once Gordon returns. He should be owned in 10- and 12-team leagues.

Dallas Cowboys - Remember last week when I said Ezekiel Elliott looked ordinary? Well, ignore that. The rookie looked the part of this year's fourth overall pick when he gashed the Bears for 140 yards on 30 carries (4.7 YPC). Elliott still hasn't done much as a receiver, but he did catch both of his targets for 20 yards against Chicago. Elliott has been on the field for 66 percent of Dallas' snaps and has handled 73 percent of the designed runs this season. His worst weekly finish among backs was 21st back in Week 1 and he continues to trend upward. Moving forward, Elliott is a fringe top-five fantasy back.

Denver Broncos - Trevor Siemian threw one touchdown during his first two starts but delivered four scores and 312 yards at Cincinnati in Week 3. Despite the big game, Siemian is not on the verge of a fantasy breakout. He's been solid thus far but is operating in a low-volume, run-first offense that simply isn't going to score consistently through the air. Siemian is still no more than a back-end QB2, but his competent play is good news for the prospects of Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders.

Detroit Lions - Marvin Jones entered Week 3 without a touchdown this season, but his 28 percent target share suggested he was on the verge of a big game. He delivered and then some against Green Bay. Jones hauled in six of eight targets for 205 yards and two touchdowns and is now the top-scoring wide receiver in fantasy. Is it time to sell high? I don't think so. Jones is, by far, the top target in a high-volume, pass-first Detroit offense that ranks fourth in the league in touchdowns. Hold onto your midround steal and ride him to the fantasy playoffs.

Green Bay Packers - Jordy Nelson is back. The veteran has four touchdowns this season, all of which have come on an NFL-high six end zone targets. Nelson has also seen targets while at opponents' 5-, 6- and 8-yard line, confirming his massive upside near the goal line. Nelson (2.7) trails only Larry Fitzgerald (3.0) in receiving OTD on the year. Nelson has been on the field for 102 of Green Bay's 110 pass plays this season and is enjoying a 31 percent target share. He's a rock-solid WR1.

Houston Texans - Lamar Miller is averaging 3.6 yards per carry and has yet to find the end zone this season, but volume certainly hasn't been an issue for the Texans' lead back. Miller's 74 carries tie him with LeGarrette Blount for most in the NFL. Miller sits fourth in the league with 270 rushing yards, and his 10 receptions are 11th most among running backs. So why is Miller only 20th in fantasy points among backs? It's a lack of scoring opportunities. Miller carried the ball from the opponent's 3-yard line back in Week 2, but otherwise Houston has zero carries inside opponents' 12-yard line this season. Some regression to the mean will kick in here, which makes Miller a sneaky name to buy this week.

Indianapolis Colts - Jack Doyle has now seen at least four targets in each of the Colts' first three games, but he's unlikely to provide consistent fantasy value as a part-time player. Doyle has run a route on 61 (or 45 percent) of the Colts' 137 pass plays this season. That includes 19 (or 49 percent) of 39 possible routes with Donte Moncrief sidelined in Week 3. Doyle hasn't been targeted within 5 yards of the end zone since scoring on both Week 1 end zone targets. Behind T.Y. Hilton, Phillip Dorsett, Dwayne Allen and even Chester Rogers in terms of passing-game reps, Doyle is no more than a touchdown-dependent TE2.

Jacksonville Jaguars - T.J. Yeldon wasn't given much credit for a solid rookie campaign, and he hasn't exactly earned praise here in 2016 either. After an eight-touch, 28-yard performance against Baltimore in Week 3, Yeldon sits at 34 carries for 84 yards (2.5 YPC) and one touchdown this season. Yeldon's 18 targets are the third most among running backs, but he's converted the workload into only 55 yards. The volume is nice, but Yeldon has not been productive, and Chris Ivory (13 touches against Baltimore) has returned to the fold. Yeldon is a fine name for your bench, but he's a shaky flex option right now.

Kansas City Chiefs - It's been a fairly quiet start to 2016 for Jeremy Maclin, but there is plenty of reason for optimism. Maclin has been on the field for 95 percent of the Chiefs' offensive plays, which is way up from the 83 percent he averaged last year. He's run 96 percent of all possible pass routes (89 percent last year) and has handled 26 percent of the targets (28 percent). Maclin has been targeted twice while within 10 yards of the opponent's goal line but saw 14 targets in that category last year. Maclin's usage has been nearly the same as when he finished as fantasy's No. 17-scoring receiver last year. It's fair to expect a rebound.

Los Angeles Rams - Coach Jeff Fisher said during the offseason that Tavon Austin would get even more work this year and the first three weeks show that he wasn't kidding. Austin handled an 18 percent target share last year, but that has spiked to a ridiculous 33 percent in 2016. Austin averaged 5.2 targets per game and eclipsed seven targets only once all of last season. This year, he's averaging 10 per game and has at least eight in every game. Despite an ugly 47 percent catch rate, Austin sits 38th in fantasy points among wide receivers thanks to the massive volume. If this keeps up, he'll surely provide WR3 numbers moving forward.

Miami Dolphins - Arian Foster missed Sunday's game with a groin injury, which gave us a look at a few of the team's younger players at running back. Rookie Kenyan Drake (25 snaps) led the unit with nine carries for 37 yards and added a pair of receptions for 11 yards. Jay Ajayi (18 snaps) posted 28 yards and a touchdown on seven carries. Isaiah Pead (13 snaps, five touches) and Damien Williams (10 snaps, four touches) also played a part. Needless to say, Miami is utilizing a full-on committee, which grossly limits the fantasy production of any of these players. Drake is the best Week 4 play, but life won't be easy at Cincinnati.

Minnesota Vikings - It's like 2014 all over again. Adrian Peterson is out for an extended period of time, which leaves Minnesota with the Jerick McKinnon/ Matt Asiata backfield duo. Asiata got the start in Week 3, but it was McKinnon who clearly led the unit. The 2014 third-round pick touched the ball on 17 of his 35 snaps but was limited to 47 yards against a stout Panthers defense. Asiata, meanwhile, played 19 snaps and was limited to 19 yards on seven touches. McKinnon is clearly the man to own here, but note that the Vikings' upcoming slate includes the Giants and Texans, both of whom have performed well against the run.

New England Patriots - LeGarrette Blount found the end zone twice against Houston and is now tied for the NFL lead in carries (74) and rushing touchdowns (four). He also leads the league with 295 rushing yards. As productive as Blount has been, it's time to sell high. Blount has yet to see a single target, which is not something that figures to change much once Tom Brady returns. And once Brady is back, New England will surely pass the ball more often. Yes, the offense will be a bit more effective, but the Patriots have scored 72 percent of their offensive touchdowns through the air over the past two years. They sit at 44 percent through Week 3. Additionally, Dion Lewis is a candidate to return around midseason, and he handled seven carries per game last season. Plain and simple, Blount is at his ceiling right now, and that's always the time to evaluate the trade market.

New Orleans Saints - Coby Fleener was a big fantasy disappointment through Week 2, but he bounced back in a big way against Atlanta on Monday night. Fleener hauled in seven of 11 targets for 109 yards and a touchdown. Fleener is suddenly 14th at the position in fantasy points and is averaging a healthy 7.3 targets per game this season. Even if Fleener lacks efficiency, the Saints' high-volume, pass-heavy, high-scoring offense is sure to generate a ton of fantasy production. Moving forward, Fleener's massive ceiling keeps him in the TE1 mix.

New York Giants - Eli Manning threw three touchdowns in Week 1 but has registered only one during his past two games. Manning has, however, reached 350 passing yards in both of those games, and let us not forget that he finished one off the NFL lead with 35 passing scores last season. And that was with Dwayne Harris working the slot, as opposed to Sterling Shepard here in 2016. Manning is a great bet to rebound, but it might not come until after a tough Week 4 trip to Minnesota. Moving forward, he's a back-end QB1.

New York Jets - Brandon Marshall has yet to score a touchdown this season, but a closer look at his usage suggests it's a fluke. Marshall, who leads the NFL in receiving OTD (53.6) since 2011, sits ninth in the league in the category through three weeks of play. Marshall's 2.1 mark suggests he should have closer to two scores this season. Marshall has yet to catch any of his five end zone targets after hauling in nine of 21 last season. Marshall wasn't 100 percent healthy in Week 3, but he still ran 44 of 45 possible routes and was targeted 10 times. Touchdown regression will kick in soon, so he's a safe hold or buy low.

Oakland Raiders - Michael Crabtree finished as fantasy's No. 20 wide receiver last season, but the veteran was more of a consistent flex option than he was a high-ceiling producer. We've seen more of the same here in 2016, as Crabtree has already posted at least 87 yards or a touchdown in each of his three outings, but has posted 24th-, 36th-, and 20th-place weekly finishes. Crabtree is used primarily as a possession receiver, which limits his upside but makes him a bit more appealing in PPR formats. He's a solid flex option in standard leagues and a WR3 in PPR.

Philadelphia Eagles - After weekly finishes of 11th and 23rd against Cleveland and Chicago, respectively, it was fair to wonder whether? Carson Wentz was nothing more than a back-end QB2 in fantasy. It's hard not to consider him part of the QB1 discussion, however, after he dismantled the Steelers defense in Week 3 en route to the seventh-most fantasy points at the position. Wentz now has a pair of top-12 weeks under his belt and sits 10th at the position in fantasy points. He has a 5-0 touchdown-to-interception mark and has been off-target on 12 percent of his throws, which trails only Eli Manning and Drew Brees for best in the league. Wentz has done all this damage without running much, and that's something that figures to change down the stretch. Wentz will be a fringe QB1 when the Eagles come out of their Week 4 bye to take on Detroit.

Pittsburgh Steelers - DeAngelo Williams came into the 2016 like a lion and went out like a lamb. Fantasy's top-scoring running back after Week 2 totaled 44 yards on 12 touches in an absolute beat-down by the Eagles in Week 3. Williams now heads to the bench, where he figures to do nothing more than spell Le'Veon Bell when the workhorse back needs a rest. During the five full games Bell played last season, Williams played a grand total of 31 snaps and carried the ball 13 times. Bell is a strong RB1 play against the Chiefs this week, and Williams should be stashed on your bench as a high-ceiling handcuff.

San Diego Chargers - The Week 3 meeting between the Chargers and Colts provided an excellent case study on cornerback usage. As wide receiver/cornerback showdowns go, the general consensus often assumes that a team's No. 1 receiver will be shadowed by the opposing No. 1 cornerback. However, many times that is not the case and top-end corners rarely (yes, rarely) cover the slot. We saw this Sunday as T.Y. Hilton delivered a massive 11-target, eight-catch, 174-yard performance. Top-end corner Jason Verrett shadowed Hilton on 17 of his 20 routes run from the perimeter, but only four of 15 from the slot. Hilton's 63-yard touchdown came after lining up inside. Set for a meeting with New Orleans in Week 4, Verrett figures to follow Brandin Cooks when he's on the perimeter, but Cooks lines up in the slot 35 percent of the time, so he'll dodge Verrett during those plays.

San Francisco 49ers - Jeremy Kerley paced the 49ers with five targets in Week 3 and was also tops on the team with 11 in Week 1. Kerley's 23 percent target share is significant, but it hasn't allowed much fantasy production. Kerley has caught 12 of his 22 targets for 114 yards and no touchdowns, and is an undersized target who simply doesn't get much work near the goal line. He failed to catch his only end zone target this year and has no other looks within 15 yards of the end zone. Kerley is nothing more than a desperation flex in PPR leagues.

Seattle Seahawks - Thomas Rawls missed Sunday's game, which set up yet another strong performance from Christine Michael?at running back. "C-Mike" scored the first two touchdowns of his career and was on the field for 43 of Seattle's 65 offensive snaps. He put up 106 yards on 20 carries and is now averaging 5.0 YPC on 136 carries with the Seahawks. Rawls is out for a month or so with a fibula injury, which means Michael is very much in the RB1 discussion moving forward. He's only 74.9 percent owned in ESPN leagues, so make sure you check your waiver wire closely.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Cameron Brate is locked in as the Buccaneers' top tight end after the team released Austin Seferian-Jenkins last week. Brate certainly made a splash in his first game without Seferian-Jenkins in the mix, posting five receptions, 46 yards and two touchdowns on 10 targets. Brate's two scores were no fluke, as he caught one of three end zone targets. He ran the other touchdown in from 1 yard out and was targeted one additional time inside the opponent's 5 yard line. Brate easily paced the NFL in receiving OTD this week and now sits fourth overall in the category. If this usage keeps up, Brate will be a contender for eight touchdowns. He's a mid-pack TE2 in the meantime.

Tennessee Titans - Tajae Sharpe continues to generate excessive amounts of hype, but the production simply hasn't been there. Sharpe was an excellent find in the fifth round of April's draft, but the Titans offense has unsurprisingly limited the rookie's fantasy production. Through three games, Sharpe has caught 14 of 25 targets for 157 yards and no touchdowns. He sits 60th among wide receivers in fantasy points and hasn't posted a weekly finish better than 38th (Week 1). Production will eventually follow Sharpe's 24 target share, but he won't be a consistent asset in one of the league's lowest-scoring offenses.

Washington Redskins - Jamison Crowder is 5 feet 8, 185 pounds, but you wouldn't know if you looked at his usage near the goal line this season. Crowder's 2.2 receiving OTD is the fifth highest in the entire league. The receiver is tied for ninth with four end zone targets (one catch), and has been targeted four additional times within 6 yards of the goal line. Crowder has big-play ability (he also has a 55-yard touchdown this season), trails Jordan Reed by one for the team lead in targets and is clearly being used near the goal line. Crowder should be in starting lineups and, if this continues, he will push his way into the WR2 discussion in PPR leagues.